GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
London, U.K. -- William Hague's fear that the Blair government might win an early referendum on the single currency finds considerable support in the latest Gallup survey.
It emerges that opposition to the euro is widespread but not necessarily intense. Millions of people might be persuaded to change their minds. One factor in the Government's favour is the belief that -- whatever people may think or want at the moment -- the euro is bound to come to Britain in the end. A large proportion of Gallup's respondents approach the issue with a certain fatalism.
Another factor working in the Government's favour -- at least for the time being -- is that many voters appear to take their cues on European issues from the party they currently support rather than deciding which party to support on the basis of its stance on Europe.
As a result, so long as Tony Blair and Labour remain popular, their approach to the euro and Europe enjoys a built-in advantage. However, if they became unpopular, that advantage would disappear -- and might turn into a liability. The outcome of any euro referendum could well depend on its timing.
Many voters feel ambivalence and uncertainty about the euro and Europe. Asked how they would vote in a referendum held during the next few months, 64 percent of respondents say they would oppose joining the euro and abolishing the pound. Only 28 percent would vote in favour.
However, if the question is reworded to allow for a Government recommendation in two or three years' time that Britain should join the single currency, the majority is cut by more than half -- from 36 points to 15 points. The finding is significant given that a referendum would be held only if the Blair Government did recommend in favour.
Moreover, a lead from their own party proves crucial in the thinking of many voters. Gallup's data show that, whereas in response to the first of the above pair of questions Labour supporters divided 50 to 39 percent against the euro, in response to the second they divided 50 to 38 percent in favour -- a reversal.
Conservative supporters could be forgiven for supposing that, because popular opposition to the euro coincides with the Conservative Party's own policies, the Tories would be most voters' preferred party on Europe in general.
Not so. As the figures make clear, Labour is more popular than the Tories on Europe partly because Labour is more popular than the Tories in general. The great majority of both Tory and Labour supporters prefer their own party on Europe -- and there are currently more Labour supporters than Tory supporters. Liberal Democrats lean toward Labour.
Some Labour supporters almost certainly do not care much about the euro one way or the other and simply allow their partisan preference to trump any negative feelings they may have about it. Others may be unhappy about the euro but still prefer Tony Blair's overall approach to the European Union to that of William Hague.
Further signs of potential fluidity can be found in the survey findings. Fifty-seven percent of respondents have a benign view of Britain's joining the euro at some stage even though a large proportion would vote "no" in an early referendum.
As the figures also show, considerably fewer, 40 percent, appear implacably opposed to the euro. Additional Gallup data show that twice as many Tory as Labour supporters are firmly in the anti-euro camp.
Approaching the issue from another angle, Gallup's interviewers finally asked: "Whether or not one likes the idea of Britain joining the single currency, do you agree or disagree that it is inevitable that Britain will join it sooner or later and we may as well get used to the idea?"
The responses suggest that large numbers of people are reconciled -- whether happily or unhappily -- to the idea that the euro will replace the pound sometime in the coming years or decades. The proportion of those believing that Britain's joining the euro is inevitable, 68 percent, has changed little since Gallup first asked the question two years ago.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,462 respondents, aged 18+, from across Great Britain conducted May 28-29, 2001. Respondents who reported that they were not on the electoral register (5%) or definitely would not vote (6%) in the general election on June 7 have been excluded. For results based on a sample of this size, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points.
Anthony King is professor of government at Essex University, and is a political analyst and a special contributor for The Daily Telegraph. This article is reprinted by the Gallup Poll News Service with permission from The Daily Telegraph.
