GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- It is still eight weeks until the California recall election, and voters have hardly had time to digest the news about the various candidates who want to replace the incumbent Democrat, Gov. Gray Davis. Still, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll over the past weekend provides some indication of how difficult a job it will be for Democrats to retain control of the California governor's seat. Republicans and independents overwhelmingly favor recalling Davis, and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger is the clear favorite among both groups. But even among Democrats, there is substantial support for the recall of Davis and the election of the Republican Schwarzenegger.
Democrats represent about 37% of registered voters in California. They oppose the recall by only a modest margin of 52% to 40%, with the rest undecided. Independents, however, support the recall by a 37-point margin, 64% to 27%, while Republicans are almost unanimous: 91% in favor, just 6% opposed.
|
If the recall election were being held today, would you vote to – [ROTATED: remove Davis from office, (or would you vote to) keep Davis in office]? |
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|
Remove |
Keep |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
Overall |
64 |
29 |
|
Political Party |
||
|
Republican |
91 |
6 |
|
Independent |
64 |
27 |
|
Democrat |
40 |
52 |
|
Political Ideology |
||
|
Conservative |
84 |
13 |
|
Moderate |
59 |
33 |
|
Liberal |
44 |
49 |
|
Gender |
||
|
Male |
64 |
30 |
|
Female |
64 |
28 |
|
Age |
||
|
18-29 |
71 |
28 |
|
30-49 |
65 |
26 |
|
50-64 |
62 |
32 |
|
65+ |
58 |
35 |
|
Education |
||
|
High school or less |
67 |
27 |
|
Some college |
69 |
25 |
|
College grad |
61 |
29 |
|
Post-grad |
48 |
46 |
|
Race |
||
|
White |
66 |
28 |
|
Non-white |
62 |
30 |
There is a similar pattern by political ideology -- liberals are slightly opposed to a recall (by 49% to 44%), but moderates are substantially in favor (59% support, 33% oppose) and conservatives are overwhelmingly in favor (84% to 13%).
Men and women show similar levels of support, as do whites and non-whites. Older voters are somewhat less supportive than younger ones, but the margin among the 65 and older group is still robust: 58% for recall, just 35% against.
Among the voters who have received some post-graduate education, amounting to one in seven voters, sentiment is about equally divided, with 48% in favor of recall and 46% opposed. However, among all other educational groups, support is greater than two to one.
Schwarzenegger vs. Bustamante
It is likely that the major contest among candidates who want to replace Davis will be between Arnold Schwarzenegger and Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, the only major Democratic official to file. The weekend poll shows that on the question of whether there is a "very good chance" a voter will support each candidate, the actor outpolls the politician by 24% to 8%. If voters who say a "very good chance" are added to those who say a "good chance," the margin is even larger -- 42% for Schwarzenegger, 22% for Bustamante.
Now, for each of the following, please tell me whether you think there is a very good chance that you would vote for that person to replace Governor Gray Davis if he is recalled, a good chance, some chance, not much chance, or no chance at all. How about – [RANDOM ORDER]?
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Actor, Arnold Schwarzenegger |
24% |
18 |
20 |
8 |
27 |
* |
3 |
|
Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante |
8% |
14 |
19 |
8 |
47 |
1 |
3 |
Though the lieutenant governor is a Democrat, he receives only a little more support among Democratic voters than does Schwarzenegger, by 36% to 30%. But the actor receives much more support than Bustamante among independents (42% to 18%) and Republicans (55% to 11%). A similar pattern is found among ideological groups.
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Percent of Registered Voters Saying There Is a "Very Good" or "Good" Chance They Would Vote for: |
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|
Schwarzenegger |
Bustamante |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
Overall |
42 |
22 |
|
Political Party |
||
|
Republican |
55 |
11 |
|
Independent |
42 |
18 |
|
Democrat |
30 |
36 |
|
Political ideology |
||
|
Conservative |
56 |
16 |
|
Moderate |
39 |
21 |
|
Liberal |
26 |
35 |
|
Gender |
||
|
Male |
45 |
23 |
|
Female |
39 |
21 |
|
Age |
||
|
18-29 |
40 |
31 |
|
30-49 |
43 |
19 |
|
50-64 |
42 |
27 |
|
65+ |
43 |
18 |
|
Education |
||
|
High school or less |
47 |
28 |
|
Some college |
39 |
21 |
|
College grad |
46 |
13 |
|
Post-grad |
38 |
21 |
|
Race |
||
|
White |
45 |
15 |
|
Non-white |
38 |
32 |
|
Income |
||
|
< $30K |
50 |
37 |
|
$30K-$50K |
38 |
20 |
|
$50K-$75K |
26 |
17 |
|
$75K+ |
47 |
19 |
Support for Schwarzenegger, at about the 40% level or above, is quite consistent among men and women, in all age and education groups, and among whites and non-whites. Support for Bustamante, however, varies considerably among these groups -- with a low of 13% among college grads to a high of 32% among non-whites.
Half (50%) of lower income voters say there is a very good or good chance they will support Schwarzenegger, the highest support among the income groups. But 37% of this same group also say they could vote for Bustamante, also the highest among the income groups. Schwarzenegger's margin among these groups ranges from a low of 9 points (among the $50K-$75K income group) to a high of 28 points among voters with incomes of $75K or higher.
Much can change between now and the election, of course, but the widespread support enjoyed by Schwarzenegger will make it difficult for the Democrats to prevail. Unless they can unite their own voter base, they will have little chance of making either contest competitive.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 801 registered voters in Californian, aged 18+, conducted August 7-10, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Probable voters include a subsample of 562 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the Oct. 7 California recall election, based on their level of interest and intention to vote. For results based on the sample of probable voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Now, for each of the following, please tell me whether you think there is a very good chance that you would vote for that person to replace Governor Gray Davis if he is recalled, a good chance, some chance, not much chance, or no chance at all. How about – [RANDOM ORDER]?
A. Actor, Arnold Schwarzenegger
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
24% |
18 |
20 |
8 |
27 |
* |
3 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
28% |
20 |
20 |
6 |
24 |
0 |
2 |
B. Lieutenant Governor, Cruz Bustamante
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
8% |
14 |
21 |
8 |
42 |
3 |
4 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
8% |
14 |
19 |
8 |
47 |
1 |
3 |
* -- less than 0.5%
