Americans Generally Favor Alito Appointment

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The American public generally supports President George W. Bush's third nominee to replace Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. By a 2-to-1 margin, 50% to 25%, Americans say the Senate should vote to confirm Judge Samuel Alito. Another 25% of Americans have no opinion about his confirmation -- not atypical for public attitudes about Supreme Court nominees.

This 50% support for Alito contrasts with the more restrained support received by the previous nominee, White House counsel Harriet Miers, before she withdrew her name amid growing controversy over her candidacy. In Gallup's initial reading on Miers, only 44% of Americans said she should be confirmed, while 36% disagreed.

Public support for Alito is only slightly less favorable than that for Judge John Roberts when Bush initially named him to succeed the retiring Justice O'Connor.

Reaction to Alito differs by party, although not overwhelmingly so. While the vast majority of Republicans (73%) favor Alito's confirmation, fewer than half of Democrats (40%) oppose it. In fact, by a 40% to 35% margin, only a slight plurality of Democrats oppose Alito's confirmation.

The results are similar according to self-described ideology, although perhaps a bit starker. Those identifying themselves as politically conservative favor Alito's confirmation by a margin of 75% to 6%. Those identifying themselves as liberals oppose it by a margin of 49% to 28%.

Alito v. Miers and Roberts

There has been about a 40-point gap between Republicans and Democrats in their initial support levels for each of the three Supreme Court nominees Bush has put forth this year -- Alito, Miers, and Roberts. In each case, a majority of Republicans have favored the confirmation, but to varying degrees.

At the same time, differences in the overall level of public support for each nominee reflect important distinctions in the support levels among Democrats, with a plurality of Democrats supporting Roberts, Democrats closely divided on Alito, and generally opposing Miers.

In Miers' case, 73% of Republicans thought she should be confirmed while 16% disagreed. Democrats reacted quite differently, with 27% favoring her confirmation and 53% opposing it.

In Roberts' case, the vast majority of Republicans (82%) wanted to see him confirmed; only 5% disagreed. This higher level of support (as compared with Miers) is also seen with Democrats, among whom the plurality (42%) favored his confirmation.

Historical Comparisons

Support for Alito's nomination puts him more in the company of Roberts, Ruth Bader Ginsburg (nominated by Bill Clinton in 1993), and Clarence Thomas (nominated by George H.W. Bush in 1991) -- all of whom were ultimately confirmed by the U.S. Senate -- than it does in the category of unsuccessful nominees such as Miers and Robert Bork (nominated by Ronald Reagan in 1987).

Alito's 50% support from the general public compares with 31% for Bork, 44% for Miers, 52% for Thomas, 53% for Ginsburg, and 59% for Roberts.

When factoring in the percentage who did not want to see each of these nominees confirmed, the "net support" for Alito -- as was true for Ginsburg, Roberts, and Thomas -- is strongly positive, although Alito is at the bottom of the pack. By contrast, the "net support" for Miers and Bork (whose nomination was rejected by the U.S. Senate) was only in the single digits.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,011 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Nov. 7-10, 2005. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

46. As you may know, Samuel Alito is the federal judge nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Alito serving on the Supreme Court, or not?

Trends for Comparison:

Harriet Miers: As you may know, Harriet Miers is the person nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Miers serving on the Supreme Court, or not?

John Roberts: As you may know, John Roberts is a federal judge who has been nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Roberts serving on the Supreme Court, or not?

Ruth Bader Ginsburg: Ruth Bader Ginsburg is a federal judge who has been nominated by President Clinton to serve on the United States Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Ginsburg serving on the Supreme Court, or not?

Clarence Thomas:Clarence Thomas is the federal judge nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Clarence Thomas serving on the Supreme Court, or not?

Robert Bork: Robert Bork is a federal judge who has been nominated by President Reagan to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Bork serving on the U.S. Supreme Court, or not?