Social Security
Social Security reform remained very much in the news over the weekend, with politicians of all stripes showing up on the Sunday talk shows to make their arguments for or against President Bush's plan.
The White House was represented on both Fox News Channel and CNN by presidential counselor Dan Bartlett, who among other things said (on CNN): "Well, if you look at -- if you dive into the details of some of those pollings that we've seen over the past week, the major opposition to personal retirement accounts and what President Bush is talking about is coming from seniors."
I'm not so sure the data support Bartlett's interpretation. Indeed, my "diving into the details" of the polls found that while seniors are opposed to private accounts, so are many younger Americans.
A Gallup question last month presented respondents with a fairly complex rendering of what would be involved in reforming Social Security by instigating the use of private investment accounts. ("As you may know, one idea to address concerns with the Social Security system would allow people who retire in future decades to invest some of their Social Security taxes in the stock market and bonds, but would reduce the guaranteed benefits they get when they retire.") The results show just about a third of all Americans (36%) think private investment accounts are a good idea. Sure enough, a slightly lower percentage of Americans aged 65 and older think the plan is a good idea (28%), but 50- to 64-year-olds -- a group not typically labeled "seniors" -- give an equally tepid response (27%). Even among Americans aged 30 to 49, support for the idea rises only to 38%. Only among 18- to 29-year-olds do a slight majority (53%) agree with the idea of private accounts as represented in the question.
If the White House attempts to pitch its message primarily at younger Americans, there are more troubles ahead. The youngest adults, between the ages of 18 and 29, are significantly more likely to say they trust the Democratic Party than the Republican Party to handle Social Security.
Hagel's Plan
Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska has promulgated a new Social Security reform plan that would include private investment accounts, but would also raise the Social Security retirement age to 68 and provide a lower percentage of benefits to workers who retire earlier than that.
I'm not at all certain the public is going to jump up and down with joy when it hears about Hagel's plan. First of all, when Gallup floated the idea of raising the retirement age as a cure for Social Security's ills in a poll a month ago, only a third of Americans said it was a good idea.
Furthermore, some more recent Gallup research shows significant numbers of Americans retire long before they reach age 68. Twenty percent of 55- to 59-year-olds are already retired, and that percentage jumps to 45% among 60- to 64-year-olds. Clearly, there are many Americans who won't like the idea of delaying their ability to access Social Security money if they choose to retire before age 68 (or if their companies force them to retire before then, as has been the case for many workers in recent years).
Bush on the Stump
Bush travels to Louisville, Ky., Montgomery, Ala., and Memphis, Tenn., this week in a continuing effort to bolster support for private investment accounts.
The Bush administration claims Americans don't yet understand the intricacies of the investment account plan, that the public realizes Social Security needs fixing, and support for privatization will grow in time.
But the results of one recent Gallup question give one pause for thought along these lines. Gallup asked respondents about a time frame for making major changes in the Social Security system "to ensure its long-term future." Only 38% said major changes are needed in the next year or two, while just as many (37%) said changes should be made within the next 10 years, and another 22% said major changes are not needed at all within the next 10 years.
Still, we shouldn't assume attitudes toward Social Security are set in stone. Americans' opinions on this complex issue are quite variable depending on how the concept is explained. Much can, and probably will, change as the intense campaigning continues.
The Economy
Mixed news on the economic front last week. The price of gas at the pump is reportedly going to rise significantly. At the same time, the government reported last week that new job creation occurred at a record rate of 262,000 jobs in February, suggesting a pick-up in the economy.
So much for the hard economic data. What does the American public think?
So far there isn't much reflection of these events in Gallup's monthly economic tracking data. When asked to name the most important financial problem facing their families, Americans are most likely to name healthcare costs, lack of money/low wages, unemployment, college expenses, retirement savings, too much debt, and the cost of owning a home. Only 3% say energy costs are the biggest financial problem facing their families.
There hasn't been a major increase in the percentage of Americans who say now is a good time to be looking for a quality job. Thirty-eight percent say it is, while 57% say it is not. These numbers are slightly more positive than they were for most of last year, so it's possible we are at the beginning of an upward trajectory in optimism about the labor market, which may become more evident in the months to come. At the moment, however, there is no evidence of a major turnabout in these attitudes.
Vietnam
This week marks the 40th anniversary of when the United States committed major numbers of troops in Vietnam. How much protest and angst was there in America as this conflict got started in 1965?
Not a lot. The most relevant question in the Gallup Poll archives from March 1965 was one asking Americans to choose between two alternatives: 1) "…start peace negotiations now with communist leaders", or 2) "…send more troops and airplanes to put us in a strong position." Americans were essentially split right down the middle in their responses.
In August 1965, Gallup asked Americans if it had been a mistake to send troops to Vietnam. Only about a quarter said yes. In fact, it wasn't until more than two years later, in October 1967, that a plurality of Americans said going into Vietnam was a mistake, and it took until August 1968 for that percentage to reach majority proportions.
More recently, Gallup polling has shown that the majority of Americans, looking back at Vietnam, do not believe it was a "just" war. By contrast, a majority believes both World War II and the Korean War were just.
Mexico
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice heads to Mexico Thursday to meet with Mexican leaders. Gallup data show she will be in friendly territory as far as the American public is concerned; 74% of Americans have a favorable opinion of our neighbor to the south.
Baseball
This the first full week of Major League Baseball spring training. But does anyone care? Certainly not as many people as 50 years ago. Only 10% of Americans say baseball is their favorite sport to watch, behind both football and basketball. That's a major change from the 1960s and before, when baseball was overwhelmingly chosen as Americans' favorite sport to watch.
Most sports fans welcome the new steroid-testing program that goes into effect this year, although the majority say the new policies don't go far enough. Most sports fans also think San Francisco Giants' star Barry Bonds is not telling the truth when he says he didn't know the performance-enhancing substances he used in the past were steroids.
Martha and Michael
According to Gallup data, Americans believe both Martha Stewart and Michael Jackson are guilty of the crimes for which they've been charged (and convicted of in Stewart's case). A majority of Americans say that what Stewart did was wrong (although not necessarily illegal), and a majority say the child molestation charges lodged against Jackson are probably or definitely true.
Quite fascinatingly, Gallup data show that Americans' opinions of Stewart have changed for the better since her incarceration. That has prompted observers to speculate on prison's potentially salubrious effects for other celebrity CEOs. Stewart's standing has shot up most significantly among women, the primary target for her various business ventures.
There is a race gap in opinions on Jackson's guilt. Blacks are less likely than whites to think that Jackson is guilty, but the race gap is not as pronounced as it was for another celebrity defendant 10 years ago, O.J. Simpson.
Death Penalty
The Supreme Court last week struck down the constitutionality of using the death penalty for juveniles. That decision is seemingly right in line with American public opinion. In 2002, 69% of Americans said they opposed using the ultimate penalty for juveniles. At the same time, Gallup's last update shows that 64% of Americans are in favor of using the death penalty in cases of murder in general, with 31% opposed.
Religion, Age, and Gender
There is little doubt that religion has become one of the most talked-about aspects of American life. TIME, Newsweek, U.S. News and World Report, and most other newsmagazines now regularly schedule cover stories on aspects of religion. Religiosity became perhaps the key variable in the 2004 presidential election. Religious books often dominate American bestseller lists and more than 40% of Americans attend church on a regular basis. The relationship between religion and social/cultural/political life has become the central motif in the most powerful struggles going on in the world today.
The bottom line: People's religious beliefs and practices have become one of the most powerful factors in human social organization and culture today.
Who is most religious in our society? A special Gallup analysis of more than 30,000 interviews conducted over the last several years provides an answer: older Americans and women.
The probability of going to church regularly increases significantly by age. Church attendance is also higher among women than men. Thus, the highest church attendance occurs among women aged 65 and older, 60% of whom say they attend weekly or almost every week. The lowest self-reported church attendance occurs, naturally enough, among 18- to 29-year-old men, only 30% of whom attend weekly or almost weekly. Even though church attendance increases with age among both men and women, the gender gap in attendance is evident in every age group.