As the intensity of the military campaign in Afghanistan diminishes, public policy-makers and private sector leaders are anxiously waiting to see the extent to which America's war on terror will dominate the headlines in 2002, driving public policy decisions and influencing the global economic climate.
The Bush administration has the support to extend the campaign. When Americans are asked in December* whether the U.S. should end its military actions if Osama bin Laden is captured or killed and his network in Afghanistan is destroyed, two-thirds (67%) said the war should be continued against other countries that harbor terrorists. A similar percentage (66%) felt that if the U.S. goes to war in Iraq, it would be as successful as the efforts in Afghanistan have been.
Although the Bush administration has not implicated Iraq as a current target, it is a likely choice. Richard Perle, a former Pentagon aide with ties to the Bush administration, recently told CNN that he was unaware of any current U.S. intentions to militarily remove Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power. However, given Saddam's alleged possession of chemical and biological weapons and his ongoing refusal to cooperate with U.N. arms inspectors, Iraq remains a primary concern of Bush's national security team. A senior American envoy to the Middle East recently told Newsweek, "The question is not if the United States is going to hit Iraq; the question is when."
Nearly three-quarters of Americans (74%) currently favor sending troops into Iraq to oust Saddam from power. Despite a lack of concrete evidence tying the Iraqi president's regime to terrorism worldwide or specifically to the Sept. 11 attacks, support for his overthrow increased 22 percentage points from its most recent pre-Sept. 11 level of 52% (see trend line at top of page). At least a majority of Americans have supported any kind of military action against Iraq since the conclusion of the Persian Gulf War.
In fact, the level of current public support for a strike against Saddam is similar to that seen shortly after the Gulf War ended (70% in June 1993). However, a majority of Americans (52%) believe that the U.S. should wait until hostilities in Afghanistan cease to go after Saddam, suggesting that the public sees the need to finish the war in one theater before undertaking a potentially much larger second campaign.
Key Points
Assuming it happens soon, the polls suggest Americans wouldn't require hard evidence of connection to al Qaeda to support a strike against Iraq. While the symbolic "face" of terrorism has become bin Laden's, the American public remains wary of its old Gulf War adversary.
*Based on telephone interviews with 1,019 adults, aged 18+, conducted Dec. 14-16, 2001. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3%.
