Support for Iraq War Holds Steady at 54%

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows public support for the Iraq war holding steady, with a slight majority expressing support for the effort. However, Americans' assessments of how the United States has handled the postwar situation are less positive, as more disapprove than approve, and a majority of Americans now favor a reduction in the number of U.S. troops in Iraq. The public is also divided over whether the war has positively or negatively affected the United States in general and whether it has made the nation safer from terrorism. A plurality of Americans say the war makes them less confident in President Bush's ability to handle the country's other problems.

Support for the War

The poll, conducted Oct. 24-26, finds 54% of Americans saying Iraq "was worth going to war over," while 44% say it was not. A poll conducted earlier this month showed 55% of the public saying the war effort was worth it, which was an increase over a 50% reading in late September. The percentage saying the war was worth it reached as high as 76% as the war's major fighting was taking place.

All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq is/was worth going to war over, or not?

A more basic question asking Americans whether they favor or oppose the war with Iraq shows similar results, with 54% saying they favor it and 43% saying they oppose it. Nearly 9 in 10 Republicans favor the war, while roughly three-quarters of Democrats oppose it. Independents are evenly divided, with 48% in favor and 49% opposed.

Postwar Assessments

However, results from several questions in the poll indicate the public overall is somewhat less supportive of the postwar situation. When asked whether they approve or disapprove of the way the United States has handled the situation with Iraq since the major fighting ended, 47% of Americans approve and 50% disapprove. Not surprisingly, the results on this question are considerably less positive now than they were in the first few weeks after the fall of Baghdad, at which time 80% approved and 18% disapproved.

A majority of the public, 57%, now favors a reduction in the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, including 18% who favor a complete withdrawal. Fourteen percent say the United States should send more troops, and 27% think the troop levels should be kept as they are now. This represents a shift in sentiment since late August, when a majority (51%) favored either sending more troops (15%) or keeping troop levels the same (36%), while only 46% thought the United States should begin to withdraw troops (32%) or withdraw them altogether (14%).

Which comes closest to your view about what the U.S. should now do about the number of U.S. troops in Iraq -- the U.S. should send more troops to Iraq, the U.S. should keep the number of troops as it is now, the U.S. should begin to withdraw some troops from Iraq, or the U.S. should withdraw all of its troops from Iraq?

An Oct. 6-8 Gallup Poll showed more Americans disapproving (50%) than approving (47%) of Bush's handling of Iraq, marking the first time in his presidency that a majority of Americans did not approve of the way he was handling the situation. This more negative assessment of Bush in relation to Iraq is also evident in the latest poll, as 40% of Americans currently say the war with Iraq has made them less confident in Bush's ability to handle the country's other big problems. Twenty-seven percent of Americans say they are now more confident in Bush, and 32% say the war made little difference in their views. These numbers are decidedly more negative than they were shortly after the major fighting ended. In a late April poll, 43% of Americans said the war made them more confident in Bush's ability to tackle the nation's other problems, and only 15% said it made them less confident.

Has the war with Iraq made you more confident in the ability of President Bush to handle the country's other big problems, less confident, or hasn't it made much of a difference?

Effect of the War on the United States

The poll suggests that Americans have mixed feelings about whether the war has had a generally positive or negative impact on the United States. Roughly equal proportions say the recent Iraq war had a positive (32%), negative (33%), or not much effect (33%) on "life in the United States generally." Shortly after the major fighting ended, a majority (52%) thought the war had a positive effect on life in the United States, and only 18% thought it had a negative effect.

Do you think that U.S. involvement in the war against Iraq has had a positive effect on life in the United States generally, a negative effect on life in the United States, or hasn't it had much effect on life in the United States generally?

By comparison, several months after the end of the Persian Gulf War, a June 1991 Los Angeles Times poll found 70% of Americans saying that the war had a positive effect on life in the United States.

One of the justifications the Bush administration gave for going to war with Iraq is that it would help make the United States safer from terrorism. In the immediate postwar period, at least a majority of Americans agreed. Now, however, the public is divided in its view, with 45% saying the war has made the United States safer from terrorism, while 43% say the war has made the country less safe.

Do you think the war with Iraq has made the U.S. safer -- or less safe -- from terrorism?

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,006 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 24-26, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

10. Has the war with Iraq made you more confident in the ability of President Bush to handle the country's other big problems, less confident, or hasn't it made much of a difference?

 

	More confident	Less confident	Not much difference	No opinion
2003 Oct 24-26	27%	40	32	1
2003 Apr 22-23	43%	15	41	1

25. Do you favor or oppose the U.S. war with Iraq?

 

		Favor	Oppose	No opinion
		%	%	%
2003 Oct 24-26		54	43	3
2003 Apr 22-23		71	26	3
2003 Apr 10 ^		72	22	6
2003 Apr 7-8		68	28	4
2003 Apr 5-6		70	27	3
2003 Mar 29-30		70	27	3
2003 Mar 24-25		71	27	2
2003 Mar 22-23		72	25	3
^	Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

26. All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, or not?

 

		Worth going to war	Not worth going to war	No opinion
		%	%	%
2003 Oct 24-26		54	44	2
2003 Oct 6-8 ^		55	44	1
2003 Sep 19-21		50	48	2
2003 Sep 8-10		58	40	2
2003 Aug 25-26		63	35	2
2003 Jul 25-27		63	34	3
2003 Jul 18-20		63	35	2
2003 Jun 27-29		56	42	2
2003 Apr 14-16 †		73	23	4
2003 Apr 9 †‡		76	19	5
2003 Apr 7-8 †		67	30	3
2003 Mar 24-25 ^ †		68	29	3
2003 Jan 3-5 ^ †		53	42	5
^	Asked of a half sample.
†	WORDING: All in all, do you think the current situation in Iraq is worth going to war over, or not?
‡	Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

Trends for Comparison:

 

		Worth going to war	Not worth going to war	No opinion
		%	%	%
1998 Feb 20-22		57	36	7
Persian Gulf War
1991 Jan 30-Feb 2 ^		71	24	5
1991 Jan 11-13 †		46	44	10
1991 Jan 3-6 †		47	44	9
1990 Dec 13-16 †		49	44	7
1990 Dec 6-9 †		47	45	8
1990 Nov 29-Dec 2 †		51	41	8
1990 Nov 15-18 †		46	45	9
1990 Sep 27-30 †		49	41	10
1990 Aug 30-Sep 2 †		45	44	11
1990 Aug 23-26 †		49	41	10
^	All in all, do you think the situation in the Middle East involving Iraq and Kuwait is worth going to war over, or not?
†	All in all, is the current situation in the Mideast worth going to war over, or not?

27. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. has handled the situation with Iraq since the major fighting ended?

 

		Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
2003 Oct 24-26		47%	50	3
2003 Apr 22-23 ^		80%	18	2
^	Based on a half sample.

28. Do you think the war with Iraq has made the U.S. safer -- or less safe -- from terrorism?

 

		Safer	Less safe	NO CHANGE (vol.)	No opinion
		%	%	%	%
2003 Oct 24-26		45	43	10	2
2003 Apr 22-23		58	33	8	1
2003 Apr 10 ^		51	37	9	3
^	Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

Q.29-30 ROTATED

29. Has the U.S. involvement in the war against Iraq had a positive or negative effect on you personally, or hasn't it had much effect on you?

 

		Positive effect	Negative effect	Not much effect	No opinion
2003 Oct 24-26		20%	25	55	*
2003 Apr 22-23 ^		37%	16	45	2
^	Based on a half sample.

Trend for Comparison: Persian Gulf War

Has the U.S. involvement in the war against Iraq had a positive, a negative effect on you personally or hasn't it had much effect on you? (Source: Los Angeles Times Poll)

 

	Positive effect	Negative effect	Not much effect	No opinion
1991 Mar 9-11	55%	11	31	3

30. Do you think that U.S. involvement in the war against Iraq has had a positive effect on life in the United States generally, a negative effect on life in the United States, or hasn't it had much effect on life in the United States generally?

 

		Positive effect	Negative effect	Not much effect	No opinion
2003 Oct 24-26		32%	33	33	2
2003 Apr 22-23 ^		52%	18	29	1
^	Based on a half sample.

Trends for Comparison: Persian Gulf War

Do you think that U.S. involvement in the war against Iraq has had a positive effect on life in the United States generally, a negative effect on life in the United States, or hasn't it had much effect on life in the United States generally? (Source: Los Angeles Times Poll)

 

	Positive effect	Negative effect	Not much effect	No opinion
1991 Jun 28-30	70%	8	18	4
1991 Mar 9-11	78%	7	10	5

31. Which comes closest to your view about what the U.S. should now do about the number of U.S. troops in Iraq – [ROTATED: the U.S. should send more troops to Iraq, the U.S. should keep the number of troops as it is now, the U.S. should begin to withdraw some troops from Iraq, (or) the U.S. should withdraw all of its troops from Iraq]?

 

	Send more troops	Keep as it is now	Withdraw some troops	Withdraw all troops	No opinion
2003 Oct 24-26	14%	27	39	18	2
2003 Aug 25-26	15%	36	32	14	3