Howard Dean Still an Unknown Quantity to Many Americans

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Questions and answers about Election 2004, now less than one year away:

1. Are the Democratic candidates becoming better known after months of intensive campaigning?

No, except for retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark. Despite a great deal of media focus on the Democratic race, including a number of nationally televised debates, most of the candidates are not better known today among members of their own party than they were back in August, just before the campaigning began in earnest.

 

Democratic Candidates' Name Identification   Based on the total percentage who give favorable or unfavorable ratings to each candidate
	National Adults		Dems./ Dem. Leaners		Difference (Nov minus Aug, among Dems.)
Candidate	Aug 03	Nov 03	Aug 03	Nov 03
	%	%
John Kerry	NA	55	56	55	–1
Joe Lieberman	NA	67	73	69	–4
John Edwards	NA	40	38	42	+4
Dick Gephardt	NA	62	64	61	–3
Howard Dean	NA	50	43	46	+3
Al Sharpton	NA	65	65	62	–3
Dennis Kucinich	NA	21	22	20	–2
Carol Moseley Braun	NA	35	35	37	+2
Wesley Clark	NA	54	42	52	+10
NA = Not asked

The table above displays a basic measure of name identification of the candidates, based on the percentage of Americans and of Democrats who know enough about each candidate to give him or her either a favorable or an unfavorable rating.

Clark's name ID has gone up by 10 percentage points since August, the most of any of the candidates, followed by slight rises of 4, 3, and 2 percentage points in the name identification of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, and former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, respectively. Slightly fewer Americans now than in August say they know enough about Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the Rev. Al Sharpton, and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich to have an opinion. However, given the margins of error of the polls, only the 10 percentage-point increase for Clark is statistically significant.

The lack of significant upward movement in the name identification of Dean is perhaps the most surprising finding here. He has been widely considered -- by pundits, columnists, and professional political observers -- to be the front-runner in the race, and he has certainly received a good proportion of the news coverage about the Democratic candidates. Still, as can be seen, only 46% of members of his own party say they know enough about Dean to give an opinion either way, slightly less than his name identification among all Americans.

It is certainly possible that some of the candidates have become better known in the states with the early primaries and caucuses, but this national survey would not necessarily reflect those changes unless they were substantial across a number of individual states. Most Democrats will not have the opportunity to actually vote for a candidate until March or later. Still, given the extraordinary visibility of the candidates in the news media, and the fact that Democrats should have some interest in whom their party ends up nominating, it is intriguing that there has been so little change in how well the candidates are known.

2. Is there a clear front-runner for the Democratic nomination nationally?

No. Five Democratic candidates are now within seven points of one another when Democrats who are registered to vote are asked whom they want to be their party's nominee next year:

 

Candidate Support for Democratic Party Nomination
BASED ON -- 404 -- DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS WHO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE
		Dean	Lie- ber- man	Clark	Gep- hardt	Ed- wards	Kerry	Mos- eley Braun	Sharp- tion	Ku- cin- ich	Gra- ham	Other
Democrats/Democratic Leaners who are Registered to Vote
2003 Nov 10-12		17	15	14	12	7	10	4	3	3	--	15
2003 Oct 24-26		16	12	15	12	6	10	4	6	1	--	18
2003 Oct 10-12		13	13	18	10	6	11	5	6	3	--	15
2003 Oct 6-8 ^		16	13	21	8	2	13	4	6	2	--	15
2003 Sep 19-21		13	10	22	11	4	11	3	4	2	4	16
2003 Sep 8-10		14	13	10	16	5	12	4	2	2	5	17
2003 Aug 25-26		12	23	2	13	5	10	5	4	1	4	21
2003 Aug 4-6		15	18	--	15	5	12	5	4	2	5	19
2003 Jul 25-27		11	21	--	16	6	15	6	5	2	4	14
2003 Jun 12-18		7	21	--	17	6	13	5	6	1	7	17
2003 May 31-Jun 1		5	20	--	14	6	17	4	7	2	4	21
2003 Apr 22-23		6	22	--	16	8	18	4	3	3	5	15
^	NOTE: Bob Graham dropped out of race on Oct. 6, his name was removed from the question for Oct. 7-8 interviewing, and in subsequent polls; "Graham" responses after Oct. 6 included in "other" category.

Dean is technically the front-runner, with 17% of the vote of registered Democrats nationally, but he is followed very closely by Lieberman at 15%, Clark at 14%, Gephardt at 12%, and Kerry at 10%. Although the relative position of these candidates has tended to shift slightly from poll to poll, the overall picture now is no clearer than it was months ago. No one candidate has broken out from the pack as the clear choice of Democrats nationally.

The relative strength of the candidates is even clearer when we take into consideration whom Democrats name as their top two choices. Lieberman, Clark, Dean, Gephardt, and Kerry all receive support from at least 20% of registered Democrats (as first or second choice), but none of the other candidates receives more than 12%.

 

First and Second Choices of Democratic Candidates Based on Democrats and Democratic leaners who are registered to vote Nov. 10-12, 2003
Joe Lieberman	28%
Wesley Clark	25
Howard Dean	24
Dick Gephardt	25
John Kerry	21
John Edwards	12
Carol Moseley Braun	9
Al Sharpton	6
Dennis Kucinich	5
Note: Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses

These results contrast with the front-runner status assigned to Dean by observers who assume that Dean's money-raising (he has raised more money than any of the other Democratic candidates), the fact that he has received the endorsements of high-profile institutional and labor groups, and his lead in the crucial early primary state of New Hampshire put him in the leadership position. Be that as it may, it is clear that Democrats nationally have not yet moved to a position where they have decided on Dean as their clear top choice, perhaps -- as noted above -- because they have yet to focus fully on the race.

3. Even if there is no clear front-runner, is there any evidence that Democrats like some of the candidates better than others?

The basic percentages of Democrats who give each candidate a favorable or an unfavorable rating are presented on the left side of the table below. Because there are varying levels of candidate recognition, the columns on the right side display the percentage of respondents who know enough about the candidate to have an opinion that rate him or her favorably or unfavorably.

All of the candidates, with the exception of Sharpton, have a more favorable than unfavorable image among Democrats across the country. Clark, Kerry, Dean, Edwards, and Lieberman all have favorable percentages of 70% or more (based on a base of those who know the candidates well enough to have an opinion about them). Of the leading contenders, Gephardt is viewed least favorably among Democrats; still, nearly 7 in 10 have a positive impression of the Missouri congressman.

 

Basic Favorability and Revised Favorability
Democrats and Democratic Leaners
	Basic Favorability			Revised Favorability
Candidate	Favorable	Unfavorable	DK	Favorable	Unfavorable
	%	%	%	%	%
John Kerry	44	11	45	80	20
Joe Lieberman	50	19	31	72	28
John Edwards	32	10	58	76	24
Dick Gephardt	42	19	39	69	31
Howard Dean	36	10	54	78	22
Al Sharpton	24	38	38	39	61
Dennis Kucinich	11	9	80	55	45
Carol Moseley Braun	24	13	53	65	35
Wesley Clark	42	10	48	81	19
DK = Don't know

Dean has been profiled in several publications recently (most recently in USA Today in a cover story on Wednesday, Nov. 12) as having a "prickly" personality. But his three-to-one favorable to unfavorable image among Democrats is right in line with the other candidates.

What about the images of the Democratic candidates among the general American population -- something that will be of great importance once the general election campaign begins?

Several of the candidates, including in particular Clark, have a more positive image among the general American population than the others do.

 

Favorability Ratings of Candidates Among All Americans
	Basic Favorability			Revised Favorability
Candidate	Favor- able	Unfavor- able	DK	Revised Favor- able	Revised Unfavor- able	Difference (Revised Favor. minus Revised Unfavor.)
	%	%	%	%	%	%
John Kerry	31	24	26	56	44	+12
Joe Lieberman	39	28	15	58	42	+16
John Edwards	22	18	37	55	45	+10
Dick Gephardt	32	30	21	52	48	+4
Howard Dean	26	24	33	52	48	+4
Al Sharpton	16	49	24	25	75	-50
Dennis Kucinich	7	14	63	33	67	-34
Carol Moseley Braun	15	20	48	43	57	-14
Wesley Clark	34	20	28	63	37	+26
DK = Don't know

As can be seen from the right-hand columns above, Clark clearly has the most favorable image of any of the candidates, with a net positive of 26 percentage points among the group of Americans who know enough about him to give an opinion. Clark is followed by Lieberman, Kerry, and Edwards, with net favorables in the +10 to +16 range, and then Gephardt and Dean. The remaining three candidates have net unfavorable images, with Sharpton in possession of the most negative image of all.

4. How are the Democratic candidates stacking up against George W. Bush?

In hypothetical trial heats, Republican President George W. Bush beats all of the Democratic candidates -- but by varying margins.

 

Bush Versus Democratic Candidates "If the election were held today" Registered Voters
	Bush		Demo- cratic Candi- date	Bush Advantage (in pct. pts.)
	%		%
Bush	50	Wesley Clark	47	3
Bush	53	Howard Dean	44	9
Bush	52	Dick Gephardt	46	6
Bush	52	John Kerry	46	6
Bush	52	Joe Lieberman	46	6

Clark does best of the five leading Democrats; Bush beats Clark by only three percentage points among registered voters nationwide. Dean does the worst; Bush beats him by nine percentage points.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,004 adults, 18 years and older, conducted Nov. 10-12, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 404 Democrats and Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.