As President George W. Bush continues to push for action against Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, a review of Gallup Poll data from the months leading up to the Persian Gulf War provides some interesting comparisons between public support for former President George H.W. Bush's handling of the Iraq situation in 1990 and 1991, and the current climate of public opinion toward the Iraq situation.
George H.W. Bush's Handling of Iraq in 1991
Gallup tracked whether the public approved of George H.W. Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq from August 1990 until a week before the start of the Gulf War in January 1991.Only a slight majority of Americans (52%) expressed approval in an Aug. 3-4 poll in 1990*, conducted two days after Iraq's occupation of Kuwait. Roughly one in six adults (16%) disapproved of Bush's handling of the situation, and about one- third (32%) had no opinion. But just five days later, that approval skyrocketed to 80% -- its high point during these months -- in an Aug. 9-12 poll** taken days after Bush ordered troops to Saudi Arabia as part of Operation Desert Shield. Only 12% of respondents disapproved of Bush's handling of the situation at that time.
The public's rating of how Bush handled the situation started to show some decay (to the mid-70% range) in late August and September of 1990. In early October, about two-thirds of Americans expressed approval, but only about six in 10 approved at the end of October and beginning of November. By the end of November, the figure had fallen below 60%. Then, upon the approach of the Jan. 16, 1991, deadline for Saddam to pull out of Kuwait, public support for Bush's handling of the Iraq situation began to rise again***.
George W. Bush's Handling of Iraq Today
The initial reading**** on George W. Bush's handling the situation in Iraq shows 64% of Americans approve and 34% disapprove. The poll was taken shortly after Bush's speech to the United Nations outlining the case for going to Iraq, but before Congress passed a resolution authorizing the president to use force in Iraq. The current results are very similar to those of Bush's father in the days leading up to the start of the Gulf War.
Not surprisingly, support for Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq is highly politicized. Roughly nine in 10 Republicans approve of Bush's stance on the Iraq situation, compared to only about four in 10 Democrats. A majority of Democrats (55%) disapprove of Bush's handling of the current situation.
Key Points
Gallup polling finds that a strong majority of Americans approve of the way the younger Bush is handling the situation in Iraq. By comparison, when Kuwait invaded Iraq in August 1990, only a slight majority of Americans approved of former President Bush's handling of that situation. As soon as the elder Bush sent troops to the Persian Gulf region, the public rallied support around the president and his handling of the situation. Public approval of the younger Bush's handling of the situation with Iraq should surge if -- or when -- the United States takes military action to topple Saddam's regime.
*Results are based on telephone interviews with 810 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 3-4, 1990. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4%.
**Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,227 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 9-12, 1990. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3%.
***Results are based on telephone interviews with 751 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 10-11, 1991. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4%.
****Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,012 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 20-22, 2002. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3%.
