Crime in the News
The recent high-focus news coverage of the shooting rampages in Atlanta and Brookfield, Wis., has brought attention to the crime situation in the United States. Atlanta citizens were cowering behind closed doors as authorities conducted a massive manhunt for the man who killed the superior court judge presiding over his case, a court reporter, a sheriff's deputy, and a federal agent. In Wisconsin, authorities are still trying to piece together what motivated a man to take the lives of seven individuals in a church service at a hotel before turning the gun on himself.
It is unclear whether these events will increase Americans' worries about crime in the long run. A review of current views on the crime situation, however, suggests Americans' worries about crime have actually been declining in recent years -- both when they consider crime at the national and local level.
Only 2% of Americans mention crime as the most important problem facing the country today. That can be contrasted with the results of this same "most important problem" question from January 1994, when 49% of Americans mentioned crime as the most important problem facing the country -- by far the No. 1 problem mentioned at that time.
Gallup's October 2004 survey on the safety of American cities showed that Atlanta was essentially perceived to be in the middle of the pack. Fifty-eight percent of Americans said Atlanta was safe -- significantly below cities at the top of the list, such as Minneapolis and Seattle. At the same time, the perceived safety of Atlanta was substantially ahead of the cities at the bottom of the pack -- Detroit and Washington, D.C.
Whither the Economy?
A number of official government indicators suggest the economy is doing well. The Federal Reserve Board's "Beige Book" released these comments last week:
Information received from District Banks suggests that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace since the last report. All twelve Districts indicated that economic activity has increased ... Consumer spending was steady to up moderately, with a number of Districts noting sluggish auto sales. Retailers were mostly satisfied with current inventory levels and were generally optimistic about the outlook. Travel and tourism activity were characterized as strong, with a few exceptions. Reports from most other service industries also showed improvement. Nearly all Districts reported continued expansion in manufacturing activity. Housing markets and residential construction activity were described as robust in most areas ...
Still, I don't see signs of a major breakthrough in the way Americans feel about the economy. If anything, Gallup's readings on consumer confidence are slightly more negative than they have been recently.
Gallup's March 7-10 poll shows half of Americans believe economic conditions in this country are getting worse, while just 41% say they are getting better. The results of this measure are quite labile, but these are the most negative readings of this year so far.
What about the current state of the economy? Only 35% of Americans rate current economic conditions as excellent or good. Additionally, 57% say it's not a good time to be looking for a quality job, unchanged from mid-February. About 3 in 10 Americans mention some aspect of the economy as the nation's most important problem, and that number is also unchanged from recent months.
Are there signs of improvement? I do see a slight uptick in the percentage of Americans who say they will increase their personal spending in the next six months. That number is now at 33%, technically the highest Gallup has measured since we started asking this question in October 2001. But before one gets too excited, it's important to note that the "I will increase my spending" percentage has been as high as 31% during the last year, so there hasn't been a major shift -- at least not yet.
Energy
OPEC ministers meet in Iran Wednesday as the cost of gas continues to go up in America.
There are few signs of energy panic yet, however. Last week's Gallup Poll showed just 2% of Americans think fuel and oil prices are the nation's biggest problem. The update on Gallup's measure on the seriousness of the energy situation in the United States shows no major shift from last year, and certainly isn't as negative as it's been at numerous points in the past.
Karen Hughes
President George W. Bush nominated his former adviser Karen Hughes to an undersecretary of state position Monday. Hughes' primary responsibility will be to work on the noble-yet-difficult objective of improving the United States' image around the world.
It's difficult to dispute the fact that some action is needed along these lines. Gallup's Poll of nine predominantly Islamic countries in 2001 and 2002 showed just how negative the image of the United States was among those in predominantly Islamic countries at that time, and polls of other nations released since then have reinforced that conclusion.
Analysts at the Program for International Policy Attitudes (PIPA), for example, reviewed the data from a recent BBC World Service Poll of 21 countries around the world and concluded: "…the reelection of President Bush is seen as negative for world peace and security by a majority in sixteen countries and a plurality in another two." PIPA also found "…For a substantial minority worldwide these negative feelings about Bush have generalized to the American people."
Along the same lines, a recent Pew Global Attitudes Project concluded: "…Anti-Americanism is deeper and broader now than at any time in modern history. It is most acute in the Muslim world, but it spans the globe -- from Europe to Asia, from South America to Africa. And while much of the animus is aimed directly at President Bush and his policies, especially the war in Iraq, this new global hardening of attitudes amounts to something larger than a thumbs down on the current occupant of the White House."
Congress Approval
There's been a surprising drop in Americans' approval of the way Congress is handling its job, and this drop has us scratching our heads here at Gallup. Last week's March 7-10 Gallup Poll found only 37% of Americans approve of Congress, down from 45% in February, and technically the lowest rating since 1999 (although congressional approval has been as low as 41% in recent months). The drop is almost exactly the same among Republicans and Democrats.
My best guess is that congressional approval is suffering from a generalized reaction to the bickering about Social Security among U.S. senators and representatives. As my colleague David Moore wrote in a perhaps understated way on gallup.com Monday: "Typically, news coverage does not portray Congress in a favorable light when members spend a great deal of time debating legislative issues and arguing with each other." (See "Public Approval of Congress Declines; Bush Approval Steady" in Related Items.)
The Blogosphere
Here's a recent headline from the Chicago Tribune, typical of many I've seen recently: "`Old' media, bloggers square off at conference." The story, by Steven Johnson, details the events at a symposium titled, "Whose News? Media, Technology and the Common Good," sponsored by the Media Center of the American Press Institute and Harvard's Nieman Foundation for Journalism.
Talk about blogs is nothing new. Just last week I attended the Opinion Awards and Forum (co-sponsored by THE WEEK magazine and the Aspen Institute) in Washington, D.C., and much of the after-dinner discussion centered on the impact of blogs on American discourse and journalism.
It's hard to determine the precise impact of bloggers. A recent Gallup Poll showed only a minority of adult Americans (26%) are even aware of what blogs are, much less active users. But that doesn't mean that blogs aren't influential. As my colleague Lydia Saad pointed out in her report on blogs last week (see "Blogs Not Yet in the Media Big Leagues" in Related Items), the influence of a media outlet can often be proportionately larger than the outlet's actual audience. The New York Times and Washington Post, for example, are read by just a few million people each day at most, including their online audiences. Yet these two papers have tremendous influence because they are read by the elites and media gatekeepers who establish the agenda for other news coverage.
One interesting finding from Gallup's research is that there are no major differences between Republicans and Democrats in self-reported use of blogs. It would appear from our data that the blogosphere, at this point, is not dominated by partisans of either the left or the right.
ANWR
There has been no let up in the battle over drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, but it looks like things may be coming to a head this week. Republicans will attach a provision authorizing such drilling to the 2006 budget bill, which would neatly bypass the filibustering that has accompanied many previous efforts to pass such legislation. Republican Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, one of the primary supporters of drilling in the Arctic, said on Friday that he is suffering from "clinical depression" over his inability to get ANWR open for drilling. (Stevens later recanted from his dire self-diagnosis and said he is not taking anti-depressants and hasn't been seeing a psychiatrist.)
On the other hand, the Natural Resources Defense Council is mobilizing to prevent the passage of such legislation, and its Web site extols visitors to "Tell Congress: Don't Drill the Arctic Refuge!"
How do the American people weigh in on this issue? New Gallup Poll data indicate 41% of Americans are in favor of opening ANWR for oil exploration and 55% are opposed. These numbers are little changed from March 2002, when Gallup last asked this question.
Satisfaction
Overall satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States is relatively unchanged from last month. Just 42% of Americans are satisfied and 56% are not. Although there's been no dramatic change in recent months, the numbers represent a clear lack of ebullience. The highest satisfaction level Gallup has recorded since 1979 (when the question was first asked) was 71% in February 1999. The lowest readings? Twelve percent in July 1979 and 14% in the summer of 1992.
Satisfaction is strongly related to political affiliation. Right now, 69% of Republicans are satisfied with the way things are going compared with 36% of independents and 18% of Democrats.