Bush and Great Britain
President George W. Bush arrives in Great Britain today for a four-day visit that will reunite him with Prime Minister Tony Blair, one of Bush's staunchest supporters in the war against Iraq.
Both Bush's and Blair's job approval ratings have fallen as the war has dragged on. The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, completed over the weekend (Nov. 14-16), gives Bush a 50% job approval rating -- the lowest of his administration so far, although his approval rating did fall to 50% once before in September 2003. Polls in Great Britain put Blair's approval rating as low as 33%.
On the other hand, Blair does quite well here in the United States. He received a 76% favorable rating in our weekend poll -- one of the most positive ratings Blair has received across six polls going back to December 1998. In other words, Blair is better liked here in the United States than Bush, at least for the moment.
Similarly, Americans are quite positive about the Queen of England. Seventy-seven percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of Queen Elizabeth II, who has appeared on Gallup's "Top Ten Most Admired Women" list more often than any other woman has over the last 55 years.
It's a different story when it comes to Prince Charles, who has been beset by rumors in the rabid British tabloids. Only 45% of Americans have a favorable opinion of the heir to the British throne -- down from the 53% in May 2002, but not as low as the 29% favorable rating he received September 1997. Forty-four percent of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Prince Charles.
Bush's Image
Here at home, President Bush's image ratings have dropped on several key dimensions tested in Gallup's weekend poll. For the first time in his administration, less than half of Americans (49%) say that Bush "cares about the needs of people" like them. Just 42% say that Bush is in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives. (This is the first time we have tested this dimension.) The percentage of Americans saying Bush is honest and trustworthy is somewhat higher, at 59%, but this is actually the lowest rating Bush has received on this dimension, down six points from June.
Two-thirds of Americans (66%) say that Bush is a strong and decisive leader, and while this is the lowest since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, it's still higher than we measured in the first months of the nascent Bush administration, earlier in 2001. Two-thirds of Americans (68%) also approve of Bush as a person. It's interesting to note that while only 20% of Democrats approve of the job Bush is doing as president, 46% approve of him as a person.
Most economic indicators are on the upswing, which should benefit Bush in his re-election bid next year. But the latest poll shows that only half of Americans think Bush can get the economy moving, while just as many say he can't.
2004 Election
Who will Bush face in the presidential election next year? At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we can only say that based on our latest polling of U.S. Democrats, there is still no national front-runner for the Democratic nomination.
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark both receive 17% support from Democrats nationally who are registered to vote. Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman and Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt are only slightly behind with 13% each.
These numbers show no significant change from previous polls. Additionally, the weekend poll shows that 68% of Democrats who expressed a candidate preference say they might change their minds, suggesting that the race is still extremely fluid. Dean remains comfortably in the lead in New Hampshire according to all recent polls, and for this reason (as well as his tremendous success with fundraising), he is considered the Democratic front-runner. However, we have yet to pick up any signs of a national Dean bandwagon.
Americans continue to say that the economy will be more important than Iraq in determining their vote for president next year. Last week's Gallup Poll (Nov. 10-12) asked Americans to tell us in their own words, "What will be the most important issues that you will take into account when deciding whom to vote for?" Twenty-nine percent of Americans said the economy, followed by 22% who said war issues and Iraq. All other issues -- including foreign affairs, homeland security, healthcare, and education -- were mentioned by less than 10% of respondents as their top priority in next year's voting.
There's little significant difference between the priorities of Republicans and Democrats. The economy and Iraq are at the top of the list for both groups.
Governor Schwarzenegger
Arnold Schwarzenegger was sworn in Monday as the new governor of California, marking the end of one of the most fascinating sagas in recent American political history.
There has been no shortage of commentary on the meaning of the gubernatorial recall in California, but I think it's clear that, if nothing else, the recall symbolized the fact that Americans often feel profoundly distanced from their elected representatives. Voters in that state were apparently fed up with an incumbent governor whom they considered to be out of touch with the people, and took the opportunity to show that dissatisfaction by voting him out of office.
There was also a great hue and cry about presumed negative implications of the recall. But despite the concerns about what the recall might mean for the political process in the country, there is no gainsaying the fact that many Californians simply weren't satisfied with the way their representative government was working. The governor thrown out of office by the recall, Gray Davis, eventually came to agree with this sentiment. Davis told a New York Times reporter last week: "I didn't stay in touch with the people. That's clearly my biggest regret. Voters are the source of all wisdom. You have to conduct an ongoing dialogue with them."
Most Americans (62%) are confident that Schwarzenegger, despite his lack of political experience, will be successful in his new role as governor of California.
Political Commentators
Conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh returned to the air Monday, after five weeks of drug rehab. Limbaugh found himself the subject of tabloid cover stories last month, alleging his involvement in purchasing illegal prescription drugs to fuel his drug habit. Limbaugh admitted he was addicted; hence the rehab.
One thing is clear from our recent Gallup Poll that asked about Limbaugh; he's a very well-known personality. We tested his image (along with several other talk show personalities) and found that only 9% of Americans have never heard of Limbaugh, while another 6% don't know enough about him to have an opinion. The 85% of Americans who do have an opinion break decidedly toward the negative side, with 51% giving him an unfavorable rating and 34% giving him a favorable rating.
It comes as no great shock to find that Limbaugh's image is highly differentiated by a respondent's party affiliation -- 60% of Republicans have a favorable opinion, compared to 33% of independents and only 10% of Democrats. Limbaugh's appeal to the GOP is not universal, however; 29% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Despite all of his woes (which include resigning from his job as an ESPN NFL football commentator just before his drug problems became public), Limbaugh can perhaps take solace in the fact that he is better known than his nemesis, liberal author and actor Al Franken (author of "Rush Limbaugh Is a Big Fat Idiot"). Sixty-two percent of Americans have no opinion of Franken. Among those who do know him, Franken's image is a little more negative (22%) than positive (16%), and Democrats (24%) are about twice as likely as Republicans (11%) to have a favorable opinion of him. It's been reported that Franken may consider a run for the Senate in his native Minnesota in 2008, against Republican incumbent Norm Coleman.
Flamboyant pundit Ann Coulter, author of the best-selling books "Slander" and "Treason," is not as well known as either Franken or Limbaugh. Only 21% know enough about Coulter to have an opinion of her, and those opinions are equally split between favorable (11%) and unfavorable (10%) camps.
John Muhammad
On Monday, a Virginia Beach, Va., jury found John Allen Muhammad guilty of capital murder and three other charges in the "sniper" shootings, which terrorized the Washington D.C., area in the fall of 2002. The jury is now considering whether to recommend the death penalty for Muhammad. The latest Gallup polling suggests that the majority of Americans are generally comfortable with the use of the death penalty. In an October Gallup Poll, 64% said they favor the death penalty in cases of murder. And in a May Gallup Poll, a slight majority of Americans (53%) said they would choose the death penalty over life in prison with no chance of parole as a punishment for murder.
Prescription Drugs
Will Congress pass a new Medicare bill expanding prescription drug coverage before its planned adjournment at the end of this week? The answer is unclear at this point; most reports suggest that Republicans and Democrats are miles away from any sort of agreement on the details of such a reform package.
Forty percent of Americans say they would be angry if Congress adjourns and does not pass a prescription drug plan, while another 39% would be upset -- a finding that should give Congress pause for thought. If a drug plan is not passed, those who say they would be angry or upset are most likely to blame the Republicans over the Democrats, by a 43% to 23% margin. This finding is not surprising, given that the GOP controls both houses of Congress.
Steroids
Major league baseball says that 5% of its players have tested positive for steroids. Our weekend poll shows that at least some baseball fans think that estimate is low. While 63% of baseball fans say that less than half of players use steroids, 33% say that half or more use them. This is roughly the same estimate that fans made in June 2002.