It is often argued that foreign policy issues are particularly tricky when it comes to public opinion. Average citizens, even in a democracy such as the United States, simply don't, and can't, know all of the facts of the matter. Many Americans can't find Iraq on a map, and more importantly, few Americans have any personal way of knowing exactly what is going on inside Iraq, or what the danger is if indeed Iraq is hiding weapons of mass destruction.
But after a decade of watching and hearing about Iraq and Saddam Hussein, and after (at least for many older Americans) several decades of watching the United States get involved in foreign entanglements, the public as a whole has a pretty good sense of how it feels the nation should deal with these types of situations.
We know from the outset that Americans, on average, have bought into the basic premise that Iraq and Saddam are potentially dangerous antagonists to the United States. The majority of Americans perceive that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction within its control, and that these weapons can, and will, be used against the United States. Many even believe that Iraq was behind the Sept. 11 terror attacks.
But, as noted, Americans have no way of personally figuring out where all of this leads, or the ins and outs of the possible diplomatic and military ways to deal with the current Iraqi situation. So it may be no surprise to find that Americans -- perhaps precisely because they can't personally verify what is going on -- have consistently indicated a desire for the United States to get confirmation and support from the United Nations before proceeding into war. This is probably the most important finding from all of our recent polling on Iraq. Americans have a basic level of trust in the government to do what is right, but there is a persistent and reliable sentiment that the United Nations should get involved before any military action is initiated.
Most Important Problem
The situation in Iraq has not achieved the "most important problem" status that we might expect given its dominance in the news. The economy still reigns as the issue Americans mention most often as the most important problem facing the nation, significantly ahead of either the situation in Iraq or the war on terrorism. Separately, a survey released last week by the Program on International Policy Attitudes and the University of Maryland showed that the threat posed by Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda was considered a more important foreign policy challenge than Iraq (or the Middle East).
War on Terrorism
News reports now say that al Qaeda is taking credit for the tragic Kenya bombings, and that the terrorist organization promises more attacks to come. These continuing threats come as little surprise to most Americans, only 33% of whom now say that the United States is winning the war on terrorism. About one in five say that the terrorists are winning. The rest say that the war on terrorism is at a stalemate.
Bush Approval
President Bush has a 64% job approval rating in our weekend poll -- still well above average -- and little changed over the last 4 months. Levels of satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States -- now at 46% satisfied and 51% dissatisfied -- are also little changed over the last 5 months. The current level of satisfaction is nowhere near as low as it has been at several times over recent decades. The low points for this measure were 12% in 1979 and 14% in 1992.
The Economy
President Bush's move late last week to shake up his economic team is well-timed. Gallup's first ratings of consumer perceptions of the economy in December do not show a continuation of the slight increase in consumer confidence noted by most November surveys, and reflect continuing doubts on the part of the average American that things are getting better as far as the economy is concerned. (The early Gallup readings each month are usually predictive of where other consumer confidence ratings will be later in the month.) Only 25% of Americans now rate the U.S. economy as excellent or good, down from 32% just before Thanksgiving. The current ratings are back to where they were in August and September. A slight majority of Americans also continue to say that economic conditions are getting worse rather than better.
Last week's administration changes came at almost precisely the same time that national unemployment data showed joblessness matching an 8-year high. This is not news to Americans, only a quarter of whom have been saying that now is a good time to find a quality job over the past year. In fact, the trend is down, not up. Only 20% of workers said that now is a good time to find a job in our just-completed poll -- the lowest since we began asking this question in August 2001.
Bush administration and other Republican officials continue to talk about the possibility of tax cuts next year as a major component of the effort to boost the economy. Gallup data show that Americans aren't all that excited about the prospect. The public is OK with the idea of making last year's tax cuts permanent (under current law they are set to expire in 2011), but less than a majority favor new tax cuts on top of those already passed.
Americans' Satisfaction With Their Personal Lives
One of the remarkable findings in polling is the degree to which most Americans are able to live lives of quiet satisfaction despite the roiling turmoil of national and international crises that continually surface around them. Our weekend survey showed that 83% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in their personal lives, little changed from dozens of readings on this measure we have obtained over the last 23 years.
Are you happy? If not, you are decidedly in the minority. Only 6% of Americans say they are "not too happy." The rest are either "very happy" (49%) or at least "fairly happy" (44%). The happiest Americans include those with the highest levels of education, those making the most money, those who are married, and Republicans.
Popular News Sources
A preliminary analysis of new Gallup Poll data shows a big jump over the past 3 years in the reported use of radio talk shows as a source of news, and such use is significantly higher among Republicans than among Democrats, and higher among conservatives than among liberals. This tends to confirm the conventional wisdom (enunciated in recent weeks by both Al Gore and Bill Clinton) that Rush Limbaugh-type radio talk shows have become a prominent source of information for ideological conservatives across the country.
Local news sources are still the most important of all those tested -- particularly local television newscasts, from which 73% of Americans say they get their news at least several times a week. Use of local newspapers is down from 1999, and newspaper readership is especially low among younger Americans.