GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- President Bush's job rating has settled down into the high 50s and low 60s as the rally effect that resulted from the Iraq war has faded. Bush's most recent job rating of 59% is slightly above Gallup's historical average approval rating of 56% for all presidents since Harry Truman, but is also below Bush's term average of 68%. For most of his presidency, Bush has been rated much more highly for his handling of foreign affairs than for his handling of domestic issues such as the economy, and a recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows the trend continuing. Bush receives high marks on terrorism, Iraq, and foreign affairs, but lower marks for several domestic issues. The poll also finds that a majority of Americans say they are more likely to vote for Bush than the generic Democratic candidate in 2004.
The poll, conducted Aug. 25-26, asked Americans to rate the job Bush is doing in each of nine issue areas, including three international and six domestic issues. Bush gets the highest marks for his handling of terrorism, with 66% approving of him in this area. Interestingly, this is the only issue area in which Bush receives a substantially higher approval rating than his 59% overall job rating.
GEORGE W. BUSH JOB APPROVAL ON ISSUES
|
2003 Aug 25-26 (sorted by "approve") |
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
Terrorism |
66 |
31 |
|
Overall Job Approval |
59 |
37 |
|
The situation with Iraq |
57 |
41 |
|
Foreign Affairs |
55 |
42 |
|
Taxes |
52 |
44 |
|
Energy policy |
47 |
44 |
|
The economy |
45 |
52 |
|
Healthcare policy |
43 |
48 |
|
Medicare |
40 |
48 |
|
The federal budget deficit |
39 |
55 |
Bush's next-highest scores also come with respect to international matters -- 57% approve of his handling of the situation with Iraq, and 55% approve of his handling of foreign affairs more generally.
On only one domestic issue -- taxes -- does a majority of Americans approve of Bush. More Americans approve (47%) than disapprove (44%) of Bush's handling of energy policy, but his approval falls below a majority. On four issues, more Americans disapprove than approve of the job Bush is doing -- the economy, healthcare policy, Medicare, and the federal budget deficit. In fact, a majority of the public disapproves of Bush's handling of the economy and the deficit.
Majority Support Bush Re-Election Effort
Despite several negative numbers, Bush still does well when Americans are asked to indicate whether they are more likely to vote for Bush or for the generic Democratic candidate for president in 2004. The latest poll shows 51% of registered voters saying Bush, and 39% saying the Democrat. Since the war with Iraq began, support for Bush on this question has ranged from 46% to 51% among registered voters, while support for the Democrat has hovered between 36% and 42%.
The data may suggest the terrorism issue, on which he is rated most highly, is propping up Bush's job approval ratings and re-election prospects. Some experts credit the terrorism issue with helping Republicans gain control of the Senate and increase their number of seats in the House of Representatives in the 2002 congressional elections. Bush's overall approval rating still remains above where it was just prior to the terrorist attacks (51% in a Sept. 7-10 Gallup Poll), and the public does not give Bush exceptionally high marks on most other issues.
However, a special analysis of the data shows that Bush's general rating on foreign affairs is most strongly related to his current job rating. For each issue, we performed a correlational analysis to measure the strength of the relationship between the rating people give Bush on a particular issue and the overall rating they give Bush. In the following table, a correlation of 0 would indicate no relationship between the issue rating and Bush's overall approval rating, and a correlation of 1 would indicate a perfect 1-to-1 relationship. The analysis shows foreign affairs has the strongest relationship, followed closely by the situation in Iraq. Terrorism comes further down the list, with taxes, the economy, and energy policy bearing a stronger relationship to one's overall view of Bush than terrorism bears.
RELATIONSHIP OF BUSH RATING ON ISSUES TO HIS OVERALL APPROVAL RATING
|
|
|
|
Foreign Affairs |
.79 |
|
The situation with Iraq |
.75 |
|
Taxes |
.64 |
|
The economy |
.64 |
|
Energy policy |
.63 |
|
Terrorism |
.60 |
|
The federal budget deficit |
.58 |
|
Healthcare policy |
.57 |
|
Medicare |
.57 |
A more detailed analysis of these data supports these basic findings, and shows that even after taking into account one's partisan affiliation, a person's rating of Bush on foreign affairs is the strongest predictor of one's overall view of him. This analysis also shows that in addition to foreign affairs ratings and party affiliation, ratings of Bush on Iraq, taxes, and energy policy help predict whether a person approves of Bush, but ratings of Bush on the deficit, healthcare, Medicare, terrorism, and the economy do not.
These results indicate that most Americans' current evaluations of Bush are strongly influenced by their perceptions of his job of handling foreign affairs. The president's accomplishments in that area (military success in Afghanistan and Iraq) have so far overshadowed his efforts to help jump-start the struggling economy. Whether this is a result of an increased international outlook for the American public following Sept. 11 is unclear. However, Bush's ability to deal with post-war Iraq and other international matters (Liberia, North Korea, and the Middle East) could be crucial in determining public support for Bush in the future, even if the economy does not fully recover.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,009 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 25-26, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
3. If George W. Bush runs for re-election in 2004, in general, are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?
|
|
Democratic candidate |
OTHER |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
George W. Bush |
||||
|
National Adults |
||||
|
(NA) 2003 Aug 25-26 |
51 |
39 |
4 |
6 |
|
(NA) 2003 Jul 25-27 |
48 |
40 |
5 |
7 |
|
(NA) 2003 Jul 18-20 |
47 |
41 |
3 |
9 |
|
(NA) 2003 Jun 12-18 |
50 |
38 |
3 |
9 |
|
(NA) 2003 Apr 22-23 |
49 |
35 |
3 |
13 |
|
(NA) 2003 Mar 29-30 |
51 |
36 |
4 |
9 |
|
(NA) 2003 Mar 14-15 |
45 |
42 |
5 |
8 |
|
(NA) 2003 Feb 24-26 |
46 |
40 |
4 |
10 |
|
(NA) 2002 Dec 16-17 |
49 |
37 |
4 |
10 |
|
(NA) 2002 Oct 3-6 |
52 |
35 |
2 |
11 |
|
(NA) 2002 Jul 29-31 |
50 |
34 |
3 |
13 |
|
(NA) 2002 Jun 21-23 |
51 |
36 |
3 |
10 |
|
(NA) 2002 Apr 29-May 1 |
56 |
31 |
3 |
10 |
|
(NA) 2001 Oct 5-6 |
54 |
29 |
2 |
15 |
|
Registered Voters |
||||
|
(RV) 2003 Aug 25-26 |
51 |
39 |
4 |
6 |
|
(RV) 2003 Jul 25-27 |
49 |
40 |
5 |
6 |
|
(RV) 2003 Jul 18-20 |
46 |
42 |
3 |
9 |
|
(RV) 2003 Jun 12-18 |
51 |
39 |
3 |
7 |
|
(RV) 2003 Apr 22-23 |
49 |
36 |
3 |
12 |
|
(RV) 2003 Mar 29-30 |
51 |
36 |
4 |
9 |
|
(RV) 2003 Mar 14-15 |
45 |
42 |
5 |
8 |
|
(RV) 2003 Feb 24-26 |
47 |
39 |
4 |
10 |
|
(RV) 2002 Dec 16-17 |
51 |
37 |
3 |
9 |
|
(RV) 2002 Oct 3-6 |
54 |
35 |
1 |
10 |
|
(RV) 2002 Jul 29-31 |
51 |
34 |
3 |
12 |
|
(RV) 2002 Jun 21-23 |
51 |
37 |
3 |
9 |
|
(RV) 2002 Apr 29-May 1 |
56 |
32 |
3 |
9 |
|
(RV) 2001 Oct 5-6 |
56 |
29 |
2 |
13 |
|
George H.W. Bush |
||||
|
(RV) 1992 Jan 31-Feb 2 |
46 |
38 |
-- |
16 |
|
(RV) 1992 Jan 3-6 |
39 |
43 |
-- |
18 |
|
(RV) 1991 Dec 5-8 |
48 |
34 |
-- |
18 |
|
(RV) 1991 Nov 14-17 |
48 |
36 |
-- |
16 |
|
(RV) 1991 Oct 31-Nov 3 |
46 |
36 |
-- |
18 |
|
(RV) 1991 Oct 10-13 |
49 |
32 |
-- |
19 |
|
(RV) 1991 Sep 13-15 |
51 |
29 |
-- |
20 |
|
(RV) 1991 Sep 5-8 |
52 |
29 |
-- |
19 |
|
(RV) 1991 Aug 23-25 |
55 |
27 |
-- |
18 |
|
(RV) 1991 Jun 13-16 |
53 |
30 |
-- |
17 |
|
(RV) 1991 Apr 25-28 |
51 |
30 |
-- |
19 |
|
(RV) 1991 Mar 7-10 |
67 |
17 |
-- |
16 |
|
(RV) 1991 Feb 14-17 |
54 |
33 |
-- |
13 |
|
1991-1992 WORDING: If George Bush runs for re-election in 1992, in general are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president? |
||||
4. Do you think the Bush administration does – or does not – have a clear plan for handling the economy?
|
Yes, does |
No, does not |
No opinion |
|
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
43% |
54 |
3 |
31. Do you think the Bush administration does – or does not – have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq?
|
Yes, does |
No, does not |
No opinion |
|
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
44% |
54 |
2 |
