Bush Approval at 44%

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup Poll finds a decline in George W. Bush's job approval rating. After standing at 49% approval in the prior two CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls conducted this month, now just 44% of Americans say they approve of Bush, a new low mark for the president. The poll also shows a drop in Bush's favorable rating to 48%, which is the first time it has dropped below 50% since Gallup began tracking this opinion in 1999. Four in 10 Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the country, which is essentially unchanged from early July. The poll shows continued positive momentum for the Democratic Party in terms of national party identification and ratings of the two major political parties, both of which were evident before the drop in Bush approval occurred.

The July 25-28 Gallup Poll finds 44% of Americans approving and 51% disapproving of the job Bush is doing as president. Bush's prior low approval rating was 45%, which occurred once in March and once again in June of this year.

Bush had been at 49% approval in the first two July polls, which represented an improvement over where he stood in late June. To a large degree, then, the decline observed in the new poll could simply represent a fading of a short-term boost to Bush's public standing. His higher July numbers may have been a product of the increased focus on terrorism following the London terror attack on July 7 and an attempted attack on July 21, as well as the attack in Egypt on July 23. Both July polls were conducted in the immediate aftermath of those attacks (July 7-10 and July 22-24). Also, Bush's selection of John Roberts as Supreme Court nominee on July 19 has been well received by the public, but any boost in support from that would likely be short-lived.

A closer look at the data reveals that Bush's recent approval ratings were higher because of independents' more positive evaluations, which have now returned to their late June levels. Republicans' and Democrats' evaluations of Bush have been more stable in recent weeks.

The more negative evaluation of Bush is not confined to his approval rating. Just 48% of Americans now say they have a favorable opinion of him, while 50% have an unfavorable view. Bush's previous low favorable rating was 51%, measured twice last October (Bush also had a 51% favorable rating in a September 2000 poll of registered voters).

Bush's prior favorable rating -- from April -- was 54%. At that time, he had a 48% job approval rating.

Even while Bush's ratings are falling, other core Gallup ratings show more stability.

For example, 40% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the country, and 58% are dissatisfied. In early July, 42% were satisfied and 57% dissatisfied.

Ratings of the national economy also show little change. In early July, 36% said economic conditions were excellent or good and 18% said poor. Thirty-five percent said the economy was getting better and 54% said worse. Now, 32% rate the economy as excellent or good (23% as poor) and 35% say it is getting better and 53% say getting worse.

While the Iraq war could be responsible the general descent into the mid-to-high 40% approval range for Bush over the last two years, there has been little change in the public's views on Iraq in recent polls to suggest it is behind Bush's current rating. The July 22-24 poll showed fewer Americans (46%) calling the war in Iraq "a mistake" than did so in June (53%).

Democrats Faring Better

Recent Gallup Polls have shown growing positive momentum for the Democratic Party, even while Bush's ratings were somewhat higher. For example, the July 22-24 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll found 52% of Americans rating the Democratic Party favorably, while just 46% give a favorable rating to the Republican Party. When the question was last asked in April, each party was rated favorably by 50% of Americans.

Additionally, Gallup has observed a consistent edge for the Democrats in terms of national party identification in its recent polls. In the current poll, 33% say they are Democrats, 28% Republicans, and 37% independents. This is the fourth consecutive poll in which Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in Gallup Polls.

Party Identification, Recent Gallup Polls

	% Democrat	% Republican	% Independent

July 25-28	33	28	37
July 22-24	36	32	31
July 7-10	35	30	33
June 29-30	38	29	31

For comparison's sake, the party identification averages were evenly divided in Gallup Polls conducted in the first half of 2005 (34% Republican and 33% Democratic) and in all of 2004 (34% Republican and 34% Democratic).

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,010 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 25-28, 2005. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
	%	%	%
2005
(NA) 2005 Jul 25-28	44	51	5
(NA) 2005 Jul 22-24	49	48	3
(NA) 2005 Jul 7-10	49	48	3
(NA) 2005 Jun 29-30	46	51	3
(NA) 2005 Jun 24-26	45	53	2
(NA) 2005 Jun 16-19	47	51	2
(NA) 2005 Jun 6-8	47	49	4
(NA) 2005 May 23-26	48	47	5
(NA) 2005 May 20-22	46	50	4
(NA) 2005 May 2-5	50	45	5
(NA) 2005 Apr 29-May 1	48	49	3
(NA) 2005 Apr 18-21	48	49	3
(NA) 2005 Apr 4-7	50	45	5
(NA) 2005 Apr 1-2	48	48	4
(NA) 2005 Mar 21-23	45	49	6
(NA) 2005 Mar 18-20	52	44	4
(NA) 2005 Mar 7-10	52	44	4
(NA) 2005 Feb 25-26	52	45	3
(NA) 2005 Feb 21-24	51	45	4
(NA) 2005 Feb 7-10	49	48	3
(NA) 2005 Feb 4-6	57	40	3
(NA) 2005 Jan 14-16	51	46	3
(NA) 2005 Jan 7-9	52	44	4
(NA) 2005 Jan 3-5	52	44	4
2004
(NA) 2004 Dec 17-19	49	46	5
(NA) 2004 Dec 5-8	53	44	3
(NA) 2004 Nov 19-21	55	42	3
(NA) 2004 Nov 7-10	53	44	3
(NA) 2004 Oct 29-31	48	47	5
(NA) 2004 Oct 22-24	51	46	3
(NA) 2004 Oct 14-16	51	47	2
(NA) 2004 Oct 11-14	48	49	3
(NA) 2004 Oct 9-10	47	49	4
(NA) 2004 Oct 1-3	50	48	2
(NA) 2004 Sep 24-26	54	44	2
(NA) 2004 Sep 13-15	52	45	3
(NA) 2004 Sep 3-5	52	46	2
(NA) 2004 Aug 23-25	49	47	4
(NA) 2004 Aug 9-11	51	46	3
(NA) 2004 Jul 30-Aug 1	48	49	3
(NA) 2004 Jul 19-21	49	47	4
(NA) 2004 Jul 8-11	47	49	4
(NA) 2004 Jun 21-23	48	49	3
(NA) 2004 Jun 3-6	49	49	2
(NA) 2004 May 21-23	47	49	4
(NA) 2004 May 7-9	46	51	3
(NA) 2004 May 2-4	49	48	3
(NA) 2004 Apr 16-18	52	45	3
(NA) 2004 Apr 5-8	52	45	3
(NA) 2004 Mar 26-28	53	44	3
(NA) 2004 Mar 8-11	50	47	3
(NA) 2004 Mar 5-7	49	48	3
(NA) 2004 Feb 16-17	51	46	3
(NA) 2004 Feb 9-12	51	46	3
(NA) 2004 Feb 6-8	52	44	4
(NA) 2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	49	48	3
(NA) 2004 Jan 12-15	53	44	3
(NA) 2004 Jan 9-11	59	38	3
(NA) 2004 Jan 2-5	60	35	5
2003
(NA) 2003 Dec 15-16	63	34	3
(NA) 2003 Dec 11-14	56	41	3
(NA) 2003 Dec 5-7	55	43	2
(NA) 2003 Nov 14-16	50	47	3
(NA) 2003 Nov 10-12	51	45	4
(NA) 2003 Nov 3-5	54	43	3
(NA) 2003 Oct 24-26	53	42	5
(NA) 2003 Oct 10-12	56	40	4
(NA) 2003 Oct 6-8	55	42	3
(NA) 2003 Sep 19-21	50	47	3
(NA) 2003 Sep 8-10	52	43	5
(NA) 2003 Aug 25-26	59	37	4
(NA) 2003 Aug 4-6	60	36	4
(NA) 2003 Jul 25-27	58	38	4
(NA) 2003 Jul 18-20	59	38	3
(NA) 2003 Jul 7-9	62	34	4
(NA) 2003 Jun 27-29	61	36	3
(NA) 2003 Jun 12-15	63	33	4
(NA) 2003 Jun 9-10	62	34	4
(NA) 2003 May 30-Jun 1	64	32	4
(NA) 2003 May 19-21	66	30	4
(NA) 2003 May 5-7	69	28	3
(NA) 2003 Apr 22-23	70	26	4
(NA) 2003 Apr 14-16	71	24	5
(NA) 2003 Apr 7-9	69	26	5
(NA) 2003 Apr 5-6	70	27	3
(NA) 2003 Mar 29-30	71	26	3
(NA) 2003 Mar 24-25	69	27	4
(NA) 2003 Mar 22-23	71	25	4
(NA) 2003 Mar 14-15	58	38	4
(NA) 2003 Mar 3-5	57	37	6
(NA) 2003 Feb 24-26	57	37	6
(NA) 2003 Feb 17-19	58	37	5
(NA) 2003 Feb 7-9	61	34	5
(NA) 2003 Feb 3-6	59	35	6
(NA) 2003 Jan 31-Feb 2	61	35	4
(NA) 2003 Jan 23-25	60	36	4
(NA) 2003 Jan 20-22	58	36	6
(NA) 2003 Jan 13-16	61	34	5
(NA) 2003 Jan 10-12	58	37	5
(NA) 2003 Jan 3-5	63	32	5
2002
(NA) 2002 Dec 19-22	61	32	7
(NA) 2002 Dec 16-17	63	33	4
(NA) 2002 Dec 9-10	63	32	5
(NA) 2002 Dec 5-8	64	29	7
(NA) 2002 Nov 22-24	65	28	7
(NA) 2002 Nov 11-14	66	26	8
(NA) 2002 Nov 8-10	68	27	5
(NA) 2002 Oct 31-Nov 3	63	29	8
(NA) 2002 Oct 21-22	67	28	5
(NA) 2002 Oct 14-17	62	31	7
(NA) 2002 Oct 3-6	67	28	5
(NA) 2002 Sep 23-26	68	26	6
(NA) 2002 Sep 20-22	66	30	4
(NA) 2002 Sep 13-16	70	26	4
(NA) 2002 Sep 5-8	66	30	4
(NA) 2002 Sep 2-4	66	29	5
(NA) 2002 Aug 19-21	65	28	7
(NA) 2002 Aug 5-8	68	26	6
(NA) 2002 Jul 29-31	71	23	6
(NA) 2002 Jul 26-28	69	26	5
(NA) 2002 Jul 22-24	69	24	7
(NA) 2002 Jul 9-11	73	21	6
(NA) 2002 Jul 5-8	76	18	6
(NA) 2002 Jun 28-30	76	19	5
(NA) 2002 Jun 21-23	73	21	6
(NA) 2002 Jun 17-19	74	20	6
(NA) 2002 Jun 7-8	74	18	8
(NA) 2002 Jun 3-6	70	23	7
(NA) 2002 May 28-29	77	17	6
(NA) 2002 May 20-22	76	17	7
(NA) 2002 May 6-9	76	19	5
(NA) 2002 Apr 29-May 1	77	20	3
(NA) 2002 Apr 22-24	77	17	6
(NA) 2002 Apr 8-11	75	20	5
(NA) 2002 Apr 5-7	76	19	5
(NA) 2002 Mar 22-24	79	17	4
(NA) 2002 Mar 18-20	79	16	5
(NA) 2002 Mar 8-9	80	14	6
(NA) 2002 Mar 4-7	77	18	5
(NA) 2002 Mar 1-3	81	14	5
(NA) 2002 Feb 8-10	82	14	4
(NA) 2002 Feb 4-6	82	14	4
(NA) 2002 Jan 25-27	84	13	3
(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14	83	13	4
(NA) 2002 Jan 7-9	84	12	4
2001
(NA) 2001 Dec 14-16	86	11	3
(NA) 2001 Dec 6-9	86	10	4
(NA) 2001 Nov 26-27	87	8	5
(NA) 2001 Nov 8-11	87	9	4
(NA) 2001 Nov 2-4	87	9	4
(NA) 2001 Oct 19-21	88	9	3
(NA) 2001 Oct 11-14	89	8	3
(NA) 2001 Oct 5-6	87	10	3
(NA) 2001 Sep 21-22	90	6	4
(NA) 2001 Sep 14-15	86	10	4
(NA) 2001 Sep 7-10	51	39	10
(NA) 2001 Aug 24-26	55	36	9
(NA) 2001 Aug 16-19	57	34	9
(NA) 2001 Aug 10-12	57	35	8
(NA) 2001 Aug 3-5	55	35	10
(NA) 2001 Jul 19-22	56	33	11
(NA) 2001 Jul 10-11	57	35	8
(NA) 2001 Jun 28-Jul 1	52	34	14
(NA) 2001 Jun 11-17	55	33	12
(NA) 2001 Jun 8-10	55	35	10
(NA) 2001 May 18-20	56	36	8
(NA) 2001 May 10-14	56	31	13
(NA) 2001 May 7-9	53	33	14
(NA) 2001 Apr 20-22	62	29	9
(NA) 2001 Apr 6-8	59	30	11
(NA) 2001 Mar 26-28	53	29	18
(NA) 2001 Mar 9-11	58	29	13
(NA) 2001 Mar 5-7	63	22	15
(NA) 2001 Feb 19-21	62	21	17
(NA) 2001 Feb 9-11	57	25	18
(NA) 2001 Feb 1-4	57	25	18

19a. Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people who were in the news this year. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her.

George W. Bush
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Never heard of	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2005 July 22-25	48	50	--	2
2005 Apr 1-2	54	45	--	1
2005 Feb 25-27	56	42	--	2
2005 Feb 4-6	59	39	--	2
2004 Nov 19-21	60	39	--	1
2004 Oct 29-31	51	46	--	3
2004 Oct 22-24	53	44	--	3
2004 Oct 14-16	55	44	--	1
2004 Oct 9-10	51	46	--	3
2004 Oct 1-3	53	45	--	2
2004 Sep 13-15	55	44	--	1
2004 Sep 3-5	55	44	--	1
2004 Aug 23-25	54	44	--	2
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1	52	46	--	2
2004 Jul 19-21	52	46	--	2
2004 Jul 8-11	52	46	--	2
2004 Jun 21-23	53	45	--	2
2004 Apr 16-18	56	42	--	2
2004 Mar 26-28	57	41	--	2
2004 Feb 16-17	56	42	--	2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	52	47	--	1
2004 Jan 2-5	65	35	--	*
2003 Oct 6-8	60	39	--	1
2003 Jun 27-29	65	34	--	1
2003 Jun 9-10	66	33	--	1
2003 Jan 31-Feb 2	68	32	--	*
2002 Dec 16-17	68	30	--	2
2002 Sep 23-26	70	28	--	2
2002 Jul 26-28	71	26	--	3
2002 May 20-22	80	18	--	2
2002 Apr 29-May 1	79	19	--	2
2002 Jan 11-14	83	15	--	2
2001 Nov 26-27	87	11	--	2
2001 Aug 3-5	60	35	1	4
2001 Jun 8-10	62	36	*	2
2001 Apr 20-22	65	32	0	3
2001 Mar 9-11	63	32	0	5
2001 Mar 5-7	69	28	*	3
2001 Feb 19-21	67	27	*	6
2001 Feb 1-4	64	33	*	3
2001 Jan 15-16	62	36	*	2
2000 Dec 15-17	59	36	1	4
2000 Dec 2-4	56	40	*	4
2000 Nov 13-15	53	43	*	4
2000 Nov 4-5 ^	55	39	*	6
2000 Oct 24-26 ^	62	33	*	5
2000 Oct 23-25 ^	60	35	*	5
2000 Oct 20-22 ^	59	37	*	4
2000 Oct 5-7 ^	58	36	*	6
2000 Sep 28-30 ^	55	38	0	7
2000 Sep 15-17^	51	41	1	7
2000 Aug 18-19	60	34	*	6
2000 Aug 4-5	67	28	*	5
2000 Jul 25-26	63	31	*	6
2000 Jul 14-16	64	29	*	7
2000 Jun 23-25	60	31	0	9
2000 Jun 6-7	64	29	0	7
2000 Apr 28-30	61	33	*	6
2000 Mar 10-12	63	32	*	5
2000 Feb 25-27	57	35	1	7
2000 Feb 20-21	58	35	*	7
2000 Feb 4-6	63	31	0	6
2000 Jan 17-19	66	26	*	8
1999 Dec 9-12	68	25	1	6
1999 Oct 21-24	71	21	1	7
1999 Oct 8-10	70	25	1	4
1999 Sept 23-26	71	22	1	6
1999 Aug 16-18	68	21	1	10
1999 June 25-27	69	16	4	11
1999 Apr 13-14	73	15	3	9
1999 Feb 19-21	69	12	5	14

^Based on registered voters

Bush Approval at 44%

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