GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
Texas Governor George W. Bush maintains a commanding lead over all other challengers in the contest for the Republican Party's nomination for the 2000 presidential election. Just over half--52%--of all Republicans across the country would vote for Bush, compared with 20% for former Red Cross President Elizabeth Dole, and 9% for former Vice President Dan Quayle. No other candidate among seven mentioned receives as much as five percent of Republican support. Businessman Steve Forbes, who announced his candidacy this week, receives just 1% of the vote. Among currently registered Republicans, the numbers are similar, with Bush receiving 54% support, Dole 18%, and Quayle 8%.
In a hypothetical general election presidential contest between Bush and Vice President Al Gore, Bush leads by 15 percentage points, 56% to 41%. Dole also beats Gore, but by just eight percentage points, 52% to 44%. On the other hand, Gore beats Forbes by a 58% to 37% margin. Among registered voters, the margins of the two front-runners are somewhat smaller, with Bush leading Gore by 13 percentage points, and Dole leading Gore by just three points.
Democratic Nomination Contest
The Democratic contest has only two announced candidates, Vice
President Gore and former Senator Bill Bradley. The Reverend Jesse
Jackson may enter the contest as well and was included in this
poll's ballot of Democratic contenders. Among all Democrats, Gore
leads Bradley by 58% to 21%, while Jackson receives 15% support.
Among currently registered Democrats, support for Gore is 62%,
Bradley 20%, and Jackson 12%.
Racial minorities represent about a fifth of Democrats and are split about evenly between Gore (40%) and Jackson (39%), with Bradley receiving 14%. Just among blacks, Jackson leads Gore by 44% to 38%. Among whites, Gore receives 63% support, compared with 23% for Bradley and 8% for Jackson.
Compared to Dole, Support for Bush Stronger Among Men and
Elderly
In the hypothetical match-up between Gore and each of the two
Republican front-runners, the gender factor works slightly in
Elizabeth Dole's favor among women, but backfires strongly among
men. Among women, for example, Bush has a 6-point lead over Gore,
while Dole enjoys a 12-point lead, suggesting that women may be
drawn to Dole in part because she is a woman. However, among men,
Bush leads Gore by 25 percentage points, while Dole enjoys only a
2-point advantage. These results suggest that many men may be
reluctant to vote for a woman.
In the general election contest, Bush also enjoys greater support among the elderly than does Dole. A majority of Americans across all age groups supports Bush over Gore, with especially large majorities of people over the age of 50 supporting Bush. Among those in the preretirement age group of 50-64, Bush leads Gore by 21 points. And among those over 65, Bush's lead is 17 points. Dole, by contrast, trails Gore by 11 percentage points among people over the age of 65, and leads Gore by just 10 points among the pre-retirement group. Both Republicans lead Gore by about 12 percentage points among those under the age of 50.
For results based on the sample of national adults (N=1,025) the margin of error is ±3 percentage points. For results based on the sample of Republicans (N=439) or based on the sample of Democrats (N=492) the margin of error is ±5 percentage points.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2000.
| National Adults | Republicans | Democrats | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Former Tennessee Governor, Lamar Alexander | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Family Research Council Chairman, Gary Bauer | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Political commentator, Patrick Buchanan | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Texas Governor, George W. Bush | 40 | 52 | 29 |
| Former Red Cross President, Elizabeth Dole | 23 | 20 | 26 |
| Businessman, Steve Forbes | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Ohio Congressman, John Kasich | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Arizona Senator, John McCain | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| Former Vice-president, Dan Quayle | 6 | 9 | 4 |
| New Hampshire Senator, Bob Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Other (vol.) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| None/Don't plan to vote | 8 | 1 | 6 |
| No opinion | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 100% | 100% | 100% |
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2000?
| National Adults | Republicans | Democrats | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Former New Jersey Senator, Bill Bradley | 27 | 35 | 21 |
| Vice President, Al Gore | 42 | 26 | 58 |
| The Reverend Jesse Jackson | 14 | 11 | 15 |
| Other (vol.) | * | 0 | * |
| None/Wouldn't vote | 14 | 26 | 4 |
| No opinion | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 100% | 100% | 100% |
If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or), George W. Bush, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or), George W. Bush, the Republican]?
| Al Gore | G.W. Bush | No Opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (NA) 99 Mar 12-14 | 41 | 56 | 3 |
| (NA) 99 Mar 5-7 | 41 | 56 | 3 |
| (NA) 99 Feb 19-21 | 43 | 54 | 3 |
| (NA) 99 Jan 8-10 | 47 | 48 | 5 |
| (NA) 98 May 8-10 | 46 | 50 | 4 |
If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and former Red Cross President Elizabeth Dole, were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or), Elizabeth Dole, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or), Elizabeth Dole, the Republican]?
| Al Gore | Elizabeth Dole | No Opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (NA) 99 Mar 12-14 | 44 | 52 | 4 |
| (NA) 99 Mar 5-7 | 45 | 50 | 5 |
| (NA) 99 Jan 8-10 | 47 | 49 | 4 |
(NA) = National Adults
(vol.) = volunteered response