The first presidential debate is over. What's the status of the race?
Sen. John Kerry and President George W. Bush are tied at 49% apiece among likely voters in the Oct. 1-3 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Bush has a two-point lead among registered voters, well within the survey's margin of error.
So it appeared that the first debate had an impact on public opinion?
Yes. There is little question that the debate, at least for the moment, caused a change in the public's perceptions. In a close election, movement in the thinking of a relatively small percentage of the voters can significantly change the structure of a race. In the current instance, Gallup found that support for Bush dropped three percentage points after the debate (from 52% to 49%) and Kerry gained five percentage points (from 44% to 49%). That's not a lot of change, but enough to transform the situation from one in which Bush is ahead to one in which the two candidates are tied.
As for the debate itself, it's clear that a very large percentage of the voting population watched it. Nielsen ratings estimate that the viewership was much higher than that for the first Bush-Gore debate in 2000.
Our weekend poll shows that more than 7 in 10 Americans (71%) say they watched the debate, and another 13% say they heard or read news reports about it. In other words, the majority of American adults were directly affected by the debate. Republicans and Democrats were about equally likely to report watching the debate.
Why has Kerry apparently benefited from the debate?
One explanation that comes through loud and clear in the data is the fact that Kerry is perceived as the better communicator. Immediately after the debate, Gallup asked which candidate "expressed himself more clearly" and found that debate watchers picked Kerry over Bush by 60% to 32%.
Over the weekend, we asked the same question, but this time without specific reference to the debate. Fifty-four percent of Americans say that in general, Kerry expresses himself more clearly, compared with 41% who choose Bush. Kerry also beats Bush on the dimension "is intelligent," by a 48% to 38% margin. That finding could also be fallout from the debate.
Bush spent a good deal of time during the debate criticizing Kerry as a "flip-flopper" -- indecisive and likely to change his mind. Has this label stuck?
Apparently it has, although the perception of Kerry as a man who frequently changes his mind on policy issues is not new.
We've asked Americans twice if Kerry "has -- or has not -- changed his positions on issues for political reasons." The first time Gallup asked the question in March 2004, 57% agreed, while only 29% disagreed (12% were unsure).
Now, the Oct. 1-3 Gallup Poll shows that 65% of Americans say Kerry has changed his position on issues for political reasons, while 29% say he has not.
We also asked this same question about Bush in the Oct. 1-3 survey. The question remains a significant differentiator between the two candidates; only 36% of Americans say that Bush has changed his position for political reasons, while 60% say he has not.
There are two more presidential debates. The next one is scheduled for Friday in St. Louis and will use a town hall format, for which Gallup will select the participants. How does this selection process work?
The Commission on Presidential Debates has retained Gallup to recruit a random sample of uncommitted voters from the St. Louis metropolitan area to be the town hall participants in Friday's debate. Gallup also did the same thing for a 1992 debate at the University of Richmond (with George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Ross Perot), the 1996 debate at the University of San Diego (Clinton and Bob Dole), and the 2000 debate at Washington University at St. Louis (George W. Bush and Al Gore).
The procedures for selecting town hall participants are similar to those Gallup uses when conducting a normal poll. We contact a random probability sample of the St. Louis area, ask people a series of questions to determine if they qualify as an uncommitted voter, and then invite them to participate in the debate.
Although more than 100 participants will be on stage behind Bush and Kerry, the 90-minute time limit means that only about 20 people will actually end up asking questions. Under the terms of the debate agreement hammered out by the two campaigns, moderator Charlie Gibson of ABC News will select the questioners and attempt to keep the questions roughly evenly balanced between foreign and domestic issues.
Bush was favored to "win" the first debate. He didn't. Have expectations changed for the next one?
Yes. And that's probably a good thing for Bush. Most debaters would rather be underdogs than expected winners. The Oct. 1-3 poll found that 48% of Americans now expect that Kerry will do the better job in the town hall debate in St. Louis, while 41% say Bush will do better.
The town hall debate will include both foreign and domestic questions. The third debate in Arizona will be exclusively about domestic issues. How do the two candidates stack up on domestic issues?
Kerry has now regained his edge on handling the economy. And economic debate questions have the potential to be intensely relevant to American voters.
For example, perhaps the most important question asked in the 1992 town hall debate between George H.W. Bush, Clinton, and Perot came from a young woman who asked about the deficit. It wasn't a particularly compelling question -- she asked how the federal deficit was affecting the candidates personally. Literally speaking, the answer to such a complex question would need to involve a torturous discussion of how the deficit affects interest rates, which in turn affect the ability to borrow money, and so forth. The question apparently bollixed Bush, who stammered his way through an answer as he self-evidently attempted to figure out what the woman was really asking. Clinton, however, turned the question into what he wanted it to be. He walked toward the questioner, told her he felt her pain, and then proceeded to answer the question in terms of how the overall bad economy was affecting everyone in the country.
It remains to be seen whether such interesting economic questions will be asked in the Friday debate. By definition, the economy will be the major focus of the final debate scheduled in Arizona on Oct. 13.
The key question is which candidate will do better when the questioning does indeed turn to the economy. For a few months now, Kerry has enjoyed a fairly consistent lead over Bush when voters are asked who can better handle the economy. Bush moved ahead of Kerry on the Sept. 23-26 poll, but Kerry has moved back into the lead on the Oct. 1-3 poll.
Interestingly, Kerry is essentially tied or slightly ahead of Bush on the economy in two key showdown states, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In Florida, on the other hand, Bush has a significant margin over Kerry. The two candidates are statistically tied in Ohio and Pennsylvania on the horse race question (in which respondents are asked whom they plan to vote for), while Bush has a significant lead in the Sunshine State (at least for the moment). Correlation is no proof of causation, but these numbers certainly suggest that the economy continues to be a pivotal issue in many of the states that will end up determining the election outcome.
There's a vice presidential debate Tuesday night. Where do the two vice presidential candidates stand?
Vice President Dick Cheney and Sen. John Edwards will debate Tuesday night on the campus of Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland (Note, by the way, that all four of this year's debates are taking place in "swing" states -- Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and Arizona).
Edwards has a much more positive image than Cheney has, in part because Edwards is new on the national political scene and has not been in the public eye long enough to acquire significant negative baggage. As of Sept. 3-5, Cheney has a 48% favorable, 44% unfavorable image, compared with Edwards' 56% favorable, 30% unfavorable rating.
Voters have truly mixed expectations about this debate. Forty-two percent say Edwards will do the better job Tuesday night, while 40% say Cheney will do better. As is always the case with these vice presidential debates, this debate probably won't have a major impact on the structure of the race.
Much of last Thursday's debate focused on Iraq. How do Americans feel about the situation in Iraq at this point?
A bare majority of Americans -- 51% -- feel that the United States did not make a mistake in sending troops into Iraq. Forty-eight percent say that the United States did make a mistake.
There has been some significant change on this "mistake" measure in the last several months. In mid-summer, as many as 54% of Americans said that the war was a mistake. That percentage then began to drop; at one point in early September, just after the Republican convention, only 38% of Americans said that sending troops to Iraq was a mistake. Now the mistake number is inching up again.
I think it's fair to say that Iraq is currently dividing the nation right down the middle. Iraq also remains a political war, with Republicans saying that it was not a mistake, and Democrats just as likely to say that it was a mistake.
Is Bush maintaining his lead over Kerry in the perception that he is a strong leader, and that he is the better candidate to handle terrorism?
Yes. Although Bush's lead over Kerry on these two dimensions has diminished since the first debate, they remain Bush strengths.
The Supreme Court opened its 2004-2005 session Monday. How do Americans feel about the Supreme Court?
Only 51% of Americans approve of the job the Supreme Court is doing -- the lowest percentage we have recorded on this question. Perceptions of the court's image have become quite politicized, with equal percentages of Americans saying it is too liberal and too conservative. Republicans are fairly strong in their belief that the court is too liberal, while Democrats are just as strong in their belief that it is too conservative.