On First Anniversary, Americans Divided on Impact of Iraq War

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A year after the United States launched the war against Iraq, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey finds Americans divided on the war's impact. While a small majority says the war was worth it and that things are going at least moderately well for the United States in Iraq, the public is evenly divided as to whether the war has made the United States safer. Americans are also evenly split as to what will happen when the United States eventually pulls its troops out of Iraq -- about half say chaos will result, the other half expect a stable government to be established. All of these views are highly correlated with people's party affiliations: Republicans are very strongly positive, Democrats very strongly negative, and independents about evenly divided.

The poll, conducted March 5-7, shows 55% of Americans saying the war was worth it, while 43% disagree. This response is more positive than what Gallup measured at the end of January, when the public was evenly divided, with 49% taking each position. That poll took place immediately after the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, when Democrats received much media attention as they campaigned against each other and also criticized Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq.

Worth Going to War in Iraq?

Opinion on this matter has varied considerably over the past year. In the immediate wake of the war's launch, Americans said the war was worth it by more than a 2-to-1 margin (68% to 29%). Positive feelings reached their peak after the major fighting ended and Saddam Hussein's regime toppled. But by last fall, amid reports of armed resistance from guerrilla forces, positive feelings about the war declined. Support for the war increased throughout the fall and particularly after Hussein was captured, but support then fell as the capture faded from media attention and Democrats' criticisms moved to the forefront of the news.

A similar pattern appears in how Americans assess the conduct of operations in Iraq. Initially, in April and early May of last year, more than 8 in 10 Americans said things were going well (either "very" or "moderately"). But by the fall of last year, opinion was more divided -- with more people saying things were going badly than going well.

How Well Are Things Going for the United States in Iraq?

The last previous Gallup reading on how things are going was taken in November, before Bush visited the troops in Iraq and before Hussein was captured. At that time, 61% of Americans said things were going badly, while just 38% said things were going well.

Despite the slight majorities who currently say the war was worth it and that things are going well in Iraq, the public is evenly divided on whether the war has made the United States safer from terrorism, one of the major rationales for the war advanced by the Bush administration. Just half of Americans say yes, while 37% say the war made it less safe for the country, and 10% say the war has had no effect on U.S. safety.

Has War With Iraq Made the U.S. Safer or Less Safe From Terrorism?

After the war began, 58% of Americans said the action made the United States safer, but by last fall, the public was about evenly split. After Hussein's capture, positive feelings increased, but now once again Americans are evenly divided.

The current poll also shows that Americans are closely divided on what will happen when U.S. troops leave Iraq. Almost half, 48%, expect the situation will turn into chaos and civil war, while 45% expect the Iraqi people will be able to establish a stable government.

Just your best guess, which do you think is more likely to happen in Iraq when the U.S. troops leave there – [ROTATED: the situation in Iraq will turn into chaos and civil war, (or) the Iraqi people will be able to establish a stable government]?

Partisan Issue

The Iraq war is so closely associated with the Bush administration that public opinion is highly correlated with people's party identifications.

Worth Going to War?

Republicans overwhelmingly say the war was worth it (90% to 8%), while Democrats disagree by nearly a 3-to-1 margin (72% not worth it, 25% worth it).

Worth Going to War in Iraq? by Party

How Well Things Are Going

By a 6-to-1 margin, Republicans say things are going well (86% to 14%). By almost a 3-to-1 margin, Democrats say things are going badly (72% to 26%).

How Well Are Things Going for the United States in Iraq? by Party

Is the United States Safer?

Only Republicans show a majority saying the United States is safer, but they do so by an overwhelming margin: 83% say safer, while 10% say less safe and 5% say no change.

Majorities of independents and Democrats, however, do not agree that the country is safer. In fact, most Democrats (60%) say it is less safe, and another 13% say the war had no effect either way.

Has War With Iraq Made the U.S. Safer or Less Safe From Terrorism? by Party

What Will Happen When U.S. Troops Leave?

The question of what will happen in Iraq when U.S. troops leave elicits almost a perfectly mirrored response from Republicans and Democrats. By a 2-to-1 margin, Republicans expect Iraqis to establish a stable government; by virtually the same margin, Democrats expect the situation to turn into chaos and civil war.

Which Is More Likely to Happen in Iraq When the U.S. Troops Leave?

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,005 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 5-7, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Now, we'd like to ask you some questions about Iraq. First,

28. All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not?

Trends for Comparison:

29. In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq—[ROTATED: very well, moderately well, moderately badly, (or) very badly]?

30. Do you think the war with Iraq has made the U.S. safer -- or less safe -- from terrorism?

31. Just your best guess, which do you think is more likely to happen in Iraq when the U.S. troops leave there – [ROTATED: the situation in Iraq will turn into chaos and civil war, (or) the Iraqi people will be able to establish a stable government]?