GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ – Americans who watched President Bush's State of the Union speech last Tuesday came away with a very positive endorsement of his proposals for the continuing war against terrorism. Speech watchers interviewed just after the speech said they were more focused on Bush's statements about terrorism than on his statements about the economy -- by a 52% to 29% margin -- and felt that his proposals for dealing with terrorism had a higher probability of being effective in the long term than did his proposals on the economy.
This generally positive response to Bush's outline of his efforts to continue the fight against terrorism is consistent with public opinion measured before the speech. An overwhelming 89% of Americans approved of the current U.S. military action in Afghanistan in our Jan. 25-27 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. The president also received very high marks for his handling of foreign affairs in that poll, and by an overwhelming 79% to 14% margin, Americans said they were more confident in Bush's ability to handle terrorism than they were in the Democrats in Congress. Recent polling has also found that increasingly high numbers of Americans perceive that the United States and its allies are winning the war against terrorism.
Military Action in Iran, Iraq and the Philippines
The president's speech outlined the necessity of fighting terrorism in the Philippines, seizing terrorists in Bosnia, patrolling the coast of Africa to block the shipment of weapons and the establishment of terrorist camps in Somalia, and preventing unfriendly regimes in North Korea, Iran and Iraq from threatening America and its allies with weapons of mass destruction. The vast majority of Americans appear to support continuing efforts to wage the war against terrorism in these types of situations:
Iraq:
- 77% favor taking military action in Iraq (Jan. 11-14, 2002).
- 74% favor taking action to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq (Nov. 26-27, 2001).
Iran:
- 71% favor taking military action in Iran (Jan. 11-14, 2002).
The Philippines:
- 81% favor the current use of U.S. military advisors in the Philippines to help train that country's army to fight Muslim terrorists (Jan. 11-14, 2002).
- 70% favor sending "1,000 American troops to the Philippines to join that country's army in combat situations against Muslim terrorists" (Jan. 11-14, 2002).
In fact, although Bush's implication was that all of the battles he proposed beyond Afghanistan were necessary because of the threats the countries involved posed to the United States, our polling shows that almost half of Americans would be willing to use the U.S. military to fight terrorist organizations even if they were not direct threats in and of themselves.
What should be the main use of U.S. military force in the war on terrorism? Should the U.S. military be used to fight -- [ROTATED: strictly against terrorist organizations in other countries that represent a threat to the U.S., (or should the U.S. military be used to fight) any terrorist organizations in other countries, even if they do not threaten the U.S.]?
|
Strictly against threats to U.S. |
Against any organizations |
BOTH/NEITHER (vol.) |
No |
|||
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
45% |
49 |
2 |
4 |
||
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
||||||
Public Still Generally Supports Idea of Using Non-Military Means to Fight Terrorism
At the same time, despite these sentiments supporting military action, there are a couple of seemingly discordant themes that appear in response to other recent poll questions.
For one thing, the current state of confidence in the Bush administration's handling of the war on terrorism and support for expanding the war beyond Afghanistan doesn't necessarily mean that the public is positive that all long-term goals relating to terrorism will be met. Indeed, in the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted just before the State of the Union speech, only 19% of Americans said they were extremely or very confident that "every global terrorist organization will be defeated." This may not be surprising given the warnings issued by the president and his administration about the long-term nature of the war against terrorism. ("Our war on terror is well begun, but it is only begun. This campaign may not be finished on our watch -- yet it must be and it will be waged on our watch.")
A somewhat higher 41% of Americans are extremely or very confident that "Osama bin Laden will be captured or killed" -- a goal that about half of Americans feel is important if the war is to be declared a success.
Additionally, when given the following forced choice:
Once the U.S. has accomplished its goals in Afghanistan, which comes closer to your view of how the government should mainly wage the war on terrorism -- [ROTATED: the war on terrorism should rely mainly on direct military action in other countries as the U.S. has been doing, (or) the war on terrorism should rely mainly on economic and diplomatic efforts as well as secret intelligence activities]?
Americans come down in favor of the "economic and diplomatic efforts" alternative rather than the "direct military action" alternative, by a 54% to 39% margin.
In other words, necessary as military action may seem in specific circumstances such as Afghanistan and the other countries referred to above, the response to this question suggests that Americans may retain an underlying preference for a more peaceful means for fighting terrorism if it appears feasible in the future.
Survey Methods
These results are based on several different polls conducted by The Gallup Poll over the past weeks. Generally speaking, all national polls are based on telephone interviews with randomly selected national samples of approximately 1,000 adults, 18 years and older. For results based on samples of this size, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Results for speech watchers interviewed after the State of the Union address are based on telephone interviews with 381 speech watchers, aged 18+, conducted Jan. 29, 2002. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Survey respondents were first interviewed by Gallup between Jan. 25-28, 2002, at which time they indicated they planned to watch the president's 2002 State of the Union address and were willing to be re-interviewed by Gallup after the speech.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [ROTATED]? How about -- ?
A. The economy
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
64 |
30 |
6 |
|
2001 Nov 2-4 ^ |
71 |
24 |
5 |
|
2001 Oct 5-6 |
72 |
23 |
5 |
|
2001 Jul 10-11 |
54 |
36 |
10 |
|
2001 May 18-20 |
51 |
41 |
8 |
|
2001 Apr 20-22 ^ |
55 |
38 |
7 |
|
2001 Mar 9-11 |
55 |
32 |
13 |
|
2001 Feb 1-4 |
53 |
27 |
20 |
|
^ Asked of half sample. |
|||
B. Foreign affairs
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
83 |
14 |
3 |
|
2001 Oct 5-6 |
81 |
14 |
5 |
|
2001 Jul 10-11 |
54 |
33 |
13 |
|
2001 May 18-20 |
55 |
35 |
10 |
|
2001 Apr 20-22 ^ |
56 |
31 |
13 |
|
2001 Mar 9-11 |
52 |
27 |
21 |
|
2001 Feb 1-4 |
46 |
21 |
33 |
|
^ Asked of half sample. |
|||
Who do you have more confidence in when it comes to handling the following issues -- [ROTATED: President Bush (or) the Democrats in Congress]? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
L. Terrorism
|
Bush |
Democrats |
BOTH (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
79% |
14 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||
Thinking for a moment about another topic,
Do you approve or disapprove of the current U.S. military action in Afghanistan?
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
89 |
9 |
2 |
|
2001 Dec 6-9 |
88 |
9 |
3 |
|
2001 Nov 26-27 |
92 |
6 |
2 |
|
2001 Nov 2-4 |
86 |
11 |
3 |
|
2001 Oct 19-21 |
88 |
10 |
2 |
How confident are you that each of the following will happen -- extremely confident, very confident, moderately confident, not very confident, or not confident at all? How about that -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
A. Every global terrorist organization will be defeated
|
|
|
|
|
Not confident |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
7 |
12 |
37 |
25 |
17 |
2 |
|
2001 Nov 26-27 |
5 |
16 |
32 |
29 |
17 |
1 |
|
2001 Sep 21-22 |
6 |
15 |
38 |
28 |
12 |
1 |
B. The American way of life will be preserved
|
|
|
|
|
Not confident |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
26 |
37 |
29 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
|
2001 Nov 26-27 |
18 |
45 |
29 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
|
2001 Sep 21-22 |
23 |
42 |
28 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
C. The U.S. economy will be prosperous in the long-term
|
|
|
|
|
Not confident |
|
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
22 |
32 |
36 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
2001 Nov 26-27 |
12 |
44 |
34 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
2001 Sep 21-22 |
18 |
42 |
31 |
7 |
1 |
1 |
|
D. Osama bin Laden will be captured or killed
|
|
|
|
|
Not confident |
|
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
20 |
21 |
32 |
16 |
9 |
2 |
|
If the U.S. government decides to take military action in the following countries, would you favor or oppose it? How about in -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
A. Iraq
|
Favor |
Oppose |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
77% |
17 |
6 |
B. Iran
|
Favor |
Oppose |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
71% |
23 |
6 |
C. Somalia
|
Favor |
Oppose |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
62% |
26 |
12 |
As you may know, the U.S. has sent a small number of military advisors to the Philippines to help train that country's army to fight Muslim terrorists. Do you approve or disapprove of this decision?
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
81% |
15 |
4 |
If the U.S. sent 1,000 American troops to the Philippines to join that country's army in combat situations against Muslim terrorists, would you favor or oppose this?
|
Favor |
Oppose |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
70% |
26 |
4 |
