Iraq Polling
Appearing with Wolf Blitzer on CNN this past week, Vice President Dick Cheney said: "… the business that George Bush is in, being president of the United States, and those of us who work for him is to do what we think is right for the country, and to make tough decisions. The last thing you want to do is to read the latest poll and then base policy on that. … We are doing what we believe is right. We're convinced it's right. We're convinced that, in fact, we'll achieve our objectives. And, frankly, we don't pay a lot of attention to the polls." White House communications director Nicolle Devenish recently commented that President Bush believes following polls is the same as "a dog chasing its tail."
Of course, Cheney and Devenish are being a bit disingenuous. The Bush administration pays a lot of attention to polls. By all accounts, senior White House adviser Karl Rove knows as much or more about political polling than does any other political operative alive today. Almost certainly as a direct result of more negative poll numbers, Bush administration officials have fanned out over the last week or two, arguing the administration's case on talk and news shows. (Ironically, it was because of bad poll numbers that Cheney appeared on CNN to tell America the administration doesn't follow polls.)
President Bush himself will make a prime-time speech to the nation, focusing on Iraq, from Fort Bragg, N.C., Tuesday night. Again, we can assume that the recent negative poll numbers are a big reason why the administration requested prime-time coverage from the broadcast networks for the speech.
Almost every poll I've reviewed shows dropping approval of the way President Bush is handling his job in office and increasing opposition to the war in Iraq.
The negative polling on Iraq represents significant change on this issue over the last two years. As the war began in March 2003, polling data showed that Americans generally supported the Bush administration's rationale for going to war -- perhaps wisely deciding that they, themselves, knew little about the specifics of the situation in Iraq. At that time, the average American had no basis for assessing which weapons of mass destruction Saddam Hussein did or didn't have, or the potential impact of toppling Saddam on the future of the Middle East. Thus, Americans essentially sent their proxies to their elected representative, George W. Bush, to do what he thought best.
But over the last two years, Americans have had a great deal of continuing exposure to the situation in Iraq, and have become increasingly negative. There have been short-term bursts of optimism about the war -- in December 2003, when Saddam was captured, and earlier this year, after the Iraqi elections. But the general trend has been downward.
Over the weekend, the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed only 37% of Americans believe President Bush has a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq -- the lowest such reading across nine times this question has been asked since the summer of 2003. These results probably explain Bush's prime-time speech on Tuesday night more than anything else, although it is doubtful that one speech will make a great deal of difference in public opinion unless the president announces some dramatic change in the situation in Iraq.
Over half of Americans believe the war in Iraq was a mistake. A slight majority -- when given a choice -- say they believe the United States should establish a timetable for withdrawal of troops, something the Bush administration has adamantly opposed.
The president may well argue in his speech that the war in Iraq is an integral part of a larger war on terrorism, but Americans are split almost down the middle on that issue, with 47% saying that it is, and 50% saying it is not. Furthermore, by a 46% to 43% margin, Americans say the war has made the United States less safe, rather than safer, from terrorism.
Bush Approval
Gallup's new poll shows President Bush's overall job approval rating is now at 45%, tied for the lowest of his administration.
Perhaps as importantly, Bush's disapproval rating is now at 53%. By two points, that is the highest disapproval rating across the 172 times Gallup has asked this question since the president first took office in January 2001.
Bush's approval on handling Iraq is at 40% -- tied for the lowest of his administration.
The Supreme Court
The Supreme Court ended its current session on Monday. Among other things, the court handed down a complex ruling on the issue of the Ten Commandments being displayed on public property. The ruling had the effect of allowing the Ten Commandments to be displayed on the state capitol grounds in Texas, but disallowing their display in two Kentucky courthouses.
This weekend's Gallup Poll asked Americans about displaying the Ten Commandments "on the grounds of state government buildings," and found 75% agreeing that this should be legal, echoing previous polling on this issue.
As they end their term, the court's sinking approval rating should perhaps be of some concern to the Supreme Court justices. Only 42% of Americans now approve of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job, the lowest of the nine times Gallup has asked this question since 2000. This year's annual confidence in institutions poll also shows confidence in the Supreme Court is near an all-time low.
The current approval ratings of the three branches of the federal government are as follows: President Bush (executive) -- 45%, Congress (legislative) -- 34%, and Supreme Court (judicial) -- 42%. Not an auspicious report card for any of these three pillars of government at this point in America's history.
Karl Rove
White House senior adviser and deputy chief of staff Rove moved into the spotlight this past week with some widely quoted comments made to a conservative group in New York City:
"Conservatives saw the savagery of 9/11 and the attacks and prepared for war; liberals saw the savagery of the 9/11 attacks and wanted to prepare indictments and offer therapy and understanding for our attackers. In the wake of 9/11, conservatives believed it was time to unleash the might and power of the United States military against the Taliban; in the wake of 9/11, liberals believed it was time to ... submit a petition."
Democrats quickly pounced on the comments and demanded an apology.
Gallup researchers looked back at polling data from the weeks and months just after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Certainly, it is not appropriate to say that liberals and Democrats did not support the administration's military response in Afghanistan at that time. A Gallup Poll conducted Oct. 19-21, 2001, showed 93% of conservatives, 90% of moderates, and 80% of liberals approving of military action in Afghanistan. Additionally, a CBS News/New York Times poll conducted at about the same time found 93% of Republicans, 86% of Democrats, and 76% of independents saying "yes" when asked about U.S. military action more generally.
Housing
Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve Board will meet this week to ponder what to do about interest rates and, at least in part, to continue to monitor the impact of the booming real estate market.
Despite widespread concern that the housing market bubble may soon burst -- at least in some parts of the country -- a new UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism survey shows investors are still enamored with real estate. Asked which is the safer investment at this point in time, 77% of investors say real estate, while only 22% say stocks. By more than a 2-to-1 margin, investors also think real estate will be a more profitable investment than stocks over the next three to six months.
Women in Combat
Four servicewomen died in Iraq last weekend as a result of insurgent bombing activity, highlighting the fact that combat deaths in Iraq are not just among men. Thirty-nine women have died in Iraq since the war began in March 2003. About 11,000 women are on duty there now.
The American public still strongly supports the idea of women serving in combat jobs in the military -- by a 67% to 32% margin. There is a significant divergence of opinion by age, with older Americans much less likely than younger Americans to support the idea of women in combat jobs. There is, however, no significant difference between men and women on this issue.
Billy Graham
Evangelist Billy Graham concluded what will probably be his final evangelistic crusade in the United States this past weekend in New York City. The evangelist first became famous in the 1950s, and from 1948 to the present has been on the top 10 list of Gallup's most admired men 48 times, significantly more than any other individual.
Graham has not escaped controversy over the years -- particularly in light of his association with various presidents and the revelation of what were widely perceived to be anti-Semitic comments in conversations with President Richard Nixon. Graham has a 66% favorable and 20% unfavorable rating, and his favorable ratings are substantially lower among non-Christians than among Protestants and Catholics. He is also less well known among younger Americans.
Still, about one in six Americans say they have seen Graham in person at some point in their lives, and more than 8 in 10 say they have seen him on television. In 1957, only 46% of Americans had seen Graham on television (access to television was proliferating rapidly at that time), and almost as many had heard him on the radio.
Evangelicals
The Billy Graham Crusade has put the focus back on American evangelicals, a group that received extensive media coverage during last fall's elections and continues to be the focus of much attention today.
How many evangelicals are there in the United States? Since no one can agree on a definition of exactly who is and isn't an evangelical, the answer to that question is essentially unknowable. Gallup analysis puts the number somewhere in the 20% range, but other estimates have been as low as 7% of the adult population.