Latest Showdown State Poll Results

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- CNN/USA Today/Gallup's three latest "showdown states" polls show mixed results in three key Midwestern states -- President George W. Bush has a lead in Wisconsin, Democratic candidate John Kerry leads in Michigan, and the race in Minnesota is a statistical dead heat. If Bush is able to maintain his lead in Wisconsin, he will pick up a state that Al Gore won in the 2000 election.

Following are the details of the most recent showdown state polls.

In Michigan, the Sept. 10-13 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds Kerry leading Bush by a 50% to 44% margin among likely voters. Ralph Nader, who recently gained ballot access as an independent candidate in that state, has just 1% of the vote. The results are quite similar among registered voters, with Kerry at 50%, Bush 43%, and Nader at 1%.

In Minnesota, the Sept. 11-14 poll finds that both Kerry and Bush have 45% of likely voters' support, while Nader has 5%. The numbers are also similar among registered voters -- 44% for Kerry, 44% for Bush, and 6% for Nader.

In the Sept. 9-12 Wisconsin poll, Bush leads Kerry by 8 points among likely voters, 52% to 44%, with Nader getting 1% of the vote. The registered voter numbers suggest a slightly closer race, with Bush having a 49% to 45% advantage.

Gallup polled in Wisconsin prior to the Republican convention, and the latest numbers represent an improvement for Bush. In contrast to his 8-point lead in that state today, the Aug. 23-26 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll in Wisconsin showed Bush with a slight 48% to 45% edge over Kerry among likely voters, while Kerry had a slight 47% to 45% advantage over Bush among registered voters.

That movement toward Bush in Wisconsin is consistent with what Gallup has found in its recent polling in other showdown states. Polls in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Missouri all showed movement in Bush's favor when compared with polls conducted in those states prior to the Republican convention. Future polling in those states will answer the question of whether that movement was a temporary bounce or a more lasting shift in voter sentiment.

Gallup's national polling also shows Bush with a slightly larger lead after the convention than before it.

Changes from 2000

The showdown state polls provide key insights into how the Electoral College vote may go on Election Day. If each state awards its electoral votes to the same candidate it did in 2000, Bush would win the Electoral College vote by 278 to 260. Bush won the 2000 electoral vote by a 271 to 266 margin, but reapportionment of Electoral College votes based on the 2000 census resulted in a net gain of 7 electoral votes for "Bush states." In 2000, if a small state such as New Hampshire gave its four electoral votes to Gore rather than Bush, Gore would have won. Now, Kerry needs to win all the states Gore won in 2000 plus at least one additional large state (such as Ohio or Florida) that Bush won, or win all the Gore states plus two or three smaller Bush states (such as New Hampshire, Nevada, Arkansas, and West Virginia) to overcome that deficit.

The newest showdown state poll results, plus those from last week's polling, suggest that three states that Kerry needs to win could shift to Bush. These include Minnesota and Pennsylvania, both of which would be too close to call if the election were held today, and Wisconsin, which would probably shift its 10 electoral votes to Bush if the election were held today. Kerry would hold on to Washington and Michigan, while Bush would retain Ohio and Missouri.

Of course, much is likely to change between now and Election Day. The proposed debates present critical opportunities for both candidates to increase their public support. And in their normal campaigning over the next six weeks, the candidates have an opportunity to make their case to the voters. Most of those efforts will be focused on the showdown states, and CNN, USA Today, and Gallup will continue to monitor how the campaign is playing out in these key states.

 

Survey Methods

Results for Wisconsin are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 716 registered voters and 631 likely voters, aged 18 years and older, conducted Sept. 9-12, 2004. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Results for Michigan are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 829 registered voters and 673 likely voters, aged 18 years and older, conducted Sept. 10-13, 2004. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Results for Minnesota are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 764 registered voters and 675 likely voters, aged 18 years and older, conducted Sept. 11-14, 2004. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

WISCONSIN

4. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, (or) Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates]?

4A. As of today, do you lean more toward – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans (or) Nader and Camejo, the independents]?

2. (Asked of Nader voters) If Ralph Nader is not on the ballot in your state on Election Day, would you vote for – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?

2A. As of today, do you lean more toward – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?

            Re-calculated two-candidate race: (Q.2/2a/4/4a)

MICHIGAN

4. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, (or) Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates]?

4A. As of today, do you lean more toward – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans (or) Nader and Camejo, the independents]?

 

MINNESOTA

2. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for – [ROTATED: John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats (or) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans]?

2A. As of today, do you lean more toward – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?

4. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, (or) Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates]?

4A. As of today, do you lean more toward – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans (or) Nader and Camejo, the independents]?