Economy, Terrorism Top Issues in 2004 Election Vote

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2004 presidential election just over a year away, Americans tell Gallup that the economy and terrorism are the issues most likely to influence their choice for president next year. Republicans are more likely to say issues related to terrorism and Iraq will be extremely important to their vote in next year's presidential election, while Democrats are more likely to assign importance to domestic issues like the economy and jobs, both of which are consistent with the political parties' issue strengths.

Most Important Issues in Election 2004

A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Sept. 19-21, asked Americans to rate the importance of candidates' positions on 15 separate issues in influencing their vote for president in the next election.

The most important issues, according to the poll, are those related to the economy and the war against terrorism. Nearly half of all Americans, 49%, say that presidential candidates' stances on the economy and on terrorism will be extremely important to their vote next year. Creating or protecting American jobs and the situation in Iraq follow close behind in importance. Forty-six percent of Americans say each of these issues will be extremely important in determining their vote next year.

Other issues with slightly lower levels of importance include: education (45% say it is extremely important), healthcare (43%), the federal budget deficit (39%), Social Security (36%), taxes (36%), and Medicare (36%).

Further down the list comes the environment, with 30% saying it will be extremely important, and energy, with 27% saying it will be extremely important. The lowest rated issue on the list is policies toward gays and lesbians, with only 12% saying the candidates' positions on this issue will be extremely important to their vote.

Salience of Issues in the 2004 Presidential Election (based on percentage saying "extremely important")

Sep 19-21, 2003

Partisanship and the Salience of Issues in 2004 Election

The poll results confirm that Republicans and Democrats attach significantly different levels of importance to a number of the issues.

• Terrorism appears to be the issue that will dominate the minds of Republicans in their choice for president next November. Fifty-seven percent of Republicans say terrorism will be extremely important. The situation in Iraq is the second most important issue among Republicans, at 47%. The economy, at 45%, protecting or creating American jobs, at 42%, and education, at 42% follow next in the list.
• Democrats are more likely to indicate that domestic issues will be important to their vote in the next election. The economy is the top-rated issue among Democrats, with 57% saying the candidates' stance on the economy will be extremely important to their vote. Among Democrats, the economy is followed by the situation in Iraq (51%), education (51%), healthcare (51%), the job situation (50%), and the federal budget deficit (50%). Terrorism, the most important issue for Republicans, is perceived as important by only 48% of Democrats.
• Issues that are less important to both Republicans and Democrats include policies toward gays and lesbians, the environment, and energy.
• The largest partisan gaps in the perceived importance of issues are seen for several key domestic issues. Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to say the federal budget deficit, the environment, Medicare, healthcare, Social Security, the economy, and energy will be extremely important to their vote next year. Republicans are more inclined than Democrats to say terrorism will be extremely important to their vote.

Salience of Issues in the 2004 Presidential Election by Partisanship (based on percentage saying "extremely important")
	Republicans	Independents	Democrats	Difference Between Republicans and Democrats
	%	%	%	%
Terrorism	57	45	48	9
Policies toward gays and lesbians	13	9	13	0
Foreign affairs	30	28	33	-3
The situation in Iraq	47	40	51	-4
Taxes	35	32	41	-6
Protecting/Creating American jobs	42	46	50	-8
Education	42	42	51	-9
Energy	21	27	32	-11
The economy	45	45	57	-12
Social Security	30	35	42	-12
Healthcare	36	40	51	-15
Medicare	27	35	45	-18
The environment	20	28	38	-18
The federal budget deficit	29	35	50	-21

Age Differences on 2004 Election Issues

The Sept. 19-21 poll also shows some intriguing differences between the views of younger Americans and older Americans.

• Americans in the 18- to 29-year-old group tend to rate issues that would more directly affect their lives as the most important to their vote in the 2004 presidential election. At least half of all 18- to-29-year-olds say education (55%), protecting or creating American jobs (52%), and the economy (51%) will be an extremely important issue to their vote next November. Fewer than half of those aged 18 to 29 say terrorism, the situation in Iraq, healthcare, taxes, and the federal budget deficit will be an extremely important factor in their vote for president.
• Among 30- to 49-year-olds, the top-rated issues are the economy and terrorism, each with a slight majority of respondents saying these will be important factors in their vote in the 2004 election. The situation in Iraq, jobs, education, and healthcare are also prominent issues to people in this age group, with slightly fewer than half saying these are extremely important.
• The top issues among 50- to 64-year-olds, similar to those among the 30 to 49 age group, include terrorism, at 55%, the economy, at 50%, and the situation in Iraq, also at 50%.
• Interestingly, Americans aged 65 and older are less likely than those in younger age groups to rate 9 of the 15 issues tested as extremely important to their vote next year. However, the most salient issues for people 65 and older are the federal budget deficit (43%), terrorism (40%), the economy (40%), the situation in Iraq (40%), and Medicare (40%).

Salience of Issues in the 2004 Presidential Election by Age (based on percentage saying "extremely important")
	18- to 29-year-olds	30- to 49-year-olds	50- to 64-year-olds	65+ year-olds
	%	%	%	%
Education	55	47	43	34
Protecting/Creating American jobs	52	47	46	37
The economy	51	52	50	40
Terrorism	48	51	55	40
The situation in Iraq	43	48	50	40
Healthcare	41	45	46	37
Taxes	40	38	33	34
The federal budget deficit	39	39	33	43
The environment	34	30	30	22
Foreign affairs	32	33	31	23
Medicare	30	34	43	40
Social Security	30	34	46	36
Energy	25	28	31	25
Policies toward gays and lesbians	15	11	9	16

Survey Methods

The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,003 adults, aged 18 years and older, conducted Sept. 19-21, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Now I am going to read a list of some of the issues that will probably be discussed in next year's presidential election campaigns. As I read each one, please tell me how important the candidates' positions on that issue will be in influencing your vote for president -- extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important. How about -- [random order]?

2003 Sep 19-21 (sorted by "extremely")		Extremely important	Very important	Some-what important	Not important	No opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
The economy		49	42	9	*	*
Terrorism		49	38	11	2	*
Creating American jobs ^		46	45	8	1	*
Protecting American jobs ^		46	44	9	1	*
The situation in Iraq		46	36	14	4	*
Education		45	43	11	1	*
Healthcare		43	42	13	2	*
The federal budget deficit		39	35	23	2	1
Social Security		36	43	18	3	*
Taxes		36	41	20	2	1
Medicare		36	40	21	3	*
Foreign affairs		31	40	25	3	1
The environment		30	40	27	3	*
Energy		27	44	26	2	1
Policies toward gays and lesbians		12	16	31	39	2
*Less than 0.5%
^	Asked of a half sample. Protecting Americans jobs asked of 519 national adults in form A; Creating Americans jobs asked of 484 national adults in form B.