Congress is back in session this week, an event that is probably not creating a great sense of excitement among Americans. Only 50% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, while 41% disapprove (9% have no opinion). That 50% approval rating is roughly in line with where it has been in 2003, but down from the generally higher marks Congress received in late 2001 and last year, in the aftermath of Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. The all-time low point for congressional approval (as measured by Gallup) was 18% in March 1992.
Congress will be taking on the task of reconciling differing House and Senate prescription drug bills. Americans are greatly in favor of the general concept of augmenting Medicare to include prescription drug coverage, but they are skeptical that whatever Congress comes up with will go far enough in helping them pay for the increasingly expensive drugs. There is also a more negative reaction -- particularly on the part of older Americans -- to the idea of privatizing the drug benefit.
The Senate will also focus on a bill limiting malpractice awards, although many observers doubt that it will get enough votes to pass. Gallup Poll data from earlier this year showed that Americans favor the concept of limiting both awards for emotional pain and suffering, and punishment to doctors as the result of negligence in medical malpractice cases.
World Affairs
President Bush left yesterday for a five-nation tour of Africa, amid observations from many commentators that -- for a variety of reasons -- the African continent may become an increasingly important part of the world in years to come.
The racial situation in South Africa was a high-profile issue in years past, as were other very specific situations such as the disastrous introduction of U.S. troops into Somalia in 1993. But American attention has generally been much more focused on Asia and Europe over the years. As a result, pollsters haven't asked Americans many questions about Africa.
In 2000, however, Gallup asked Americans how important what happened in various parts of the world was to the United States. The results showed what we might expect -- Africa came in dead last among the seven areas tested. Fifty-three percent of Americans thought that what happened in the Middle East was vitally important to U.S. interests, 39% felt that what happened in Western Europe was vitally important, but only 18% thought that what happened in Africa was vitally important.
Bush's trip and the possibility that U.S. troops may be sent to Liberia may change those perceptions.
There may be a significant interest in Bush's trip among American blacks because of their African heritage. However, some interesting Gallup polling shows that most American blacks are considerably far removed from a direct connection to Africa. In 2001, we asked Americans to tell us if they, their parents, or their grandparents had emigrated from other countries or if all had been born in the United States. The results showed that black Americans have a more long-term American lineage than any of the other racial and ethnic groups analyzed: Only 13% of Hispanics in America have a lineage of American natives dating back three generations (meaning that they, their parents, and their grandparents were born in the United States). Fifty-eight percent of whites say they are third-generation Americans, but a full 75% of blacks have been in the United States for three generations or more.
The Economy
Business sections of this weekend's newspapers were filled with mutual fund reports for the second quarter, which ended on June 30. The good news: Mutual funds were up this quarter, and year-to-date, the average mutual fund has returned over 10% on investment.
This positive news fits with the June UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism, which shows that investors have become less negative about the investment climate. But the change has not been significant. Investors still have a long way to go to recover their confidence of the boom years of the late 1990s and 2000.
Similarly, Gallup indicators of consumer optimism show that Americans have become somewhat more optimistic that the trend in the national economy is positive. But most Americans are still quite negative when asked to rate either the current economic conditions in the country or the situation for those looking for work.
The first effects of the new tax-cut law will be felt this month. Businesses are supposed to have adjusted their withholding tables by now to give workers more take-home pay, and child tax-credit checks should be in the mail to parents by the end of the month.
The Bush administration's strategy, of course, is to put more money into Americans' pockets, which the public is then supposed to turn around and spend immediately. No one will be able to reliably gauge the tax cut's impact for months -- if ever. The cut comes at a time when other economic indicators, such as the stock market, are looking positive. It may be difficult to distinguish exactly how much the tax cut had to do with an upsurge in the economy, if indeed such an upsurge takes place.
Americans aren't necessarily expecting a great deal out of the tax cut. Just a third of the public thinks the new cuts will make a significant difference to their family finances. Over half of the nation's workers don't expect to get any more money from the new tax cut at all, and just a little over a half of American parents anticipate getting a child tax-credit rebate.
If Americans do realize that they have received new and unanticipated money as a result of the tax cut, it's far from certain that they'll immediately rush to the mall. About half of Americans say they would use a tax-cut windfall to pay off bills. A third said they would save it. Just 22% would spend it, while only 1% said they would give it to charity. It's possible that paying off bills could ultimately result in more spending money for consumers, but that's not at all a certainty.
Howard Dean
Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has captured the iconoclast-buzz position in these early stages of the run-up to the 2004 election. Articles about the outspoken doctor-governor have been appearing with remarkably frequency in the nation's news media, mostly playing up the fact that Dean has raised over $7 million based in part on the ingenious use of the Internet. He is also considered one of the early leaders in the critically important New Hampshire Democratic primary election, now just over six months away. New Hampshire, of course, borders both Dean's and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry's home states, which gives them both an edge in that crucial primary.
It's not at all uncommon for a more outspoken seemingly anti-establishment candidate to capture the attention of not only a disaffected minority of voters in a presidential year, but also the attention of the nation's press, starved as usual for new election news. Dean fits that mold; unlike other Democratic contenders, he has been decisively outspoken in criticism of the war with Iraq, and his uncompromising style appeals to iconoclasts.
But nothing in our data suggests that Dean has yet to catch on with Democrats to measurable extent. Among registered Democrats nationally, he's getting just 7% of the vote in our latest poll. That's essentially unchanged from March. And a recent Gallup analysis shows that Dean's support is not particularly larger among any identifiable group of Democrats -- including liberal Democrats, to whom it is supposed he is more likely to appeal.
The larger point, which I make with some frequency, is that it's simply too early to tell if the Dean buzz is a boomlet that will fizzle, or the beginning of a more substantive rise. Certainly the Dean campaign has not missed the point that three Democratic nominees over the last quarter-century have been obscure Democratic governors who arose seemingly out of nowhere to capture the nomination (and the presidency in two of the three cases): Jimmy Carter, Michael Dukakis, and Bill Clinton. But the appeal of other candidates in past election seasons has soared and ultimately gone nowhere, including in 2000 the campaign of outspoken Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
Arnold Schwarzenegger
Speaking of politics, there's the fascinating case of actor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The latest Los Angeles Times poll shows that 51% of California's registered voters would elect to recall Democratic Gov. Gray Davis. Forty-two percent would vote against a recall, according to the poll. If Davis is recalled, the new governor would be selected in the same vote among a list of names included on the ballot. Most of the attention has been focused on high-profile actor Schwarzenegger, who has indicated that he might consider entering politics (now that his new movie Terminator III is in theaters) and that he might consider allowing his name to be put on a recall ballot.
The Los Angeles Times poll shows that Schwarzenegger comes in tied for second in a list that includes Democratic contenders, and also comes in second if the list is constrained to Republicans (Schwarzenegger comes in behind former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan).
We asked Americans nationwide how they felt about Schwarzenegger in February of this year. His image is quite strong, with 72% of Americans saying they have a favorable opinion of the former bodybuilding champion, and only 14% having an unfavorable opinion. The question was asked in the context of actors who were outspoken on political issues; we don't have a good read on how most Americans outside of California would feel about Schwarzenegger if he were to get involved in the national political scene.
All-Star Game
Baseball's annual all-star game will take place July 15 in Chicago. Major League Baseball is looking for a more positive experience than last year's all-star game, which officials shut down in the 11th inning, claiming that the two teams had run out of viable pitchers. Once America's favorite pastime, baseball now comes in third when Americans are asked about their favorite sport to watch. About a third of Americans are baseball fans, a proportion significantly below the fan penetration for professional football and basketball.