Public Gives Lackluster Review to State of the Union

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's annual Mood of the Nation survey, conducted Jan. 3-5, finds the public less than enthusiastic about general conditions in the country.

According to the new poll, only 46% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the nation; 53% are dissatisfied. When asked where the country presently stands on a scale from 0 to 10, 49% rate the country positively, between 6 and 10; about a quarter give it the midpoint rating of 5; and another quarter give expressly negative ratings, between 0 and 4.

These ratings continue a rut in public temperament that seemed to take hold sometime in 2003.

• In 20 of the 25 months since January 2003, more Americans said they were "dissatisfied" than "satisfied" with the way things are going in the United States.
  
  
• In polling conducted in January of each year since 2003, barely half the public has given the country a positive review when asked to rate it on a scale from 0 to 10.

The period from 2003 through today stands in contrast to 2001 and 2002, when the public was much more upbeat about the country. In 17 of the 24 months spanning that period, more Americans said they were satisfied than dissatisfied. More specifically, in January 2001 -- on the eve of George W. Bush's first inauguration -- 56% of Americans were satisfied with the state of the country and 73% gave a positive score when they were asked to rate current national conditions. In January 2002 -- with the country still reeling from the 9/11 terrorist attacks -- 65% were satisfied with the country and 64% gave national conditions a positive score.

So it's not the best of times, but it's also not the worst of times. According to Gallup trends dating back several decades, the percentage of Americans satisfied with the country or giving it positive ratings on the 0 to 10 scale was much lower in the 1970s and early to mid-1990s. For instance, the low point of satisfaction since Gallup has been using the "satisfied/dissatisfied" measure came in 1979, when only 12% of Americans were satisfied with the state of the country. As recently as 1996, only 24% were satisfied.

High points for satisfaction -- when the percentage satisfied reached two-thirds or more -- came in the mid-1980s and late 1990s (corresponding with booming economies); in 1991, immediately following the end of the Gulf War; and in the post-9/11 period in 2001 (when Americans were rallying in support of the country).

Recent Ratings Are Steady

Today's results show little recent change.

• The satisfaction measure -- initiated by Gallup in 1979 and tracked monthly since October 2000 -- has found public satisfaction hovering in the mid-40s for the past few months. In fact, except for the initial reading in January 2004, when 55% said they were satisfied, every reading for the past year has found the public more dissatisfied than satisfied with the state of the nation.

• The 11-point scale on which respondents rate present conditions -- first asked in 1959 and updated annually since 2001 -- produces a slightly more negative assessment today than it did a year ago, when 53% had a positive view of the country. The current rating is similar to that of January 2003, but substantially lower than what was found in 2001 and 2002.

Looking Ahead and Looking Back

This 11-point rating assessment is part of a question sequence known as Gallup's "striving scale." Respondents use the same 0 to 10 scale to indicate where they think the nation stands at the present time, where it will stand five years from now, and where it stood five years ago.

While just 49% think that present conditions rate a positive score on this scale (between 6 and 10), the public is more positive when assessing the past and the future. Three-quarters give positive ratings to conditions five years ago, and 59% believe that conditions five years from now will be positive.

Still, as with optimism about current conditions, optimism about the future has also declined. Whereas 59% today believe the United States will enjoy positive conditions five years from now, 65% held this view in January 2004.

The cause for this decline in Americans' outlook for the country is not immediately clear. The public's evaluation of the economy -- typically an important component of overall public mood -- is no worse today than it was a year ago: 41% currently describe the economy as excellent or good, compared with 37% in mid-January 2004.

Satisfaction in Greater Detail

The annual survey also tracks public satisfaction with 28 specific areas of national concern. Between January 2004 and today, public satisfaction declined significantly in 8 of these. They include the nation's military strength and preparedness, the nation's security from terrorism, energy policies, acceptance of homosexuality, the nation's campaign finance laws, the influence of organized religion, the opportunity for a person to get ahead by working hard, and the quality of medical care.

At the same time, satisfaction increased in four areas, including satisfaction with the moral and ethical climate of the country, the nation's crime policies, the amount Americans pay in federal taxes, and the role America plays in world affairs.

More analysis of this specific national satisfaction data will be forthcoming on gallup.com.

Things Look Better at Close Range

While attitudes toward the country are tepid, Americans' satisfaction with the way things are going closer to home remains positive.

• Three-quarters are satisfied with the way things are going in their local communities; only 24% are dissatisfied. This is unchanged from last year.
  
  
• About 6 in 10 (59%) say they are satisfied with the way things are going in their states, while 39% are dissatisfied. This is up slightly from 53% satisfied last year.

Most of the increase in satisfaction at the state level comes from residents in the Western region of the United States. This could be the result of changes in attitudes of California residents, who comprise a large share of the survey's Western region. Previous Gallup analysis has found that trust in state government was "atypically low" in the West in the fall of 2003, a fact attributed to very low trust by California residents due to dissatisfaction that led to the ultimate recall of Gov. Gray Davis in October 2003.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,005 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 3-5, 2005. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

3. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

4. Are you very [satisfied/dissatisfied], or just somewhat [satisfied/dissatisfied]?

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.3-4)       

5. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in your state at this time?

6. All in all, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in your local community?

15. We'd like you to imagine a ladder with steps numbered from 0 at the bottom to 10 at the top. Suppose the top of the ladder represents the best possible situation for our country and the bottom represents the worst possible situation. Please tell me the number of the step on which you think the United States stands at the present time?

16. What is the number of the step on which you think the U.S. stood about five years ago?

17. And just your best guess, if things go pretty much as you now expect, what is the number of the step on which you think the U.S. will stand, about five years from now?