GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
The latest Gallup poll, taken one week before the midterm congressional elections, finds the Republican and Democratic parties running neck and neck in the race for control of Congress.
Asked which Congressional candidate they plan to support in their local House district, 49% of likely voters across the country now say they plan to vote Republican; 47% say they will vote Democratic. The Republican and Democratic parties have been close on this important indicator of the congressional vote since July of this year, with the lead switching back and forth between the two parties from survey to survey.
Other Gallup measures of the public's political mood suggest that incumbent officeholders will do well on Election Day. Two-thirds of Americans say that their own member of Congress deserves re-election, up substantially from 1994. Close to half the public, 47%, now says it approves of the job Congress is doing, which represents a positive evaluation of Congress compared to previous years.
Since Republicans are the majority power in Congress, it might seem logical that these perceptions bode well for them in the election. Still, given the close breakdown of seats held by each party in Congress (228 Republicans vs. 206 Democrats), and given the closeness of current voter preferences on Gallup's "generic ballot," public satisfaction with the status quo does not necessarily mean that the Republicans will retain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Tuesday's Turnout Will Determine Outcome
With less than 40% of Americans expected to vote in the midterm
elections next Tuesday, Gallup's latest results underscore the
significance of voter turnout on the outcome of the election. In
order to hold on to their current majority, the GOP needs
Republican voters to turn out in substantially greater numbers than
Democratic voters, as they did in 1994. The potential for this type
of highly differential turnout is not evident in the latest Gallup
polling and thus, as of today, the ability of the Republicans to
maintain majority control of the House would appear to be in
jeopardy.
Voter Turnout Not Always a Factor
Prior to the Republicans taking control of Congress in 1994, voter
turnout was not usually an important factor in determining the
control of Congress, as public support for Democratic candidates
far exceeded support for Republicans.
From 1954 through 1992, in fact, Democrats typically led Republicans by 10-20 points among all national adults in Gallup's "generic congressional ballot" poll measure; on occasion--such as in 1974--the Democrats held more than a 30-point advantage.
Thus, given the Democrats' strong numerical superiority among the general public, even a large Republican voter turnout in those elections affected only the degree to which Democrats maintained control of the House, not the basic question of majority control.
The Partisan Transformation of 1993
The gap between public support for Republican and Democratic
congressional candidates began to shrink in 1993, and by 1994 the
two parties had become highly competitive.
Among national adults surveyed by Gallup in 1994, for example, the Democrats' advantage over Republicans in the congressional preference question had dropped to single digits, and in Gallup's final pre-election survey in 1994 the Democratic advantage was only four percentage points. Among likely voters in this same survey, Republicans led Democrats by seven points—which turned out to be the actual margin of Republican victory in the national two-party vote.
Thus, given the closeness of Republican and Democratic congressional preferences in 1994, voter turnout made the critical difference, and allowed the Republicans to capture a majority of seats in Congress for the first time in fifty years.
The Current Competitive System
The Republicans have maintained their competitive positioning with
the Democrats in the four years since they took control of
Congress, but have not managed to become the solid majority choice
of voters-- as was the case for the Democrats in years past. Thus,
support for Republican candidates among all Americans – not
just likely voters -- is currently very similar to what it was in
November 1994, just prior to the Republicans winning majority
control of the House.
There is a difference between this year and 1994, however, in terms of the projected pool of likely voters. In 1994, final pre-election survey results among those determined to be most likely to vote showed a substantial 7-point Republican lead. This year, as noted, the Republicans are ahead by only two percentage points among this same likely voter group.
A Gallup analysis of eleven previous midterm elections suggests that to maintain a majority of seats in Congress, the Republicans will need to win more than 50% of all votes cast for Congress across the country. Whether their current two-point lead over Democrats among likely voters is sufficient for the Republicans to retain their majority control is unclear at this point.
Outlook for Tuesday
Between today and November 3, two factors will be important in
determining the outcome of the congressional elections. First,
there could be last minute shifts in Americans' vote preferences,
including the impact of undecided voters who must finally make up
their minds. Second, turnout could skew more heavily to voters of
one party or the other than is evident in the latest polling.
None of this is lost on the two political parties, whose last minute campaign tactics appear to be focused almost entirely on activating their hard-core supporters to turn out and vote in key congressional districts across the country. Major efforts are also underway by labor unions, Christian conservative groups and others to mobilize their voters over this final weekend. In an election this close, these types of turnout efforts could make an important difference.
Clinton Impeachment Not Emerging as Major Election
Factor
As of today, the Clinton impeachment issue does not appear to be a
major factor affecting voter decision-making or turnout. While
close to half of likely voters say they will be sending a message
about the Lewinsky matter with their vote, these voters are evenly
split between those who say they will be sending a message that
they support Clinton and those who say they oppose him. Previous
polling this month also shows that the forthcoming impeachment
proceedings are the public's lowest priority among nine issues
tested in terms of importance in deciding the November 3rd
Congressional vote.
Survey Methods
The results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 1,013 adults, 18 years and older,
conducted October 23-25, 1998. For results based on samples of this
size, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the error
attributable to sampling and other random effects could be plus or
minus 3 percentage points. Results based on likely voters include
interviews with 519 adults and have a margin of error of plus or
minus 5 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Table 1: GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT
1998 Semi-Final and 1950-1994 Final Pre-Election Figures Based on
Likely Voters
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district – [ROTATE: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate]?
| Democratic Candidate | Republican Candidate | Democratic Advantage/Disadvantage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 (semi final) |
49 | 51 | -2 |
| 1994 | 46.5 | 53.5 | -7 |
| 1990 | 54 | 46 | 8 |
| 1986** | -- | -- | -- |
| 1982 | 55 | 45 | 10 |
| 1978 | 55 | 45 | 10 |
| 1974 | 60 | 40 | 20 |
| 1970 | 53 | 47 | 6 |
| 1966 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 5 |
| 1962 | 55.5 | 45.5 | 10 |
| 1958 | 57 | 43 | 14 |
| 1954 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 3 |
| 1950 | 51 | 49 | 2 |
| (**) Gallup did not measure Generic Ballot in this year | |||
Table 2: GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT
1998 Semi-Final and 1950-1994 Final Pre-Election Figures Based on
National Adults
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district – [ROTATE: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate]?
| Democratic Candidate | Republican Candidate | Democratic Advantage/Disadvantage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 (semi final) |
52 | 48 | 4 |
| 1994 | 52 | 48 | 4 |
| 1990* | 56 | 44 | 11 |
| 1986** | -- | -- | -- |
| 1982* | 59 | 41 | 18 |
| 1978 | 62 | 38 | 23 |
| 1974 | 68 | 32 | 36 |
| 1970 | 59 | 41 | 18 |
| 1966 | 51 | 49 | 1 |
| 1962 | 60 | 40 | 20 |
| 1958 | 58 | 42 | 16 |
| 1954 | 63 | 37 | 26 |
| 1950 | 51 | 50 | 1 |
| (*) In 1990 and
1982, Registered Voter figures are use (**) Gallup did not measure Generic Ballot in this year |
|||
Table 3: GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT
1998 Semi-Final and 1950-1994 Final Pre-Election Figures
Summary of Democratic Advantage/Disadvantage
| National Adults | Likely Voters | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 (semi final) |
4 | -2 | |
| 1994 | 4 | -7 | |
| 1990 | 11 | 8 | |
| 1986** | -- | -- | |
| 1982 | 18 | 10 | |
| 1978 | 23 | 10 | |
| 1974 | 36 | 20 | |
| 1970 | 18 | 6 | |
| 1966 | 1 | 5 | |
| 1962 | 20 | 10 | |
| 1958 | 16 | 14 | |
| 1954 | 26 | 3 | |
| 1950 | 1 | 2 | |
| (**) Gallup did not measure Generic Ballot in this year | |||
Table 4: INCUMBENT RE-EELCT
Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following political officeholders deserves to be re-elected… A) The U.S. representative in your Congressional district, B) Most members of the U.S. House of Representatives Deserves Reelection?
| Yes | No | No Opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Your
Member |
|||
| 1998 Oct 9-12 | 52 | 48 | 4 |
| 1996 Oct 27-28 | 56 | 44 | 11 |
| 1994 Nov 2-6 | -- | -- | -- |
| 1992 Oct 23-25 | 59 | 41 | 18 |
| B. Most Members | |||
| 1998 Oct 9-12 | 68 | 32 | 36 |
| 1996 Oct 27-28 | 59 | 41 | 18 |
| 1994 Nov 2-6 | 51 | 49 | 1 |
| 1992 Oct 23-25 | 60 | 40 | 20 |
| 1998 and 1994 figures based on National Adults; 1996 based on Likely Voters; 1992 based on Registered Voters. | |||
