GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Al Gore's announcement that he would not seek the presidency dramatically altered the race for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004. According to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, a majority of Democrats (56%) agree with his decision not to seek the nomination, while 38% wish he had stayed in the race. Earlier Gallup polling showed Gore with a commanding lead for the Democratic nomination, but following his departure, Gore's 2000 running mate Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry have moved to the front of the pack. While New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has publicly stated she will not run for president in 2004, the poll shows she would be the clear front-runner if she decided to seek her party's nomination.
The poll, conducted Dec. 16-17, finds that 25% of Democratic registered voters say they would be most likely to support Lieberman for the party's 2004 presidential nomination. Slightly fewer, 21%, would support Kerry, but the difference is within the poll's margin of error. Outgoing House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt is supported by 14% of Democratic registered voters, followed by current Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle at 10%. North Carolina Senator John Edwards, the Reverend Al Sharpton, and Vermont Governor Howard Dean are each supported by 5% or less.
| Candidate Most Likely to Support for Democratic Nomination for President in 2004 |
 |
| Democrat/Lean Democrat Registered Voters; Dec. 16-17, 2002 |
When this trial heat question was last asked in November, Gore led with the support of 36% of Democratic registered voters, while Kerry, Lieberman, and Daschle all had 12% support, and Gephardt had 9%.
Lieberman's standing is a reflection in part of his status as the most well known and most positively rated of the Democratic contenders. Currently, 70% of Democrats know enough about Lieberman to have an opinion and 54% rate him favorably. By comparison, 96% of Democrats are familiar with Gore and 77% rate him favorably.
Kerry looks like a potentially strong challenger, given his current proximity to Lieberman in the trial heat question -- despite the fact that he is not that well known among Democrats (only 45% have an opinion of Kerry). And while Daschle and Gephardt are nearly as well known and favorably rated as Lieberman among Democrats, fewer Democrats would support either man for the nomination.
Democrats' Opinions of Leading Contenders for 2004 Presidential Nomination
|
Candidate |
Percent with an opinion of candidate |
Percent with favorable opinions |
Percent with unfavorable opinions |
|
Joe Lieberman |
70 |
54 |
16 |
|
Tom Daschle |
65 |
53 |
12 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
64 |
51 |
13 |
|
John Kerry |
45 |
38 |
7 |
Race Would Change if Clinton Entered
The poll finds that 48% of Democrats are pleased with the selection of current candidates, while 39% would like to see some other candidate enter. Nevertheless, there continues to be much speculation as to Hillary Rodham Clinton's plans in 2004. The junior New York senator has promised to serve her entire senate term, which expires at the end of 2006. However, if Clinton did enter the race, she would be the clear front-runner. Clinton is as well known as Gore (94% of Democrats have an opinion of her) and currently has a 72% favorable rating among Democrats, much higher than any of those seriously considering a run for the nomination.
Forty-one percent of Democratic registered voters say they would support Clinton if she decided to run for the 2004 presidential nomination, while 54% would vote for another candidate. A recalculation of support levels with Clinton in the race shows that Kerry's support would fall to 16% and Lieberman's to 15%. Gephardt's support would drop to 8%, while Daschle's would dip to 5%. The decline in Lieberman's standing reflects the proportionately larger number of his supporters who would defect to a Clinton candidacy if she decided to enter the race.
| Candidate Most Likely to Support for Democratic Nomination for President in 2004 if Hillary Clinton Runs |
 |
| Democrat/Lean Democrat Registered Voters; Dec. 16-17, 2002 |
Democratic Nominee Will Face Tough Challenge
The eventual victor in the Democratic nomination fight probably will face a stiff challenge from President George W. Bush in the general election. Fifty-one percent of registered voters currently say they would be likely to vote for Bush if he seeks re-election, while 37% say they are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for president. Bush has been at or above 50% among registered voters in six measurements of this question since October 2001.
However, the Democratic presidential hopefuls can draw some inspiration from the 1992 election. As late as September 1991, less than 14 months before the election, 51% of Americans said they would vote for then-president George Bush, and only 29% said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate. Bill Clinton won the 1992 election with 43% of the vote compared with 37% for Bush.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 449 Democrats or independents that lean to the Democratic Party, 18 years and older, conducted Dec. 16-17, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 5 percentage points. For the sample of 394 Democrats and Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
If George W. Bush runs for re-election in 2004, in general are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?
|
|
Democratic candidate |
OTHER |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
George W. Bush |
||||
|
National Adults |
||||
|
2002 Dec 16-17 |
49 |
37 |
4 |
10 |
|
2002 Oct 3-6 |
52 |
35 |
2 |
11 |
|
2002 Jul 29-31 |
50 |
34 |
3 |
13 |
|
2002 Jun 21-23 |
51 |
36 |
3 |
10 |
|
2002 Apr 29-May 1 |
56 |
31 |
3 |
10 |
|
2001 Oct 5-6 |
54 |
29 |
2 |
15 |
|
Registered Voters |
||||
|
2002 Dec 16-17 |
51 |
37 |
3 |
9 |
|
2002 Oct 3-6 |
54 |
35 |
1 |
10 |
|
2002 Jul 29-31 |
51 |
34 |
3 |
12 |
|
2002 Jun 21-23 |
51 |
37 |
3 |
9 |
|
2002 Apr 29-May 1 |
56 |
32 |
3 |
9 |
|
2001 Oct 5-6 |
56 |
29 |
2 |
13 |
|
George H.W. Bush |
||||
|
National Adults |
||||
|
1992 Jan 31-Feb 2 |
46 |
38 |
-- |
16 |
|
1992 Jan 3-9 |
42 |
41 |
-- |
17 |
|
1991 Dec 5-8 |
48 |
34 |
-- |
18 |
|
1991 Nov 21-24 |
48 |
36 |
-- |
16 |
|
1991 Oct 31-Nov 3 |
46 |
36 |
-- |
18 |
|
1991 Oct 10-13 |
49 |
32 |
-- |
19 |
|
1991 Sep 13-15 |
51 |
29 |
-- |
20 |
|
1991 Sep 5-8 |
52 |
29 |
-- |
19 |
|
1991 Aug 23-25 |
55 |
27 |
-- |
18 |
|
1991 Jun 13-16 |
51 |
30 |
-- |
19 |
|
1991 Apr 25-28 |
51 |
30 |
-- |
19 |
|
1991 Mar 7-10 |
67 |
17 |
-- |
16 |
|
1991 Feb 14-17 |
54 |
33 |
-- |
13 |
|
1991-1992 WORDING: If George Bush runs for re-election in 1992, in general are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president? |
||||
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2004. [ROTATED:Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, Connecticut Senator, Joe Lieberman, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Missouri Congressman, Dick Gephardt, Senate Democratic Leader, Tom Daschle, Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton]
BASED ON --449-- DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
BASED ON --394-- REGISTERED DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
|
2002 Dec 16-17 |
||
|
National Adults |
Registered Voters |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
24 |
25 |
|
John Kerry |
21 |
21 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
13 |
14 |
|
Tom Daschle |
10 |
10 |
|
Al Sharpton |
5 |
4 |
|
John Edwards |
4 |
5 |
|
Howard Dean |
3 |
3 |
|
Other |
3 |
3 |
|
No One |
6 |
5 |
|
No Opinion |
11 |
10 |
Are you generally pleased with the selection of the candidates running for the Democratic nomination, or do you wish someone else was running for president?
BASED ON --449-- DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
|
Pleased with |
Wish some other candidate would enter |
No |
|
|
2002 Dec 16-17 |
48% |
39 |
13 |
|
1992 Mar 11-12 |
42% |
54 |
5 |
|
1992 Feb 19-20 |
45% |
45 |
10 |
If Hillary Rodham Clinton were to run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, would you be more likely to support Hillary Clinton, or [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q.18 OR ASK "another Democratic candidate" IF NO RESPONSE IN Q.18] for the nomination?
BASED ON --449-- DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
|
|
Other candidate |
DEPENDS (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 Dec 16-17 |
41% |
54 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.18/Q.20)
BASED ON --449-- DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
BASED ON --394-- DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
|
2002 Dec 16-17 |
||
|
National Adults |
Registered Voters |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
Hillary Rodham Clinton |
41 |
40 |
|
John Kerry |
15 |
16 |
|
Joe Lieberman |
14 |
15 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
8 |
8 |
|
Tom Daschle |
5 |
5 |
|
John Edwards |
3 |
4 |
|
Al Sharpton |
3 |
2 |
|
Howard Dean |
2 |
2 |
|
Other |
2 |
2 |
|
No One |
1 |
1 |
|
No Opinion |
6 |
5 |
Do you -- [ROTATED: wish that Al Gore had stayed in the race for president in 2004, (or do you) agree with his decision not to run for president in 2004]?
BASED ON --449-- DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
|
Wish Gore |
Agree with |
No |
|
|
2002 Dec 16-17 |
38% |
56 |
6 |
Now that Al Gore has dropped out of the race for the presidency, do you think the Democrats have a better -- or worse -- chance of winning the presidency in 2004, or are their chances the same as before?
|
Better |
Worse |
Same |
No opinion |
|
|
National Adults |
||||
|
2002 Dec 16-17 |
27% |
17 |
51 |
5 |
|
Republicans |
||||
|
2002 Dec 16-17 |
23% |
16 |
57 |
4 |
|
Independents |
||||
|
2002 Dec 16-17 |
32% |
15 |
47 |
6 |
|
Democrats |
||||
|
2002 Dec 16-17 |
27% |
20 |
48 |
5 |
