New rulings from the United States Supreme Court will dominate the news this week. On Monday, the court issued its mixed opinion on the University of Michigan's affirmative action policies, while later this week it is scheduled to issue an opinion on the constitutionality of Texas' anti-sodomy laws.
Affirmative Action
The Supreme Court ruled on two University of Michigan affirmative action cases, saying that a law school policy of favoring minority applicants is constitutional, but that a point system used in the undergraduate admissions process is not. It's widely believed that these Supreme Court decisions could have far-reaching implications in areas of American life beyond the college campus.
One thing is clear from a review of public opinion data relating to fairness and opportunity in American society in general: whites view these issues significantly differently than blacks do.
For example, a basic question from our recently released Gallup Poll Social Series survey on minority relations asks, "Do you feel that racial minorities in this country have equal job opportunities as whites, or not?" Fifty-five percent of whites say yes, compared to just 17% of blacks. Most other questions about equal opportunities and discrimination show the same pattern. In a Gallup Poll conducted earlier this year, 81% of whites said that black children have as good a chance as white children in their communities of getting a good education, compared to 50% of blacks.
These same divergent views on equality appear when we ask more directly about college admissions. Two-thirds of blacks are convinced that a white applicant to a major college or university would have a better chance of admission than a black applicant would. Whites have much more mixed perceptions, with 38% saying that the chances of the two students would be the same, 34% saying that the black student would have the advantage, and only 24% saying that the white student would have the advantage.
Given these differing perspectives, it is perhaps not surprising to find that about 6 in 10 blacks think that affirmative action programs need to be increased in this country, while the majority of other Americans say they should stay the same. Among whites, only 22% say affirmative action programs should be increased, while 40% say they should stay the same and another 28% say they should be decreased.
But our attempt to measure the issues involved in the Michigan case more directly doesn't show as extreme a pattern of racial polarization as we might expect. Three-quarters of whites say that college or university applicants should be admitted solely on the basis of merit, even if that policy results in few minority students being admitted. Among blacks, attitudes are different, but not dramatically so. A plurality of 49% of blacks agrees that race should be allowed as a criteria in college admissions, but a fairly strong 44% say college admissions should be based purely on merit, even if that means that few minority students are admitted.
Homosexual Relations
The other highly anticipated Supreme Court decision this week will focus on a Texas law that makes sodomy illegal.
There's little question that the majority of Americans do not believe that homosexual relations between consenting adults should be illegal in general. Gallup's most recent results from May 2003 show that 60% of Americans think homosexual relations between consenting adults should be legal, while just 35% think they should not.
Gallup has been asking this question since 1977, and there has been a significant shift in public opinion on this issue over the last 15 years. As recently as 1988, a majority of Americans said that homosexual relations should be illegal. The younger generation of Americans is much more accepting of homosexuality than the older generation, suggesting that the trend of increased acceptance will continue as time moves on and today's older Americans with their more conservative views on homosexuality become a smaller and smaller proportion of the population.
The issue of homosexual civil unions and marriages is also highly charged politically at the moment. The U.S. Supreme Court decision is not a political one, of course, but other issues relating to homosexuality have or will become legislative ones in the months and years ahead. An appeals court in Ottawa, Canada, recently changed the definition of marriage to include "two people" rather than a man and a woman, and there are indications that the Canadian government will pass laws legalizing same-sex marriage across Canada in future months. State legislatures in the United States are also in various states of consideration of similar bills.
Our latest poll shows great ambivalence on the issue of homosexual marriage among Americans, about half of whom favor allowing homosexual couples to form legal civil unions, while the other half does not.
Racial and Ethnic Labels
Should Americans of Hispanic origin be called "Hispanics" or "Latinos"? Many news stories routinely use the label "Latinos," but our recent Gallup Poll suggests that Americans of Hispanic origin in the poll strongly prefer the label "Hispanic" over "Latino," -- by a 59% to 14% margin.
A majority of Americans of African origin say it doesn't matter to them whether they are called "blacks" or "African Americans." Twenty-three percent of blacks prefer the term "African American," 15% prefer "black," and 62% say it doesn't matter or they have no opinion on the issue.
The Economy
The Federal Reserve Board will decide on Wednesday afternoon whether to further lower interest rates -- possibly to the lowest point in more than 40 years. If rates are cut, the move would come at a time when the American population is feeling slightly more positive about the economy.
There's been a slight, but steady, increase over the last several months in the percentage of Americans who believe that economic conditions will improve in the year ahead. Gallup surveys also indicate a similarly slight increase in the percentage of Americans who say their spending is going to increase. Finally, the June UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism has moved sharply upward, suggesting that investors are also seeing light at the end of the economic tunnel.
Medicare
Both houses of Congress are expected to vote affirmatively -- perhaps this week -- on a new Medicare benefit program that will provide new drug coverage -- good news for older Americans.
Gallup polling has shown consistently that Medicare and prescription drug coverage are major priorities for Americans. In fact, a new poll released by the Harvard School of Public Health and the Kaiser Family Foundation shows that Americans aged 65 and older consider the cost and availability of prescription drugs to be the single most important healthcare issue for the government to address.
The Harvard/Kaiser poll suggests that the Democrats have a slight edge over the Republicans when it comes to seniors' (those 65 and older) perceptions of the parties' ability to recommend the right thing for the Medicare program. But President Bush gets a slightly stronger vote of confidence than the Democrats or the Republicans.
The 2004 Presidential Campaign
Seven Democratic presidential candidates showed up at a Chicago forum sponsored by Jesse Jackson's Rainbow/PUSH coalition over the weekend, looking to bolster their standing with Jackson and among black Democratic voters.
The effort to maintain favorable relations with Jackson makes sense, according to our new Gallup Poll. Asked whom they feel is the most important national leader in the black community today, Secretary of State Colin Powell and Jesse Jackson were essentially tied for first place among black Americans, receiving 18% and 17% of the mentions. (About a third of blacks couldn't answer or had no opinion.)
The poll shows that Al Sharpton is the leading Democratic candidate for president among black Democrats who are registered to vote, with 24% naming Sharpton when asked whom they would be most likely to support for their party's nomination. Sharpton is followed by Sen. Joe Lieberman with 16% of black Democratic support, former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun with 12%, and Sen. Bob Graham of Florida with 8%.
Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will be up against an incumbent president with approval ratings well above the majority level, and with a significant lead over a generic Democratic candidate in pollsters' trial heat questions. However, there's an interesting difference between these two indicators. As Washington Post writer Dan Balz pointed on in a Sunday article, "Early polls show Bush receiving the support of less than 50 percent of the public when matched against a generic Democratic nominee. That is far below his approval rating, suggesting a wait-and-see attitude on the part of many voters."
The latest Gallup Poll actually shows that exactly 50% of Americans opt for Bush and 38% for the Democratic candidate, leaving a crucial 12% who aren't yet willing to make a choice. According to the same poll, 63% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing as president, 33% disapprove, and only 4% have no opinion.
Note that the percentage of Americans who say they would vote for a Democratic candidate against Bush is similar to the percentage who say they disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job as president. A core group of Americans oppose Bush now and say they wouldn't vote for him next year.
It appears that some of those who approve of the job Bush is doing in general move into the no opinion category when asked about their willingness to vote for Bush for president in 2004. These Americans are presumably positively predisposed toward Bush, but are -- as Balz suggests -- waiting either to see what their opinions of Bush will be a year from now, or to find out who the Democratic candidate will be.
Still, our historical analysis shows that there is a high potential for change in all of these measures between now and the November 2004 election.