GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Most registered voters say that the stakes in this year's presidential election are higher than in previous years, and that they are afraid of what will happen if their preferred candidate loses the election next week. While voters are a little more satisfied than dissatisfied with the way President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry are conducting their campaigns, they are much more likely now than in 2000 to say the tone of the overall campaign is negative. A plurality of voters believes the news media have not been biased toward either candidate, but among the rest of the voters, more see a bias in favor of Kerry than Bush.
A High-Stakes Election
A recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Oct. 22-24, finds that 90% of registered voters agree that the "stakes in this presidential election are higher than in previous years," including 70% who "strongly" agree. Only 9% disagree.
This sentiment is much higher now than it was during the 1996 presidential election, when 67% said the stakes were higher in that election than in previous years, including just 37% who "strongly" agreed. Twenty-nine percent disagreed at that time.
Democrats are slightly more likely than Republicans to say the stakes in the 2004 presidential election are higher than in previous years, although large majorities of both groups agree strongly with the statement: 67% of Republicans, compared with 78% of Democrats. In 1996, there was essentially no difference between the parties, with 39% of Republicans and 36% of Democrats saying they strongly agreed.
The results of this question mirror those from a separate question asked in the Oct. 14-16 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, which found roughly 7 in 10 registered voters saying the outcome of the election mattered more to them than in previous years. The results to this question were much higher than Gallup found in 2000 (47% in mid-October) and in 1996 (average of 41% in mid-October).
Most Americans "Afraid" of What Will Happen if Their Candidate Loses
Both campaigns have been criticized for using "scare tactics" trying to influence voters -- for example, the Republicans for saying a terrorist attack is more likely to happen if Kerry is elected, and Democrats for arguing that the military draft is likely to be reinstated if Bush is re-elected. There have also been a large number of negative ads attacking the opposing candidate rather than talking positively about the candidate sponsoring the ad.
All of this may, in part, explain why a majority of registered voters, 54%, say they strongly agree with the statement that they are afraid of what will happen if their candidate for president does not win on Election Day. An additional 22% somewhat agree with the statement, while 37% disagree. Agreement with the statement was substantially lower in October 1996, when 35% of registered voters strongly agreed and 24% agreed somewhat.
These results show few partisan differences. Sixty-one percent of Republicans and 58% of Democrats strongly agree that they are afraid of what will happen if their candidate loses the election. In 1996, Democrats were slightly more likely than Republicans to agree strongly with this statement, by a margin of 41% to 34%.
Satisfaction with the Campaigns Down Slightly Since 2000
Voters across the country are slightly more likely to express satisfaction with Bush's campaign than with Kerry's campaign. The current results show that 55% of registered voters say they are satisfied with the way Bush's campaign has been conducted, while 42% are dissatisfied. By comparison, 50% are satisfied and 47% dissatisfied with the way Kerry's campaign has been conducted.
Voters expressed a greater degree of satisfaction with the way Bush and former Vice President Al Gore conducted their campaigns in 2000. An Oct. 6-9, 2000 poll found 62% of registered voters saying they were satisfied with Gore's campaign, and 60% satisfied with Bush's campaign.
Nearly Half Say Tone of Campaigns Mostly Negative
Forty-eight percent of registered voters nationwide say the tone of this year's campaign has been mostly negative, which includes 23% who say it has been "very negative." Thirty-seven percent say the tone has been equally positive and negative, and 13% say it has been mostly positive.
These results show a stark difference from the public's perceptions of the 2000 presidential campaign between Bush and Gore. In Oct. 2000, 28% of registered voters said the tone of the campaign was mostly positive. Only 14% said the campaign tone was mostly negative. The majority of voters at the time (55%) said the campaign was equally positive and negative.
Media Bias?
The Oct. 22-24 poll finds that registered voters are more likely to say the media coverage of this year's election has been biased in Kerry's favor (35%) than they are to say coverage has been biased in Bush's favor (16%). A plurality of Americans (45%), however, says the media coverage has not been biased toward either candidate.
The data show that a majority of registered Republicans (56%) say the media coverage has been biased in favor of Kerry, while roughly a third of Republicans (36%) say the coverage has not been biased toward either candidate and only 4% say it has been biased in favor of Bush. These results compare with 13% of registered Democrats who say the coverage has been biased in Kerry's favor, 31% of Democrats who say it has been biased in Bush's favor, and 52% who say it has not been biased.
These results fit with consistent Gallup polling showing that nearly half of all Americans -- including an overwhelming majority of Republicans -- perceive a liberal media bias.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,538 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 22-24, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
For results based on the 776 national adults in the Form A half-sample and 762 national adults in the Form B half-sample, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±4 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
