Party identification is the most powerful of all the ways to predict voter intent. It stands to reason that those who identify themselves as Republicans are much more likely to vote for Republican candidates, and Democrats in turn are more likely to vote for Democratic candidates. Of course, Americans will come to develop loyalty toward, and consistently vote for, a political party if they can relate to what the party stands for. So valuable insight on both the direction and strength of party identification can be gained by asking Americans which party they believe has their values at heart and their needs in mind.
When a recent Gallup Poll* asked likely voters which party cares more about the needs of people like them, slightly less than half (46%) said the Democratic Party does, while 38% said the Republican Party does. Six percent said both parties care equally, and another 6% believe neither does.
When likely voters are asked which party better shares their values, they are more equally split. Forty-six percent said the Republican Party better shares their values, while 45% said the Democratic Party does. Three percent said both, and another 3% said neither.
People Like Me?
Some experts boil politics down to a competition among groups for scarce political and economic resources. The data clearly show that certain demographic groups are aligned with the Republican Party in this competition and others are aligned with the Democratic Party.
An obvious race gap exists. Among white likely voters, opinion about which party cares more about their needs is divided equally, with 42% mentioning each party. But among nonwhite likely voters, 65% say the Democratic Party, while 20% choose the Republican Party. More specifically, there is an intense battle currently being waged by both parties to attract membership from America's burgeoning Hispanic population. Hispanics, though, are nearly twice as likely to choose the Democratic Party over the Republican Party when asked which party cares more about their needs, 55% vs. 28%**.
Women likely voters are much more inclined to say the Democratic Party cares more about their needs than the Republican Party does, by a 51% to 34% margin. Among male likely voters, opinion is evenly divided, with 42% saying the Republican Party cares more about their needs and 41% saying this of the Democratic Party.
Income is another significant predictor of Americans' assessment of which party most cares about their needs. Generally, as respondents' household incomes decrease, belief that the Democratic Party cares about their needs increases. Among likely voters who make $50,000 or more each year, the responses are split roughly evenly, with 45% saying the Republican Party cares more and 44% saying the Democratic Party. For those in the $30,000 to $49,999 range, 44% choose the Democratic Party and 37% choose the Republican Party. Voters with household incomes below $29,999 are significantly more apt to say the Democratic Party cares more about their needs, by a 58% to 26% margin.
Value Variables
Responses to the question, "Do you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party better shares your values?" fall roughly evenly between the parties overall. Of course, responses vary significantly by specific groups whose predominant values are different.
Obviously, voters with conservative ideology are more likely to say the Republican Party shares their values (69% to 24%), while liberal voters overwhelmingly choose the Democratic Party, 85% to 8%. Roughly half (52%) of likely voters with a moderate ideology believe the Democratic Party better shares their values, while slightly more than a third (35%) choose the Republican Party.
Religious habits also play a part. Fifty-four percent of likely voters who attend church at least once a week said the Republican Party better shares their values, compared to 38% who said the Democratic Party does. About half of voters who attend church less often (49%) said the Democratic Party better shares their values, while roughly two in five (42%) said this about the Republican Party.
There has been increased discussion and analysis of the "marriage gap" in American politics. This gap is evident in results to the values question. Among married likely voters, 53% said the Republican Party better shares their values, while 39% said the Democratic Party does. The pattern is reversed among unmarried likely voters, with 54% choosing the Democratic Party and 35% choosing the Republican Party.
*Results are based on telephone interviews with 806 likely voters, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 3-6, 2002. For results based on the sample of, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4%.
**Results are based on telephone interviews with 275 Hispanics, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 3-8, 2002. For results based on the total sample of Hispanics, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7%.
