Osama bin Laden
If you ever had doubts about the importance of American public opinion, then the extraordinary release last week of an audiotape whose voice the CIA confirmed to be that of Osama bin Laden should have dispelled them. The tape included a specific reference to polls, as follows (Associated Press translation): "But I plan to speak about the repeated errors your President Bush has committed in comments on the results of your polls that show an overwhelming majority of you want the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. … And so to return to the issue, I say that results of polls please those who are sensible, and Bush's opposition to them is a mistake."
As one person commented to me, "Even in a cave, Osama bin Laden follows the polls."
I posted an analysis of the validity of bin Laden's comments on galluppoll.com last week. It's basically correct to say that an overwhelming majority of Americans want American troops withdrawn from Iraq -- eventually. For that matter, the Bush administration does, too. But it's incorrect to infer that a majority of Americans want troops out of Iraq immediately. Americans appear to be willing to wait a while, allowing troops to be withdrawn slowly as Iraqis take over defense and police duties.
I also don't think that President Bush has ignored the polls, as might be inferred from the comments on the audiotape. Most observers assume that the major public relations campaign the administration waged late last year -- including numerous Bush speeches and major changes in tone -- was based primarily on the desire to address concerns about Iraq the public expressed in the polls. (That campaign did appear to have arrested Bush's lower poll ratings in early November, but the president's current 43% approval rating is not strong; it is below the president's overall average for last year, and almost 10 points lower than his approval rating at the beginning of 2005.)
Other Polling References
A couple of other references to polls in the media last week deserve comment.
Host Chris Mathews said the following on the MSNBC program Hardball: "Well why do only 2% of African-Americans tell pollsters they're Republicans now? That's the lowest I can ever remember it."
Is that right? Not according to our data. Gallup's analysis of more than 40,000 interviews conducted in 2005, including more than 3,500 with blacks, shows that between 7% and 13% of blacks in the United States identify as Republicans.
There were several references last week in the media to public opinion about doctor-assistant suicide. Here are two:
Brian Todd, CNN correspondent on The Situation Room: "Wolf, this is an issue that according to a recent poll divides Americans right in half."
Elizabeth Vargas, ABC News World News Tonight anchor: "Good evening. We begin with a Supreme Court ruling that will affect families in some of the most private moments. Today, the high court upheld Oregon's doctor-assisted suicide law, rejecting a challenge from the Bush administration. There is disappointment in the White House, tonight. But the fight is not over. Americans are sharply divided over whether doctors should be allowed to help end lives. A recent survey found 46% in favor of physician-assisted suicide, 45% opposed."
This reporter and this anchor are making what seems like pretty definitive assertions about the country's views on doctor-assisted suicide. Are they right?
Not really. Public opinion on doctor-assisted suicide is not nearly so clear-cut. The poll question to which I think they are referring was worded as follows: "In some states, it's legal for doctors to prescribe lethal doses of drugs that a terminally ill patient could use themselves to commit suicide. Do you approve or disapprove of laws that let doctors assist patients who want to end their lives this way?" The results -- from a Nov. 9-27, 2005, Pew Research Center poll -- show that 46% approve and 45% disapprove.
But a Gallup Poll question asked last May found much higher levels of support. This Gallup question was phrased: "When a person has a disease that cannot be cured, do you think doctors should be allowed by law to end the patient's life by some painless means if the patient and his family request it?" The results showed 75% in favor, with 24% opposed.
What's the difference here? The Pew question used the terms "lethal" and "suicide" and also asserted that doctors would be assisting patients. The Gallup question did not use these emotionally charged words, included the phrase "painless," and asserted that the doctor would be doing the deed, not assisting the patient.
Another Gallup question asked last May included the phrase "assist the patient to commit suicide" (instead of "end the patient's life by some painless means") and showed that support dropped to 58%.
All of this shows that Americans are very sensitive to how this issue is presented to them. Apparently a question that stresses that the patient is committing suicide with only a doctor's assistance gets lower support than a question that stresses the "end the patient's life" and that the doctor would be doing it rather than assisting the patient.
But there's a bigger point here. As is often the case,
there is no one specific "set in stone" level of support for
this issue among the American people. Discussions of this
issue should stress that attitudes toward the issue are still in
flux, and that the American public's level of support depends
to a significant degree on just how the procedure and process is
explained.
Bush Job Approval
As noted in Jeff Jones' story on the galluppoll.com Web site on Tuesday, Bush's job approval rating is now at 43% for the fourth poll in a row, extending back to Dec. 19-22. While it's not unusual for job approval ratings to be steady over a period of time, it is unusual for them to be precisely the same in poll after poll. Even if we assume that the underlying job approval percentage in the general population stays the same over the period of a month, statistically, one would expect that four different random samples taken from that population would vary by at least a few points. In this situation, they haven't.
Of course, there is more to this period of stability than just statistical interest. There are many different news events at the moment that in theory could affect a president's ratings -- the situation in Iraq, the Alito nomination, the wiretapping reports, Iraq, the lobbying scandal, the big drop in the stock market on Friday, and so forth. It's quite fascinating to find that the American public's assessment of Bush leadership throughout all of this hasn't budged.
The State of the Union address on Jan. 31 will be the next major planned event that might move Bush's numbers. We'll see what happens after the dust settles at the end of next week.
Alito
Democrats have been hoping that public opinion would shift against Bush nominee Samuel Alito after the Senate Judiciary hearings began a couple of weeks ago. Our new weekend CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll suggests that this didn't happen. Support for Alito's confirmation has increased five points since before the Senate hearing (to 54%). Opposition stayed constant at 30%, while the "don't knows" dropped by five points.
It's going to be difficult for Democratic senators to argue that they are representing majority opinion if they stall on the confirmation. Plus, the poll shows that, by a 10-point margin, Americans believe Senate Democrats would not be justified in using a filibuster to prevent an up-or-down vote on the Alito nomination.
The only positive note of sorts for those opposing Alito: His support levels are lower than those of John Roberts, who had up to 60% "vote in favor" by mid-September 2005.