GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ - Less than four months remain before the world learns what the Year-2000 computer bug has in store for the systems and people worldwide who depend on computer accuracy. It is unknown whether mayhem or sighs of relief will break out on January 1, 2000, when some computers mistakenly believe William McKinley is U.S. president. But according to a new Gallup survey, the vast majority of Americans now feel fairly confident that any problems that ensue from the Y2K programming glitch will be minor, at worst, and will last for only a few days or weeks, at most.
The survey also documents widespread public confidence in the preparedness efforts of every level of government in the United States, as well as in major businesses and corporations. Perhaps as a result, few Americans are thinking seriously about preparing for Y2K failures.
The new Gallup survey, conducted August 25-29 in partnership with USA Today and the National Science Foundation (NSF), is the third in a special series of polls tracking public awareness of and anxiety about the Y2K issue. The tracking trends show that the percentage of Americans who have heard "a great deal" about Y2K has increased over the past nine months -- from 39% to 64% -- but that their concern over its potential impact has dropped. In December 1998, more than half the public, 56%, said they were "very" or "somewhat" concerned about the potential problem, and just 44% said they were "not very" or "not at all" concerned. Today, just 36% of Americans say they are concerned, while close to two-thirds, 64%, seem relatively unconcerned.
All of this is not to say Americans think computers will perform flawlessly. Most expect Y2K to create some problems around the world, including 11% who expect major problems to occur and another 71% who expect minor problems. Just 15% think there will be no problems at all. However, these figures reflect a calmer public than the one interviewed last year, when close to one-third, 34%, expected major problems.
Americans are fretting even less about the impact of Y2K on their personal lives. Just 7% think it will cause major problems for themselves, personally, and another 52% expect minor problems, while 40% expect no problems at all. This concern level is also down from December 1998, when 14% expected major problems, and only 30% anticipated no problems.
Long Grocery Lines on New Year's Eve?
Strong proof of Americans' complacency is found in their
top-of-mind answers to the question "What specific actions or
precautions are you planning to take as January 1, 2000
approaches?" Despite the recommendations of some government
officials to stock up on supplies as you would for a bad storm,
half of all national adults, 51%, currently have no plans to take
any precautionary steps. This is up slightly from March of this
year, when 44% said they would not take any particular steps.
Among the remaining Americans who say they do have plans, the most common precaution is stocking up on food, mentioned by 21%, followed by stocking up on water, at 15%. Another 7% plan to stock up on other types of household supplies, such as candles, radios, and firewood. Approximately 14% will make sure to have extra cash. In an indication of how few Americans harbor serious fears about the impact of Y2K, just 6% plan to buy a generator or heater and 3% plan to store extra gasoline.
When Americans are asked separately about some specific possible precautions, the percentage who say they will take various steps is somewhat higher. For instance, when the public is probed, 51% say they will obtain special confirmation or documentation of bank balances and other financial records (compared to 8% in the unaided question), 43% say they will avoid travelling on airplanes, and 36% say they will stockpile food and water. Still, even when respondents are alerted to the idea in the form of a question, only 25% say they will withdraw a large amount of extra cash and only 21% will stock up on gasoline.
Faith in Government and Industry
For months, government agencies, utility companies, and banking
institutions, among other groups, have waged public information
campaigns assuring citizens and customers that Y2K preparations are
proceeding nicely. It would appear these assurances are working.
Overall confidence that various sectors will have properly upgraded
their computer systems by the new year ranges from 91% for United
States corporations and large businesses to 85% for state
governments, 83% for local governments and 81% for the federal
government. These figures represent an increase of six to twelve
points since the last Gallup/USA Today/NSF survey in March. Perhaps
accordingly, less than half the public believes that failures in
critical systems such as air traffic control, banking, food and
retail distribution, hospitals, emergency 911 networks, or nuclear
power or defense systems are likely.
Substantially lower confidence is seen in relation to U.S. small businesses, with only 65% of Americans saying they are confident these businesses will be properly upgraded; however, 87% of working Americans do have confidence in their own employers.
The one area where Americans continue to express significant doubt is in the preparedness of foreign governments. Almost half the public, 46%, lacks confidence that governments of other developed and industrialized countries will be prepared. Three-quarters feel unsure about the readiness of governments in Third World and other less developed countries.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 1,014 adults, 18 years and older,
conducted August 25-29, 1999. For results based on this sample, one
can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus
3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
As you may know, most computer systems around the world have to be reprogrammed so that they can accurately recognize the date once we reach the Year 2000. Do you think that computer mistakes due to the Year-2000 issue will cause major problems, minor problems, or no problems at all?
| Major problems | Minor problems | No problems at all | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 11% | 71% | 15% | 3% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 21 | 65 | 12 | 2 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 34 | 51 | 10 | 5 |
Do you think that computer mistakes due to the Year-2000 issue will cause major problems, minor problems or no problems at all for you personally?
| Major problems | Minor problems | No problems at all | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 7% | 52% | 40% | 1% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 9 | 56 | 32 | 3 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 14 | 53 | 30 | 3 |
How much have you seen or heard about the Year-2000 computer bug problem, sometimes called the Millennium Bug or the Y2K bug, before now -- a great deal, some, not much, or nothing at all?
| A great deal | Some | Not much | Nothing at all | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 64% | 24% | 9% | 3% | *% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 56 | 30 | 11 | 3 | * |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 39 | 40 | 13 | 8 | * |
Overall, how concerned are you about the Y2K computer bug problem -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned?
| Very concerned | Somewhat concerned | Not too concerned | Not at all concerned | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 6% | 30% | 45% | 19% | *% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 16 | 40 | 31 | 13 | * |
To the extent Y2K computer problems occur, how long do you think they will last -- for only a few days around January 1, 2000, for several weeks, for several months to a year, or for more than a year?
| A few days | Several weeks | Several months to a year | More than a year | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 37% | 34% | 22% | 5% | 2% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 23 | 30 | 37 | 7 | 3 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 15 | 30 | 38 | 11 | 6 |
Do you or your household plan to take any steps to prepare or
protect yourself from problems that might result from the Y2K
computer problem? IF YES: What specific actions or precautions are
you planning to take as January 1, 2000 approaches? [OPEN-ENDED; UP
TO FIVE RESPONSES ALLOWED]
BASED ON - 497 - ASKED FORM A; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Mar 5-7, 1999 | Aug 25-29, 1999 | |
|---|---|---|
| Stocking up on food | 22% | 21% |
| Stocking up on water | 12 | 15 |
| Having more cash on hand | 11 | 10 |
| Keeping better financial records/closer monitoring | 9 | 8 |
| Stocking up on household supplies (candles, radio, firewood, etc.) | 6 | 7 |
| Stocking up on gasoline | 5 | 3 |
| Purchasing a generator/heater | 4 | 6 |
| Updating computer | 4 | 4 |
| Withdrawing cash from various accounts | 4 | 4 |
| Saving more money | 2 | 1 |
| Making sure everything is Y2K compliant | 1 | * |
| No air travel | 1 | 1 |
| Other (miscellaneous) | 7 | 6 |
| No, do not plan to take any steps | 44 | 51 |
| No opinion | 7 | 5 |
| Total: | 139% | 142% |
For each of the following, please say whether that is
something you probably will or will not do in order to protect
yourself against problems associated with the Y2K computer bug. How
about ... ? [RANDOM ORDER]
BASED ON - 517 - ASKED FORM B; ± 5 PCT PTS
Y2K PREPARATION SUMMARY
| Dec 9-13, 1998 | Mar 5-7, 1999 | Aug 25-29, 1999 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Obtain bank confirmation | 65% | 66% | 51% |
| Avoid travelling on airplanes | 47 | 54 | 43 |
| Stockpile food and water | 26 | 39 | 36 |
| Withdraw large amount of cash | 31 | 30 | 25 |
| Stock up on gasoline | -- | -- | 21 |
| Buy generator/wood stove | 17 | 24 | 14 |
| Withdraw all money from bank | 16 | 15 | 10 |
Thinking about the U.S. economy, which of the following statements best describes the possible effect you think the Y2K bug will have on the economy -- [It will cause a total economic breakdown or catastrophe, it will cause serious problems in the economy such as slowing production or creating a recession, it will cause only minor problems in the economy, or it will have no negative impact on the economy]?
| Economic breakdown/ catastrophe | Serious problems | Only minor problems | No negative impact on the economy | Other/ No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 2% | 13% | 63% | 20% | 2% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 4 | 25 | 55 | 14 | 2 |
Thinking more generally about the kind of problems which could possibly be created by the Y2K computer bug, which of the following best describes how serious these problems will be in the United States -- [Y2K will result in disasters which could cause the loss of human life, Y2K will cause economic and social disruptions, but will not be life threatening, Y2K will cause only minor disruptions and inconveniences, or Y2K will have no negative impact on people's lives]?
| Disasters which could cause loss of human life | Economic and social disruptions, but not life threatening | Only minor disruptions and inconveniences | No negative impact on people's lives | Other/ No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 3% | 15% | 69% | 11% | 2% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 6 | 28 | 54 | 9 | 3 |
Next I'm going to read some specific problems. As I read each one, please say whether you think it likely or unlikely to occur as a result of Y2K. First, ... . Next, ... . [RANDOM ORDER]
Y2K OUTLOOK SUMMARY
| Dec 9-13, 1998 | Mar 5-7, 1999 | Aug 25-29, 1999 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banking/accounting will fail | 63% | 55% | 48% |
| Air traffic control will fail | 46 | 43 | 35 |
| Food/retail distribution will fail | 37 | 40 | 35 |
| Emergency/ "911" will fail | 36 | 32 | 27 |
| Hospital equipment/services will fail | 33 | 32 | 22 |
| Nuclear power/defense systems will fail | 30 | 27 | 18 |
| Passenger cars/trucks will fail | 17 | -- | 12 |
As you may know, efforts are currently underway throughout the country to upgrade computer systems in order to correct the Y2K computer problem. We'd like to know whether you are generally confident or NOT confident that each of the following levels of government and business will have upgraded their computer systems before any Y2K problems can occur. How about ... ?
CONFIDENCE SUMMARY
| Dec 9-13, 1998 | Mar 5-7, 1999 | Aug 25-29, 1999 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. corporations/large businesses | 82% | 85% | 91% |
| Your employer or workplace | -- | -- | 87 |
| Your state government | 73 | 77 | 85 |
| Your local government | 68 | 71 | 83 |
| U.S. federal government | 68 | 73 | 81 |
| Small U.S. businesses | 56 | 54 | 65 |
| Foreign governments/developed | 48 | 44 | 49 |
| Foreign governments/less developed | 18 | 15 | 19 |
Do you have a personal computer in your household, or not?
| Yes, have computer | No, do not have | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 60% | 40% | *% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | -- | -- | -- |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 56 | 44 | * |
Do you, personally, use your home computer to connect to the
Internet or an on-line service such as Prodigy or America
Online?
BASED ON - 661 - WHO HAVE HOME COMPUTER; ± 4 PCT
PTS
| Yes, use computer for Internet | No, do not | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 74% | 26% | *% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | -- | -- | -- |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 66 | 33 | 1 |
Do you use a computer at work or school?
| Yes, use computer | No, do not use it | Doesn't apply/ no opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 58% | 35% | 7% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | -- | -- | -- |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 59 | 38 | 3 |
Do you, personally, use the Internet or other computer
on-line service at your place of work or school?
BASED ON - 622 - WITH COMPUTER AT WORK; ± 4 PCT
PTS
| Yes, use Internet | No, do not use it | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 66% | 34% | 0% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | -- | -- | -- |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 63 | 37 | 0 |
Do you know for sure whether your home computer or computers
are programmed to comprehend the Year-2000 date field correctly, or
are you unsure?
BASED ON - 661 - WITH HOME COMPUTER; ± 4 PCT PTS
| Yes, programmed correctly | Unsure/NO, NOT PROGRAMMED CORRECTLY (VOL.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 57% | 39% | 4% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | -- | -- | -- |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 31 | 67 | 2 |
Do you plan to take steps to make sure your computer is
programmed correctly or are you going to wait and see what
happens?
BASED ON - 274 - WHO ARE NOT SURE HOME COMPUTER IS PROGRAMMED
CORRECTLY; ± 7 PCT PTS
| Will take steps | Wait and see what happens | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 34% | 63% | 3% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | -- | -- | -- |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 49 | 49 | 2 |
(VOL.) volunteered response