GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A proposed economic stimulus bill rests squarely in the center of the first major political battle of 2002. With the country still enduring a recession, both political parties agree that a bill to jump-start the economy is necessary. Even so, the parties are at odds over how best to do this -- whether to rely mostly on tax cuts as President Bush and the Republicans prefer or to rely mostly on increased government spending as the Democrats generally prefer.
The latest Gallup poll shows the public is largely divided on this matter, with a slight plurality favoring increased government spending to additional tax cuts. Most Americans also believe Congress should proceed with the tax cuts it passed last year rather than delaying or repealing them, as some have suggested. Americans express slightly more confidence in the Republicans' rather than the Democrats' ability to handle the economy, a result similar to last month.
Slight Preference for Increased Government Spending
The poll, conducted January 7-9, 2002, finds 46% of Americans believing that most of the money in an economic stimulus bill should be used for increased government spending, while 41% say most of it should be used for additional tax cuts. In November, when this question was last asked, Americans favored increased spending by a much larger margin, 56% to 32%.
| Economic Stimulus: New Tax Cuts or Increased Government Spending? |
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Preferences are strongly related to partisanship, with Republicans favoring additional tax cuts by a 57% to 31% margin and Democrats favoring increased government spending by 59% to 34%. Independents prefer increased spending by a 48% to 32% margin.
| Economic Stimulus: New Tax Cuts or Increased Government Spending? |
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| Jan. 7-9, '02 |
Despite Americans' slight preference for increased government spending, more Americans say they have greater confidence in the Republicans (43%) than in the Democrats (37%) to handle the nation's economic problems. This is little changed from a December poll that found 44% favoring the Republicans' economic approach and 35% favoring the Democrats'. Whether this is due to a misunderstanding of the parties' economic approaches or a rallying around the party of the president is unclear. Bush's approval ratings in recent months have been among the highest ever recorded by Gallup; his current rating stands at 84%.
Americans' perceptions of who can better handle the economy have shifted over the years. From 1992-1993, Americans favored the Democrats to handle the recovering economy. In 1994, when public confidence in the Clinton administration was flagging, Republicans gained the perceptual advantage on the economy. However, by 1998, with the economy strong and continuing to grow, the public again put more faith in the Democrats' ability to deal with economic matters. That has turned around once more under George W. Bush.
Public Says Government Should Proceed With Scheduled Tax Cuts
In addition to the debate over the details of the economic stimulus bill, Congress is wrestling with another important economic matter -- a projected budget deficit, which would be the first since 1997. A slow economy coupled with efforts to defeat terrorism at home and abroad have put a strain on the federal budget. The problem is further compounded by last year's tax-cut law, a portion of which goes into effect this year and will lead to reduced government revenues. As a result, some have argued for a reconsideration of the tax cuts passed last year, possibly delaying at least some of these or repealing them altogether. However, the American public's first reaction is that the tax cuts should not be tinkered with -- two-thirds believe the government should go ahead with the tax cuts as planned, while only 28% favor a postponement or outright repeal of the cuts.
| Scheduled Tax Cuts: Postpone or Go Ahead? |
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| Jan. 7-9, '02 |
The sentiment to proceed with the tax cuts is shared by most Americans. Even a majority of Democrats (55%) think this year's tax cuts should be implemented as planned rather than postponed or repealed (40%). Even larger majorities of independents (62%) and Republicans (86%) say the tax cuts should take effect as scheduled.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,015 adults, 18 years and older, conducted Jan. 7-9, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Thinking about the economy,
In general, do you prefer the Republicans' or the Democrats' approach to deal with the country's current economic problems?
|
|
|
BOTH |
NEITHER |
No |
|
|
2002 Jan 7-9 |
43% |
37 |
3 |
8 |
9 |
|
2001 Dec 14-16 |
44% |
35 |
4 |
5 |
12 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||
As you may know, Congress is considering a bill to stimulate the economy. In this bill, do you think -- [ROTATED: most of the money should be spent on new tax cuts, (or do you think) most of the money should be spent on increased government spending on such things as benefits for recently unemployed workers and construction projects]?
|
|
Increased government spending |
BOTH/ |
|
|
|
2002 Jan 7-9 |
41% |
46 |
8 |
5 |
|
2001 Nov 2-4 |
32% |
56 |
7 |
5 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
||||
As you may know, Congress passed a tax cut last year. Some of the tax cuts were scheduled to go into effect this year. Just your opinion, should Congress -- [ROTATED: postpone or repeal the tax cuts, (or) go ahead with the tax cuts as planned]?
|
Postpone or repeal |
Go ahead |
No |
|
|
2002 Jan 7-9 |
28% |
67 |
5 |
