Bush Faces Challenges Tonight As He Makes Case for Tax Cut Plan

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

Princeton NJ -- President George W. Bush makes his first nationally televised address to a joint session of Congress tonight. The address will focus on Bush's proposed budget plan, with a heavy emphasis on his proposed 1.6 trillion dollar tax cut plan. A review of recent Gallup polling suggests that, while Bush has earned positive public reviews for his first month as president, he faces a number of challenges in selling his tax cut plan to the people. Americans are generally favorable towards the idea of a tax cut, but they are also sensitive to the fact that it might draw needed money away from high priority government programs. Americans also tend to believe that Bush's plan as now constituted would favor the rich and, when given the choice, they favor targeted tax cuts as least as much as, if not or more than, Bush's idea of an across-the-board cut. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the public does not seem to be in any hurry to see a tax cut passed; cutting taxes ranks as one of the lower priorities of all issues the new Bush administration faces.

Bush's Job Approval, Favorability Ratings are Robust
One asset Bush carries into the speech tonight is the general good will he enjoys from the American people. The most recent Gallup Poll, conducted February 19-21, finds that 67% of Americans hold a favorable view of the new president, and that his job approval rating is 62%, up from the 57% found in two Gallup polls of early to mid-February. The 62% is above the overall average for job approval for all presidents Gallup has measured since World War II. It is also higher than Clinton's and Reagan's first February job approval ratings, and about equal to the ratings for Bush's father, George H.W. Bush, and for Richard Nixon. Only Jimmy Carter, John F. Kennedy, and Dwight Eisenhower had higher job approval ratings at this stage of their presidencies.

February Approval Ratings OF PRESIDENTS WHO FIRST ASSUMED OFFICE AFTER BEING ELECTED* Do you approve or disapprove of the way [NAME] is handling his job as president?
		Initial Approval Rating
President	Date of Mid-February Rating	Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
		%	%	%
George W. Bush	2001, Feb 19-21	62	21	18
Bill Clinton	1993, Feb 12-14	51	34	15
George H.W. Bush	1989, Feb 28	63	13
Ronald Reagan	1981, Feb 13	55	18
Jimmy Carter	1977, Feb 18	71	9
Richard M. Nixon	1969, Feb 20	60	6
John F. Kennedy	1961, Feb 10-15	72	6
Dwight D. Eisenhower	1953, Feb 22	67	8
*Ratings of vice presidents who became president when the previous president died are not included. This includes Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, and Gerald Ford. Franklin Roosevelt's first approval rating was not taken until 1938, more than five years after he first assumed the presidency.

Tax Cuts
There is little question that selling his plan for a 10-year, 1.6 trillion dollar tax cut will be the primary focus of Bush's Tuesday night speech.

Gallup has asked the public directly about Bush's tax cut plan three times -- in early January, in early to mid-February, and in the most recent February 19-21 poll. In each instance, the question used the description "the federal income tax cuts George W. Bush has proposed" without further specification or elaboration, and without giving alternatives.

Here are the results:

Based on what you have read or heard, do you favor or oppose the federal income tax cuts President Bush has proposed?

 

		Favor	Oppose	No opinion
2001 Feb 19-21		53%	30	17
2001 Feb 9-11		56%	34	10
2001 Jan 5-7 ^		52%	33	15
^	WORDING: Based on what you have read or heard, do you favor or oppose the federal income tax cuts George W. Bush has proposed?

These results appear generally positive for Bush. Slightly more than a majority of Americans support his tax cuts. Perhaps even more importantly for the president, the level of opposition to the idea of the tax cuts at this stage is relatively low -- with just about a third of Americans opposed (with the rest yet to make up their minds). This means that Bush goes into his speech with a 23% net positive advantage, when those who favor his tax cuts are compared to those who oppose.

Tax Cut Support May be Thin
But, even as the public tends to support his plan in the abstract, an analysis of other Gallup polls conducted over the past several months suggests that there are a number of challenges Bush faces in the attempt to see his plan through to passage into law.

Our polling suggests that support for tax cuts is sharply reduced if alternative uses of the money are put forth, that Bush's across-the-board cut has less support than the type of targeted cuts favored by the Democrats, that tax cuts in general are a low priority for Americans, and that a good deal of the current support comes directly from those already solidly in Bush's camp. In short, it would appear that, as the plan is hashed out in the months ahead, opponents of the tax cut plan outlined by Bush may find support if they are able to reach the public with their arguments.

The following are details on four potential hurdles Bush must overcome in pushing his tax cut forward to the American people.

1. Tax cuts are not Americans' highest priority

One rather consistent finding over the past 12 to 18 months is the degree to which Americans rate other issues and challenges higher than tax cuts. In a February 9-11, 2001 Gallup poll, the public was asked to rate each of six different priorities for the Bush administration. As can be seen, "cutting federal income taxes" comes in dead last.

How important is it that the Bush administration does each of the following? Is it a top priority, high priority, low priority, or not a priority at all? [RANDOM ORDER]

TOP/HIGH PRIORITY SUMMARY TABLE

 

	Top priority	High priority	Top/High priority
	%	%	%
Improving education	49	44	93
Keeping America prosperous	43	50	93
Dealing with the energy problems facing the nation	38	48	86
Keeping the federal budget balanced	36	50	86
Providing military security for the country	36	46	82
Cutting federal income taxes	28	39	67

One of the reasons for this lower priority may be that Americans don't see that a tax cut would make a tremendous amount of difference for them personally.

The median amount of money Americans think they would save under a Bush plan is $400, and when asked to characterize the impact of a Bush tax cut on their personal lives, only 18% say that it would make a "big" differences, while another 26% say it would make "some" difference. Slightly over half of all Americans say that the tax cut plan would make only a little or no difference at all.

2. Americans, when given a choice, come down in favor other uses for any excess federal money

Previous polling has consistently shown that support for using excess federal monies for tax cuts drops when the alternative of spending that money on specific government programs is introduced. For example, in one such test in 1999, 64% of those interviewed in a Gallup poll said they favored using the budget surplus to cut taxes when the alterative was spending it on other "government programs." But, when those other programs were specified as "education, defense, Medicare," support for spending the surplus on taxes when down to 33% and for the specific programs up to 61%.

Furthermore, in a mid-February, 2001 Gallup poll, 57% of Americans said that a Bush tax cut plan would "take money away that is needed to protect Social Security" and 53% said that it would "cause a federal budget deficit." These responses underscore Americans' apparent openness to those who oppose the current constitution of the plan, and the argument they make -- that it would take money away from other, important uses.

3. Even if there is to be a tax cut, Americans favor the type of targeted cuts proposed by the Democrats at least as much as they do the across-the-board cuts favored by Bush

Americans feel that a Bush tax cut plan would generally favor the wealthy, as opponents have charged. Perhaps as a result, the public is more open to the idea of targeted tax cuts rather than the across-the-board plan outlined by the president.

Here is the result of a recent Gallup poll that gave Americans choices between broad, across-the-board tax cuts and two different types of targeted cuts:

Which of the following would you prefer to see Congress pass next year -- [ROTATED: broad, across-the-board tax cuts (or) targeted tax cuts to alleviate specific problems (or) no tax cuts at all]?

[BASED ON -- 506 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; ± 5 PCT. PTS.]

 

	Broad, across-the-board	Alleviate specific problems	No tax cuts	MIXED/ NEITHER (vol.)	No opinion
2000 Sep 11-13	41%	44	10	1	4

Which of the following would you prefer to see Congress pass next year -- [ROTATED: broad, across-the-board tax cuts (or) targeted tax cuts benefiting mostly those making less than $70,000 a year (or) no tax cuts at all]?

[BASED ON -- 502 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B; ± 5 PCT. PTS.]

 

	Broad, across-the-board	Those making less than $70,000 a year	No tax cuts	MIXED/ NEITHER (vol.)	No opinion
2000 Sep 11-13	33%	51	14	*	2

Note that support is particularly high when the alternative to across-the-board cuts is described as cuts for "those making less than $70,000 a year." Indeed, another recent Gallup poll finds that a very large majority, 75%, of Americans say that it is either somewhat or very likely that a Bush tax cut plan would "mostly benefit the rich," which again suggests the degree to which Americans are open to changes in the Bush plan that would more evenly distribute the cuts across income tax groups.

4. Strongest support for tax cuts comes from the already converted

Perhaps not surprisingly, the most support for Bush's tax cut plan comes from Republicans, conservatives and those who already approve of the job Bush is doing as president. Bush's Tuesday night speech will clearly have to address some of the more skeptical groups if the plan is to sustain support as the it works its way through Congress

 

FAVOR OR OPPOSE BUSH'S PROPOSED TAX CUTS?
	Favor	Oppose	Don't Know
	%	%	%
TOTAL SAMPLE	53	30	17
Republicans	79	6	15
Independents	48	30	22
Democrats	27	58	15
Conservatives	71	17	12
Moderates	46	35	19
Liberals	34	48	18
Approve of Bush	72	15	13
Disapprove of Bush	15	77	8

Survey Methods

Current results from The Gallup Poll are based on telephone interviews with 1,016 national adults, aged 18+, conducted February 19-21, 2001. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.