GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Whether delivering the State of the Union Address or giving a speech to a local chamber of commerce, President George W. Bush has been on the stump since January, using a variety of public venues to lay out his foreign and domestic agenda for 2002. In a two-part series, Gallup reviews where the public stands on each of the president's major policy proposals. Part One of the series below deals with Bush's domestic policy proposals and Part Two (see "related items" below) will address his foreign policy proposals.
Overall, Americans are supportive of Bush's policy goals -- 73% believe they will move the country in the right direction and only 19% think they will move the United States in the wrong direction, according to a Jan. 25-27 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. In general, strong majorities of the public favor Bush's specific proposals, more so on his foreign policy objectives than his domestic policy objectives.
Bush's greatest public support in the domestic arena is for many of his education proposals and for extending unemployment benefits. However, several of the proposals Bush set forth may receive opposition from the public, and by extension, Congress -- including an economic stimulus package, parts of his energy plan, and school vouchers.
Each of the following proposals was outlined in his State of the Union address, and since that time, he has continued to publicly lobby for each proposal's passage.
Homeland Security
1. Double the funding for a sustained strategy of homeland security; and increase funding to help states and communities train and equip police and firefighters.
A Jan. 7-9 Gallup poll finds that 51% of Americans are satisfied while 47% are dissatisfied with the nation's security regarding protection from terrorism. The public generally supports increased spending on homeland security. A November 2001 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll found that 77% said the government should spend whatever is necessary to enhance safety and security, even if it meant a return to deficit spending or a roll-back of the tax cut. More recently, a Jan. 31-Feb. 3 Los Angeles Times poll shows majority support (51%) for Bush's proposed $38 billion spending on homeland security, even if it resulted in cuts to other domestic programs. Only 10% oppose this proposal outright and 33% favor it, but not if cuts are made to other programs.
2. Improve intelligence, expand patrols, strengthen air travel security; use technology to track arrivals and departures of visitors to the United States.
Americans support an increased federal role in airport security. Seventy-one percent think that the federal government's taking over of airport security will make things better in that area. Only 5% say it will make the situation worse, and 22% believe it will have no effect.
3. Develop vaccines to fight anthrax and other deadly diseases.
The most recent Gallup update on this issue showed 62% of Americans were confident in the government to prevent additional people from being exposed to anthrax. Thirty-eight percent were not confident [Nov. 26-27].
The Budget and Economy
4. Run a deficit that will be small and short term so long as Congress restrains spending.
The public is divided as to the desirability of running a deficit under current conditions. A recent Gallup poll shows that 51% think the government should run a deficit if necessary when the country is in a recession and at war, and 46% say the government should still balance the budget [Jan. 11-14]. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed that 49% think the current deficit is a "very" or "fairly serious problem," while 50% do not see it as a problem.
A Jan. 25-27 Gallup poll shows that Americans express more confidence in President Bush (49%) than in the Democrats in Congress (38%) to handle the federal budget deficit.
5. Make the tax cuts passed last year permanent.
Americans are more positive than negative in their assessment of the tax cuts passed last year. Forty-one percent of Americans say those tax cuts are a good thing for the country, 19% say they are bad, while 37% say they will not make much difference for the country [Jan. 11-14].
The public would like to proceed with the tax cuts as planned, but would be willing to forego them in order to balance the budget.
- When asked about the fate of the tax cuts that passed last year but are scheduled to go into effect this year, 67% of Americans say the cuts should go ahead as planned, while 28% say they should be either postponed or repealed [Jan. 7-9].
- Sixty-two percent would be willing to postpone or cancel the tax cuts in order to balance the budget, while 33% say the tax cuts should go forward even if it leads to a budget deficit [Jan. 11-14].
6. Pass an economic stimulus package.
A Jan. 11-14 Gallup poll finds that 62% of Americans think it is at least "very important" for the president and Congress to take up an economic stimulus package. This issue, however, received the second to lowest level of importance among the 13 issues tested in the poll (energy policies received the lowest importance rating). If Congress does address the issue, 47% think Republicans would do a better job of dealing with an economic stimulus package, while 38% think Democrats would [Jan. 11-14].
Regarding the substance of the bill, a plurality of Americans (46%) says that most of the money should go toward increased government spending on unemployment benefits or construction projects, while 41% say most of the money should be used for additional tax cuts [Jan. 7-9]. Bush himself favors the latter.
7. Extend unemployment benefits and direct assistance for health care coverage.
Although this question has not been asked in a general sense, the public did overwhelmingly back (94% favored) Congress passing a law to extend unemployment and health care benefits for workers affected by the Sept. 11 attacks [Oct. 5-6, 2001].8. Make corporate America more accountable to employees and shareholders.
Public opinion of corporate America has suffered in the wake of the Enron controversy. Sixty-three percent of Americans say the most important issue in the Enron case is the fact that Enron employees lost their jobs and their retirement savings while the executives made millions of dollars [Feb. 8-10]. Nearly half of Americans, 49%, say corporations can only be trusted just "a little" or "not at all" to look out for the interest of their employees. However, Americans are more likely to trust their own employers. Fifty percent of employed Americans believe they can trust their company "a lot" to keep its promises to them. Only 8% do not believe they can trust their company to keep its promises to them at all.
Americans are more likely to believe that corporations look out for the interests of their stockholders, as just 34% think they do so only a little or not at all, while 64% say they can be trusted "a great deal" or "a fair amount" [Jan. 25-27].
Energy
9. Encourage energy conservation, promote technology, and build infrastructure to increase domestic energy production.
It is unclear if Americans are willing to accept new energy legislation, even after the energy crisis of 2001. Energy did rank lowest on a list of 13 issue priorities in a January poll; however, many Americans are dissatisfied with the nation's energy policies. While the public favors energy conservation in general, they would support specific production-based proposals as well. However, in our most recent update on this question, more Americans oppose than support Bush's proposal to explore oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska.
- Just 45% of Americans are satisfied with the nation's energy policies, including only 6% who are very satisfied. Forty-two percent are dissatisfied [Jan. 7-9].
- When asked to choose between increased energy production or increased energy conservation, the public comes down on the side of conservation by a 47% to 35% margin [May 7-9, 2001]. A March 2001 poll shows an even bigger margin in favor of conservation (56% to 33%.)
- Roughly half of Americans (49%) thought the energy plan Bush proposed last year would do too little to conserve energy, while 38% thought it would do the right amount to conserve energy [May 18-20, 2001].
- Overwhelming majorities favor proposals to invest in new sources of energy such as solar, wind, and fuel cells (91%) and to invest in new power generating plants (81%) [Nov. 8-10, 2001].
- However, less than a majority of Americans approve of other production-based solutions favored by Bush, such as increasing the use of nuclear power (42%) or opening up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil exploration (44%) [Nov. 8-10, 2001].
Education
10. Pass historic education reform.
Education is another issue in which Americans would welcome reform. A majority (54%) says it is dissatisfied with the quality of public education in this country, while 45% are satisfied [Jan. 7-9]. Education also typically ranks as one of the top domestic issues when Americans are asked which issues are most important for Congress and the president to handle. A Jan. 11-14 poll finds only terrorism placing above education from a list of 13 legislative priorities for the president and Congress.
Bush signed an education reform law at the beginning of this year that increases standardized testing of students as a way to measure student performance and ties federal funding to schools' test scores. One major issue that was not part of the law is school vouchers, which Bush favors. Several polls show the public is divided on the issue. For example, a Harris Poll conducted in February-March 2001 shows 44% in favor and 50% opposed to "school vouchers where parents can use part of the cost of public education to pay any part of the cost of sending their children to private school." However, support does vary based on how the question is asked. A January 2001 Gallup poll found as many as 62% in favor of giving parents the option of using government-funded school vouchers to pay for tuition at the public, private, or religious school of their choice. In the same poll, just 48% favored and 47% opposed "giving parents government-funded school vouchers to pay for tuition at a private school."
11. Improved Head Start and early child development programs.
Recent polls on these proposals show very strong public support for early child development programs. An August 2001 Mason-Dixon poll showed that 52% of Americans thought Congress should give "top priority" to funding Head Start and other school readiness programs. By way of reference, the most recent Gallup data, from the early 1990s, showed that eight in 10 Americans supported expansion of Head Start programs.
12. Upgrade teacher colleges and teacher quality; and launch a major recruiting drive for teachers.
An October 2000 Gallup poll revealed that 95% of Americans favor a law that would require teachers to pass a competency test in teaching skills and the subject area they would teach as a means to improving teacher quality.
The 2001 Phi Delta Kappa/Gallup survey on education showed strong support for the following proposals to recruit more teachers -- raising teacher salaries (89%); having the federal government provide loans to college students that would be forgiven if the student entered the teaching profession (75%); and recruiting qualified teachers from other countries (61%).
Social Security and Retirement
13. Make Social Security financially stable and allow personal retirement accounts for younger workers.
The public would welcome efforts to address the Social Security system. A majority of Americans (55%) say they are dissatisfied with the state of the Social Security (and Medicare) systems. Forty-one percent are satisfied [Jan. 7-9]. Consistent with earlier polls, 63% of Americans favor allowing people to invest a portion of their Social Security payroll taxes in private stocks and bonds, while just 33% are opposed [Jan. 25-27], a proposal Bush has long championed.
Americans strongly believe that the Social Security surplus should be set aside for future benefits, rather than be used to fund current government programs. At least seven in 10 Americans say they would rather see the Social Security surplus used to ensure benefits in the future rather than spent for any of the following purposes: on domestic programs such as education and health care (74% vs. 22%); on national defense and homeland security (77% vs. 19%); or on tax cuts (88% vs. 9%) [Feb. 8-10].
Americans are slightly more likely to trust Bush (45%) than the Democrats in Congress (40%) to handle Social Security [Jan. 25-27].
14. Enact new safeguards for 401(k) and pension plans.
According to an August 2001 Gallup poll, roughly six in 10 Americans have money invested in the stock market, either in an individual stock, mutual fund, or a self-directed 401(k) or IRA. Most non-retired Americans expect to rely a great deal on 401(k) and pension plans to fund their retirement. Fifty-eight percent of non-retired Americans expect a 401(k) or other savings account to be a "major source" of their retirement income, while 34% say this about a pension plan [Apr 6-8, 2001]. These were the most likely financial vehicles to be cited as major sources of retirement funds, with Social Security coming in third at 28%.
The April 2001 poll shows that 24% of Americans are very worried and 29% are moderately worried that they will not have enough money for retirement. This was the second greatest economic worry among Americans from a list of seven, following "not having enough money to pay for medical costs in case of a serious illness or accident."
15. Give seniors a Medicare system that includes coverage for prescription drugs.
Most Americans support the idea of expanding Medicare to include coverage of prescription drugs, but on this issue, they are far more likely to trust the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.
- Seventy-three percent of Americans think it is important for the president and Congress to provide prescription drugs for older Americans.
- By a margin of 56% to 32%, Americans are much more likely to think that the Democratic Party would do a better job of dealing with the issue than the Republican Party [Jan. 11-14].
- An April 2000 Gallup poll showed that a majority (57%) favored the expansion of Medicare coverage to provide prescription drugs as an additional entitlement for senior citizens in the program, while just 26% favored a business-incentive program that Bush has proposed in the past. Only 12% thought that no changes should be made to the Medicare system.
The Environment
18. Work toward a cleaner environment.
A majority of Americans (56%) are satisfied with the current quality of the environment, but only 9% are very satisfied. Forty-one percent are dissatisfied [Jan. 7-9]. Americans have more confidence in the Democrats in Congress (48%) than in President Bush (40%) to handle environmental issues [Jan. 25-27].
Charity Work and Volunteerism
19. Encourage the good work of charities and faith-based groups.
Bush has advocated giving government funds to religious organizations that provide social services in the U.S. The most recent data, from a July 2001 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, shows 61% of registered voters favored and 33% opposed allowing government funds to be used by faith-based organizations to deliver services to the needy. When Gallup asked a similar question in February 2001, the public was divided, with 48% approving and 44% disapproving of Bush's plan.
20. Commit at least two years, or 4,000 hours, over the rest of your lifetime to community service.
Eighty percent of those who watched Bush's State of the Union speech said that they would be both willing and able to make this commitment, while 19% said they would not be either willing or able to do so [Jan. 29].
Other Bush Proposals
Bush made several proposals for which recent public opinion data do not exist. These include reforming welfare by requiring more who receive it to be working; encouraging non-married welfare recipients to marry; approving an historic increase in spending for veterans' health; passing a productive farm policy; and broadening home ownership.
