Election
This year's presidential election campaign will shortly be moving into its next distinctive phase -- the pre-convention summer months. This period will be followed by four remaining campaign phases: 1) the convention period (late July through early September), 2) the pre-debate fall campaign, 3) the debate phase (late September through Oct. 13), and 4) the final push to Nov. 2.
Typically, not much goes on during the summer pre-convention months of an election year. This year could be different. Presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry's campaign continues to hold out the possibility of an early announcement of Kerry's vice presidential nomination, thus gaining valuable publicity ahead of the guaranteed focus Kerry will gain during the Boston convention.
But it's almost inevitable that George W. Bush will continue to occupy the significant majority of media space between now and the Democratic convention, no matter what Kerry does. The main reason is the run-up to the planned June 30 handover of power in Iraq to some form of Iraqi "entity." CNN is already hyping the transfer of power by billboarding its news coverage with the slogan, "Countdown to Handover."
Bush and Iraq
Mindful of the necessity to keep at the center of the news media's agenda, and to counter the continual tide of negative news from Iraq in recent weeks, the Bush White House has announced that the president will make one major Iraq-focused speech each week from now until June 30. The first of these came Monday night at the Army War College in Carlisle, Pa.
There's ample evidence in Gallup's May 21-23 poll to suggest that Bush's strategy to present an optimistic explanation of what is happening in Iraq is necessary. Public opinion of both Bush and the war in Iraq has clearly been on a downward trajectory in recent months, although the poll shows that the negative tide has stabilized at least for the moment.
Bush's overall job approval rating is now 47%, virtually unchanged from two weeks ago and still below the important 50% level. Bush and Kerry remain neck and neck in the trial heat. A majority of Americans -- 52% -- say that the war in Iraq has not been worth it. Only 49% of Americans now consider the current war to be "just," compared with 66% of those who said that the 1991 Persian Gulf War was just, and an overwhelming 90% who felt that World War II was just. (This comparison is particularly salient in light of the approach of Memorial Day next weekend and the 60th anniversary of D-Day the week after.)
More generally, all of the data I've reviewed on public opinion and Iraq reflect two underlying conclusions. First, the American people continue to believe that ousting Saddam Hussein was a good thing in principle, and that the Iraqi people are better off now than they were before the invasion took place. (In Gallup's May 21-23 poll, 72% of Americans said that Iraq was better off than before the U.S. and British invasion.) But second, Americans also have serious doubts that benefits of achieving this outcome have been worth the costs. As noted above, less than half of Americans believe that the war in Iraq is worth it, and only 42% of Americans buy the Bush administration's argument that the war in Iraq has made the world safer from terrorism.
Plus, some Americans are now blaming the increasing price of gas on the Iraq war. About one in five Americans (19%) -- when asked to indicate why they think gas prices have shot up -- say that it is a direct result of the Iraq war. That's just less than the percentage of Americans who say the price of gas has gone up because of oil companies' greed for profits (22%). This second explanation isn't totally good news for the Bush administration either, since Bush has a background in the oil and gas industry, and Vice President Dick Cheney was formerly the president of Halliburton, a firm with a major involvement in the oil services industry.
Certainly, media pictures of happy Iraqis eagerly embracing democratic self-rule after June 30 would go a long way toward assuaging the public's concerns about the war. But it is not at all clear at this point that the public will end up seeing such pictures.
Polarization?
Reporters often ask me about the alleged "polarization" of America today. Some observers have argued that Americans have ossified into hardcore positions on either end of the political spectrum more quickly this year than in past election years, leaving only a fairly small segment of the public open to the possibility of switching their votes in either direction.
We know there is a larger gap than usual between Republicans and Democrats' approval of the job Bush is doing: According to the May 21-23 Gallup Poll, 89% of Republicans approve of the job Bush is doing, compared with 12% of Democrats.
Additionally, the May 21-23 poll shows that the large majority of likely voters already claim that their minds are made up about the candidates. Forty-two percent of likely voters say they are certain they will vote for Kerry. Forty percent say they are certain they will vote for Bush. That leaves only 18% of likely voters who can be considered "swing" voters, in the sense that they could change their minds or don't have any preference at all at this point. (Seven percent of likely voters say they are leaning toward Kerry but might change their minds, 7% are leaning toward Bush but could change their minds, and 4% claim to have no opinion at this point.) Historical analysis suggests that these figures are not out of line with what Gallup has found in previous elections.
At the same time, a somewhat higher percentage of Americans appear to have less-than-rigid opinions about Bush when asked to rate the job he is doing as president.
Twenty-eight percent strongly approve, while 37% strongly disapprove -- leaving 35% who don't feel strongly about Bush's job performance either way. (Interestingly, 72% of Republicans who approve of Bush's job performance feel strongly about it, compared with 80% of Democrats who disapprove of Bush's job performance and feel strongly about it.) The mixed nature of the Bush approval numbers is important, given the fact that to a large degree, this year's election is a referendum on Bush's performance as president so far.
Gay Marriage
What will be the political impact of gay and lesbian marriages, which became legal in Massachusetts last week?
Our data continue to show that a majority of Americans oppose the concept of legalized same-sex marriage. In addition, 54% think that homosexuality in general is morally wrong -- a percentage that has stayed remarkably constant over the past four years.
But moral opposition is different than political action. Only 16% of registered voters feel so strongly about same-sex marriage that they would only vote for a candidate who shares their beliefs, although another 47% of Americans say that a candidate's views on same-sex marriage will be one of many important factors they take into account when deciding whom to vote for.
It is probably reasonable to conclude that most of those who feel strongly about same-sex marriage on both ends of the spectrum are already strong partisans; i.e., that they are hardcore Republicans or Democrats who are unlikely to change their minds between now and the election. Analysis does show that Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say that gay marriage will be critical to their vote. This suggests that if it has any effect, the focus on gay marriage in Massachusetts could play to Bush's favor by activating his supporters.
Still, almost no Americans feel that same-sex marriage is one of the most important problems facing the country today, and when voters are presented with a list of newsworthy issues and asked how important each one will be to their vote for president, gay marriage ranks hear the bottom. Thus, I think it is reasonable to assume at this point that the highly publicized gay and lesbian marriages taking place in Massachusetts will not have a major impact on the presidential race either way.
The Economy
I am frequently asked by reporters why Bush isn't getting more credit for the improvement in the economy. There are no doubt a number of reasons, not the least of which are 1) the souring views on what is happening in Iraq, and 2) the fact that the creation of new jobs -- as illustrated by government statistics -- has yet to become a reality for many Americans.
But I think a good part of Americans' hesitance to credit Bush for improving the economy may stem from something new: a concern about inflation.
A May 2-4 Gallup Poll shows that a full 73% of Americans think that interest rates will go up over the next six months. That's the highest number since the fall of 2001 when we began tracking this measure. It's also up very significantly from last month and earlier this year.
Perhaps more ominously, 67% of Americans think that inflation is going to go up over the next six months. That, too, is a very dramatic increase from April, when 59% said that inflation would increase. Again, that's the highest percentage predicting that inflation will go up since we have tracked this measure.
There are a number of reasons why these beliefs about inflation translate into personal economic angst. About half of Americans who have credit cards say they sometimes carry a balance on those cards, and interest rates certainly affect how much they pay for the luxury of getting the float on their money. Many Americans have benefited from low mortgage rates, either by refinancing or taking out home equity lines of credit.
And, of course, there is no getting around the fact that gas prices seem to increase each time we drive by the gas station, and are now at record levels well over $2 a gallon in most parts of the country.