The Public Opinion Setting for Bush's State of the Union Address

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- President Bush delivers his annual State of the Union address in the House of Representatives tonight, an event that will temporarily turn attention back to the presidency at a time in which the fight for the Democratic nomination has been occupying much of the media's attention.

By all accounts, Bush's speech tonight will present a generally upbeat portrait of the nation, calling attention to the improved economy, repeating his rationale for U.S. involvement in Iraq, and re-emphasizing the importance of a number of initiatives dealing with immigration, space, and healthcare.

Here's a primer on what the latest Gallup Polls suggest is the state of the nation as Bush makes his speech.

The people's broad take on the state of the union

Americans are less positive about the state of the union now than they were as recently as two weeks ago. Gallup's latest measure of overall satisfaction, from a Jan. 12-15 survey, shows that 46% of Americans say they are satisfied, compared to 55% in the Jan. 2-5 poll, and 50% in mid-December.

The 46% figure is still slightly higher than was the case as Bush delivered his State of the Union speech last year at this time, and is much higher than the satisfaction level in January 1996 and January 1992, when Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush, respectively, made State of the Union addresses in the year in which each sought re-election to a second term.

When asked about their satisfaction with 21 different elements of life in the United States today, Americans appear to be most satisfied with the nation's military strength, security from terrorism, and the position of women in the nation, while they are least satisfied with the level of poverty, the availability of affordable healthcare, immigration, campaign finance laws, and the Social Security and Medicare systems.

Advance indications are that Bush will address several of the issues at the bottom of the list below (those about which Americans are least satisfied) in his speech.

SUMMARY TABLE: SATISFACTION WITH THE STATE OF THE NATION

 

The American public responds as follows when asked to name the most important problem facing the country today.

 

This list of the top problems as perceived by the American public can serve as an outline of sorts to Bush's speech; there is little doubt that he will address each of these issues in one way or another in the address.

Bush's job approval ratings

Bush's job approval has dropped back to 53% in Gallup's latest survey, not quite as low as the 50% job approval rating reported by a new CBS News/New York Times poll, but still representing a drop of 10 percentage points over the course of the last month. Bush's job approval rating had risen to 63% in Gallup's Dec. 15-16 poll, no doubt reflecting in large part a positive reaction to news of the capture of Saddam Hussein by U.S. forces in Iraq. Part of the current decline in Bush's ratings may also be a result of the intensive criticisms heaped on Bush by the Democratic candidates for their party's presidential nomination.

The economy

There is little doubt that Bush will spend a good deal of time tonight in his speech extolling the virtues of the newly invigorated U.S. economy, pointing to a number of recent indicators of economic progress, including GDP growth and the rise in the Dow.

Americans in general are now significantly more positive about the economy than they were last year at this time, but the most recent Gallup Poll shows a pull back from the general upward trend in these consumer measures over the last several months.

The biggest change has come in the public's view of the direction of the economy. In early January, 66% were convinced that the economy was getting better. Now, in the Jan. 12-15 poll, that number has fallen back to just 53%. That's still a much more optimistic result than we measured as Bush made his State of the Union address last January, when just 34% thought the economy was getting better, but certainly presents a less positive environment for Bush's speech tonight than he might optimally desire.

There has been less change in the public's perception of the current U.S. economy, which is not surprising given the historical fact that this measure is slower to move either up or down than is the measure of the direction of the economy discussed above. Thirty-seven percent of Americans currently rate the economy as excellent or good, compared to a slightly higher 43% in early January. Last year at this time, 22% rated the economy as excellent or good.

Terrorism

Bush's approach to the terrorist threat facing the country is one of his administration's strengths, and terrorism is highly likely to be the first topic he discusses in tonight's speech, both as an issue in and of itself, and also as a basic rationale for the war in Iraq. Bush gets his highest job approval ratings on his handling of terrorism, and most Gallup indicators suggest that Americans are less worried about personally being the victim of terrorism now than they have been at previous times going back to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Just 10% of Americans now say that terrorism is the nation's top problem.

A recent Gallup Poll also showed that Americans are strongly likely to believe that the Republican Party can do a better job than the Democratic Party in handling terrorism. Three-quarters of Americans believe that Bush's policies since Sept. 11, 2001 have addressed the fundamental security risks that existed before Sept. 11.

The situation in Iraq

Criticisms of the president's determination to get the United States involved militarily in Iraq, and the fact that over 500 U.S. soldiers have died in the 10 months since military action in Iraq began last March, have become a major focus of the campaigns of most of the Democratic candidates for president. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in particular has made the criticism of U.S. military involvement in Iraq the centerpiece of his campaign for his party's nomination, and most of the other candidates have attempted to one-up each other in arguing to voters that they are just as opposed to the war as Dean is.

Indeed, the war in Iraq has in many ways become the centerpiece of the Bush presidency over the last year, the focal point that helps define Americans' overall views of the administration.

There is little question that Bush will discuss Iraq in his speech tonight, and all indications are that he will reinforce to the nation his view of the validity of his decision to go to war there, as well as tying that effort into a more general war on terrorism around the world.

At this point, all Gallup indicators suggest that Bush continues to enjoy majority support for the nation's involvement in Iraq. Less than half of Americans -- 42% -- say that the U.S. involvement in Iraq was a mistake, and according to a Gallup Poll conducted Jan. 9-11 59% say that military involvement in Iraq has been "worth it." It's important to note, however, that the "worth it" number reached as low as 50% last September, suggesting the potential for it to drop again in the weeks to come.

New space initiative

President Bush jumped the gun and made the announcement last week of his proposal that the United States invest billions in sending humans back to the moon, and from there to Mars in the decades ahead. Still, it is likely that he will at least touch on the concept again in tonight's speech.

Most polling shows that a majority of Americans are generally supportive of the concept of sending men and women back into space, but that the people balk when they are confronted with a reminder of the costs involved.

Interestingly, this is similar to the reaction from Americans to the proposal by President John F. Kennedy in 1961 that the United States send a man to the moon by the end of that decade (which of course, the nation did). The public supported the idea in concept, but polling suggested even then that Americans reacted negatively to the idea when reminded of the specific costs involved.

Healthcare costs

There are some indications that Bush may suggest new initiatives to reduce healthcare costs in tonight's speech, including a possible announcement of increased Medicare payments to private health insurance plans. Any such proposal in general will be met with deeply attentive reactions from his audience, given the fact that healthcare costs continue to be a major concern for the average American.

Indeed, only 27% of Americans say they are satisfied with the "availability of affordable healthcare" at this time, while 71% are dissatisfied, including 45% who are very dissatisfied. That gives healthcare one of the lowest satisfaction ratings of any of 21 different aspects of American life tested in the Jan. 12-15 Gallup Poll.

Social Security

There are some indications that President Bush may revisit his proposal to allow Americans to put a portion of their Social Security funds into a personal retirement plan. This concept has generally met with majority approval on each of the 10 occasions on which Gallup has measured it.

Gallup Poll data from our Jan. 12-15 survey show the degree to which Americans are concerned about Social Security more generally. Only 31% are satisfied with Social Security and Medicare, while 65% are dissatisfied.

A proposal has been made that would allow people to put a portion of their Social Security payroll taxes into personal retirement accounts that would be invested in private stocks and bonds. Do you favor or oppose this proposal?

 

		Favor	Oppose	No opinion
		%	%	%
2003 Oct 24-26		62	34	4
2002 Nov 8-10		57	40	3
2002 Sep 20-22		52	43	5
2002 Jun 28-30		57	39	4
2002 Apr 8-11		63	33	4
2002 Jan 25-27		63	33	4
2001 Nov 26-27 ^		64	31	5
2001 Aug 24-26		62	34	4
2001 Mar 26-28 ^		63	30	7
2000 Jun 6-7 ^		65	30	5
^	Asked of half sample.

Immigration reform

Bush has already announced a sweeping new reform of the way in which illegal aliens are treated in this country, proposing that illegals be allowed to stay in the United States legally if they are taking jobs that Americans don't want.

Most polling shows that this concept has not at all been favorably received by the American public, and it is therefore possible that Bush and his advisors may downplay it in his speech tonight.

Indeed, one problem is the current climate of attitudes toward immigration. Americans are more likely to believe that immigration levels should be decreased than they were in the boom times of a few years ago, and most Americans are convinced that immigration drives down wages for American workers by the immigrants' willingness to work for less. There is relatively little support for the concept of making it easier for illegal aliens to become citizens, and when asked about the Bush plan specifically, a majority of Americans say they oppose it.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,004 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 12-15, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.