Republicans Trail in Congressional Race Despite Advantage on Issues

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows international matters top a list of issues that could influence the election this fall. The data also show a clear split in the public's view over which party is better able to handle specific issues, with Republicans faring better on international issues and Democrats on domestic issues. But despite the importance accorded to international issues and the GOP's perceptual advantage on these, results of the latest Gallup "generic" congressional ballot show Democrats continue to lead Republicans by a 50% to 46% margin among likely voters.

If history is any guide, Democrats should gain a few seats in the House of Representatives in this year's midterm elections, given that a Republican president occupies the White House (aside from 1934 and 1998, the president's party has lost seats in every midterm election in the last 100 years). Democrats have held a slight lead over Republicans in four Gallup Poll measurements of the generic congressional ballot since July. However, the issue context of the election is changing in a way that could benefit the Republicans. When asked to choose whether the economy or the possibility of war with Iraq will be more important to their vote, 49% of Americans say Iraq and 42% say the economy. This represents a significant shift from just a few weeks ago, when a Sept. 2-4 poll showed a 57% to 34% advantage in favor of the economy.

Which Is More Important to Your Vote for Congress:
Economic Conditions or the Possibility of War With Iraq?

Importance of Issues for the Election

In addition to the question about the economy and Iraq, Gallup asked Americans to assess how important 15 issues will be to their vote for Congress this fall. Terrorism, the situation in the Middle East and the possibility of war with Iraq are assigned the most importance of the issues, with about eight in 10 saying these issues will be "extremely" or "very important" to their vote. Economic conditions also rank among the most important issues, as 81% say that issue will be extremely or very important, with 37% who say extremely important. Most other domestic issues are rated less important, with abortion and gun policy coming in last among the issues tested in the survey. The general category of foreign affairs only scores a 64% importance rating despite the stated importance of specific foreign policy issues such as Iraq and terrorism.

IMPORTANCE OF ISSUES TO CONGRESSIONAL VOTE

2002 Sep 20-22 (sorted by "extremely important")	Extremely important	Extremely/Very important
	%	%
Terrorism	47	83
The situation in the Middle East	44	80
The possibility of war with Iraq	42	78
Economic conditions	37	81
Education	36	75
Healthcare	35	74
Prescription drugs for older Americans	35	71
Social Security	34	71
Corporate corruption	33	69
Unemployment	28	65
The environment	28	61
Foreign affairs	27	64
Taxes	27	60
Gun policy	21	49
Abortion	18	46

Which Party Is Better on Each Issue?

The data show a rather stark contrast in party ratings when Americans are asked to indicate which party would better handle each of the issues. On the four international issues, Republicans hold a decided advantage over the Democrats, including a 29-percentage point lead on terrorism (56% to 27%) and a 19-point lead on the possibility of war with Iraq (52% to 33%). On the 11 domestic issues, Democrats hold the edge, with their biggest advantages on healthcare (61% to 26%), the environment (60% to 28%) and prescription drugs for older Americans (58% to 28%). On the key domestic issue -- the economy -- Democrats have a five-point advantage over the Republicans, 46% to 41%.

PARTY IN CONGRESS THAT WOULD DO A BETTER JOB HANDLING EACH ISSUE

2002 Sep 20-22 (sorted by "advantage")		Republican	Democrat	Percentage Point Advantage
		%	%	%
Terrorism		56	27	+29
The possibility of war with Iraq		52	33	+19
The situation in the Middle East		51	33	+18
Foreign affairs		49	33	+16
Gun policy		41	42	-1
Economic conditions		41	46	-5
Corporate corruption		38	46	-8
Taxes		38	50	-12
Abortion		33	48	-15
Unemployment		35	51	-16
Education		31	53	-22
Social Security		31	55	-24
Prescription drugs for older Americans		28	58	-30
The environment		28	60	-32
Healthcare		26	61	-35

+	Advantage indicates Republican lead
-	Advantage indicates Democratic lead

Relative Strengths of the Two Parties

The following chart dramatizes the international/domestic divide in the public's perceptions of which party can better handle the issues. Issues that fall in the top half of the graph are among the most important issues, with those in the upper-left quadrant strong points for the Democrats and those in the upper right strengths for the Republicans. Issues in the lower half of the graph are less important to the electorate, and parties' relative strengths on these may not have as much of an impact on the election.

Party Advantage vs. Stated Importance of Issues

Why Aren't Republicans Doing Better?

The puzzle the data present is why Republicans are not doing better in the generic ballot measure despite holding an advantage on most of the top issues. One possible reason is that the shift in the relative importance of the economy and Iraq is recent, and thus has yet to affect voters' thinking about their vote on Nov. 5. If the situation persists, Republicans may make up ground in the future.

It may also be possible that despite the stated importance of foreign affairs to their November vote, voters may in reality not associate Congress with international matters to a large degree since the president and his advisers have the primary responsibility for conducting foreign affairs. So even if congressional Republicans are seen as better on terrorism and Iraq, that advantage may not be quite as crucial as having an advantage on an issue with which Congress is more directly involved, such as Social Security and education policy. Moreover, many Democrats support the president's positions on terrorism and Iraq, lessening the chance for Republicans to capitalize on the issue.

A third way of looking at the data is to revert to the patterns of history. As mentioned before, the overwhelming pattern is for the party occupying the White House to lose congressional seats in a midterm election. This has been the case even when presidents were relatively popular, including Franklin Roosevelt in 1940 (70% approval rating), Dwight Eisenhower in 1954 (61%), John Kennedy in 1962 (61%), and Ronald Reagan in 1986 (63%). George W. Bush's current approval rating is 66%. (But Bill Clinton had a 66% approval rating in 1998 when Democrats bucked the trend and gained seats in that midterm election.)

History also shows that perceptions of the national economy -- especially a struggling economy as exists now -- usually play a crucial role in determining election outcomes. So even if the public explicitly gives an edge to international issues, the economy is not an unimportant consideration, and Democrats currently have a slight edge on this key issue.

A final reason Republicans are not doing better in terms of voters' projected congressional vote could be that other considerations end up being more important than issues for many voters. For years, political scientists have struggled to find evidence of issue voting. A voter's party affiliation plays the greatest role in influencing his or her vote, and election-specific conditions such as whether an incumbent member of Congress is seeking re-election (more than 90% of incumbents routinely win and 74% of likely voters in the current poll say their member of Congress deserves re-election) or the strength of each party's candidates (in terms of how well-known and how well-funded they are) usually have more impact on the vote in congressional elections than debates over national issues. National issues are not irrelevant, though their impact generally comes from more general notions of what shape the country is in, how the economy is performing, and how the president is handling his job rather than from debates over specific issues. Such perceptions helped explain why Democrats performed so well in 1974 (shortly after the Watergate scandal) and 1982 (during an economic recession) and Republicans in 1994 (concerns over Clinton's national healthcare plan and crime). But debates over issues such as Iraq and the economy help inform those general notions.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,010 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 20-22, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Please tell me whether you think each of the following political office-holders deserves to be reelected, or not. How about -- [ITEM A READ FIRST, THEN ITEMS B-C ROTATED]?

President Bush

	Yes, deserves	No, does not	No opinion
	%	%	%
*Likely Voters*
(LV) 2002 Sep 20-22	60	36	4

*Registered Voters*
(RV) 2002 Sep 20-22	60	35	5

(RV) 2002 Apr 29-May 1	69	25	6
(RV) 2001 Aug 24-26	46	44	10

*National Adults*
(NA) 2002 Sep 20-22	62	33	5

(NA) 2002 Apr 29-May 1	70	25	5
(NA) 2001 Aug 24-26	46	44	10

The U.S. Representative in your Congressional District

	Yes, deserves	No, does not	No opinion
	%	%	%
*Likely Voters*
(LV) 2002 Sep 20-22	74	18	8

*Registered Voters*
(RV) 2002 Sep 20-22	67	19	14

(RV) 2002 Apr 29-May 1	67	19	14
(RV) 2001 Aug 24-26	67	20	13

*National Adults*
(NA) 2002 Sep 20-22	64	19	17
(NA) 2002 Apr 29-May 1	66	18	16
(NA) 2001 Aug 24-26	64	20	16

Most members of the U.S. House of Representatives

	Yes, deserves	No, does not	No opinion
	%	%	%
*Likely Voters*
(LV) 2002 Sep 20-22	57	31	12

*Registered Voters*
(RV) 2002 Sep 20-22	57	29	14

(RV) 2002 Apr 29-May 1	57	24	19
(RV) 2001 Aug 24-26	52	30	18

*National Adults*
(NA) 2002 Sep 20-22	57	28	15

(NA) 2002 Apr 29-May 1	58	22	20
(NA) 2001 Aug 24-26	51	31	18

Thinking ahead to the elections for Congress this November, if you had to choose, which of the following issues will be more important to your vote -- [ROTATED: economic conditions, (or) the possibility of war with Iraq]?

	Economic conditions	Possibility of war with Iraq	Both (vol.)	Neither (vol.)	Other (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Sep 20-22	42	49	7	1	*	1

2002 Sep 2-4	57	34	7	*	0	2
2002 Aug 19-21	55	36	7	*	*	2

How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for Congress this November -- will it be -- extremely important, very important, moderately important, or not that important? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

ITEMS A-F: BASED ON --492-- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

ITEMS G-H: BASED ON --1,010-- NATIONAL ADULTS

ITEMS I-O: BASED ON --518-- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

A. Abortion

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion

2002 Sep 20-22	18%	28	24	28	2

B. Education

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion

2002 Sep 20-22	36%	39	22	3	*

C. Foreign affairs

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion

2002 Sep 20-22	27%	37	29	6	1

D. Healthcare

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion

2002 Sep 20-22	35%	39	22	4	*

E. Taxes

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion

2002 Sep 20-22	27%	33	32	7	1

F. Terrorism

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion

2002 Sep 20-22	47%	36	13	3	1

G. The possibility of war with Iraq

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Sep 20-22	42	36	15	6	1

2002 Aug 19-21	32	41	18	7	2

H. Economic conditions

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Sep 20-22	37	44	17	2	*

2002 Aug 19-21	34	44	17	3	2

I. Corporate corruption

		Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
2002 Sep 20-22		33	36	23	8	*

2002 Aug 19-21 ^		35	35	19	9	2

^	Asked of a full sample.

J. The environment

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion

2002 Sep 20-22	28%	33	30	9	*

K. Gun policy

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion

2002 Sep 20-22	21%	28	32	18	1

L. The situation in the Middle East

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion

2002 Sep 20-22	44%	36	16	4	*

M. Social Security

		Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
2002 Sep 20-22		34	37	24	5	*

2002 Aug 19-21 ^		34	36	21	7	2

^	Asked of a full sample

N. Unemployment

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion

2002 Sep 20-22	28%	37	29	5	1

O. Prescription drugs for older Americans

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion

2002 Sep 20-22	35%	36	21	8	*

Do you think the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress would do a better job of dealing with each of the following issues and problems? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?