There's been a good deal of news coverage of the Arabic-language network Al-Jazeera's release Thursday of an audiotape that is reported to be the voice of Osama bin Laden. Bin Laden made a number of statements about terrorist attacks and the U.S. presence in Iraq. Of particular interest was his reference to unspecified U.S. opinion polls.
The references to American public opinion came across slightly differently in various translations:
- CNN.com: "Your President Bush has been misleading you. He has lied when he said that the people are behind him. Opinion polls have indicated that the overwhelming majority of you want him to pull the troops out of our land."
- Washingtonpost.com: "But what triggered my desire to talk to you is the continuous deliberate misinformation given by your President Bush, when it comes to polls made in your home country which reveal that the majority of your people are willing to withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq."
- News.bbc.co.uk: "However, what prompted me to speak are the repeated fallacies of your President Bush in his comment on the outcome of U.S. opinion polls, which indicated that the overwhelming majority of you want the withdrawal of the forces from Iraq."
An assessment of bin Laden's reference to U.S. public opinion is complex. For one thing, the statement itself was not highly specific -- and given that it was translated from Arabic into several different English versions, it's probably wise to be careful in attributing too much significance to specific words and phrases.
Nevertheless, all translations seem to agree that bin Laden referred to either an "overwhelming majority" or "majority" of Americans, and then referred to the desired goal of either pulling "... the troops out of our land" or "... withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq," or "... the withdrawal of the forces from Iraq." In short, bin Laden is asserting that the majority of Americans want U.S. troops to be withdrawn from Iraq.
The idea that the majority of the American public wants U.S. troops withdrawn from Iraq -- eventually -- is beyond dispute. The administration itself, of course, would argue that U.S. troops should eventually be withdrawn, and that is already happening to a limited degree. As the White House Web site states:
With more Iraqi Security Forces demonstrating the capabilities needed to achieve victory, American commanders have determined that combat forces can decrease from 17 to 15 brigades by the spring of 2006. This adjustment will result in a net decrease of several thousand troops below the pre-election baseline of 138,000. This comes in addition to the reduction of about 20,000 troops in Iraq largely to assist with election security. If Iraqis continue to make security and political progress, the United States expects to discuss with Iraq's new government further possible adjustments. All the President's decisions will be based upon conditions on the ground -- not artificial timetables set by politicians in Washington.
A December CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll found that 26% of Americans want all U.S. troops withdrawn from Iraq, another 38% said some troops should be withdrawn, but not all, 25% said troop levels should be kept as they are now, and 9% said more troops should be sent.
That means 64% of Americans want at least some troops to be withdrawn, but only 26% want all troops to be withdrawn.
Other polling organizations have provided respondents with binary choices about troop withdrawal. For example, a CBS News poll from early January asked whether troops should stay in Iraq "as long as it takes to make sure Iraq is a stable democracy even if it takes a long time" versus "U.S. troops leave Iraq as soon as possible, even if Iraq is not completely stable." A Pew Research Center poll, conducted at about the same time, asked whether troops should stay "until the situation has stabilized" versus being brought " home as soon as possible." These polls found that 44% (CBS News) and 48% (Pew Research Center) opted for immediate withdrawal when faced with the either/or choices.
Several polls have asked more generally about the general concept of a timetable for withdrawal, finding between 49% and 54% who say yes. One of these -- a Jan. 6-8 Gallup Poll -- followed up this general timetable question and asked those who said a timetable should be set whether the United States should withdraw its troops within six months, or keep them there longer than that. The results showed that only about 28% of Americans both want a timetable to be set and also want that timetable to dictate that troops be withdrawn within six months. Twenty-one percent say troops should stay longer than six months, and the rest either want no timetable or have no opinion.
The bottom line: Most polling shows that less than half of Americans want troops to be withdrawn from Iraq as soon as possible. While about half of Americans will agree that a timetable should be set for withdrawal, a Gallup Poll showed that only about 3 in 10 Americans want a timetable that specifies withdrawal within six months.
So the accuracy of bin Laden's claims about American public opinion is, in reality, difficult to resolve, in part depending on how the Arabic is translated. Yes, a majority of Americans want U.S. troops in Iraq to be withdrawn -- eventually. But if the assertion on the tape is construed to imply that a majority of Americans want all troops to be withdrawn from Iraq immediately, then the tape is incorrect.
