Americans Perceive Bush Presidency More As Failure Than Success

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush's speech tonight is billed as focusing on the state of the "Union," not his presidency per se. But there is no doubt that the administration views the occasion as an opportunity to advance Bush's agenda and bolster the standing of the president in the eyes of the public as much as a chance to neutrally evaluate the state of the nation.

Such a bolstering of Bush's standing is clearly needed. Recent polling by Gallup shows that a majority of Americans consider the Bush presidency a failure so far. That's true both when the public is asked to evaluate his entire first five years in office and just his presidency since his second term began a year ago.

Since the start of 2001 when George W. Bush became president, in general, would you say his presidency has been a success or failure?

Since the start of 2005, when George W. Bush began his second term as president, would you say his second term in office has been a success or failure?

Americans are somewhat more positive when asked about Bush's entire term in office than they are when asked about his second term only. This no doubt reflects memories of the months immediately after the 9/11 terrorist attacks when Bush received some of the highest job approval ratings in Gallup history.

Still, whatever the time frame, more than half of Americans believe his presidency has been a failure so far.

Gallup asked this same question a number of times during President Bill Clinton's administration.

Since the start of 1993 when Bill Clinton became president, in general, would you say his presidency has been a success or a failure?

Although Clinton received an evaluation in December 1994 which was similar to what Bush receives now (when Americans are asked to evaluate the entire Bush presidency), the data clearly show that Clinton received much higher marks on this question throughout his second term. At one point in January 1999, in fact, more than 8 in 10 Americans said that the Clinton administration had been a success. (This is noteworthy, of course, as this measurement came at a time when Clinton had been impeached by the House of Representatives and was awaiting his verdict from the U.S. Senate. Many analysts agree that the high-octane economy in the late 1990s was the dominant reason Clinton not only survived, but did well while going through the impeachment process.)

More Specifics

Recent Gallup polling asked Americans to rate Bush on a series of issues and characteristics. The measurement of his performance on issue dimensions is based on a classic "approve"/"disapprove" scale. The measurement of the degree to which personal characteristics can be appropriately used to describe Bush is based on questions that ask if a list of characteristics "apply" or "don't apply".

The public's rating of presidents regarding any of these issues or characteristics is related to their overall assessment of his job performance in general. That is, if a president's job approval is high, he tends to be rated highly on most other dimensions. If a president's job approval is low, he tends to be rated more negatively on other dimensions.

Therefore, an interesting correlation becomes the degree to which the president's ratings and evaluations are higher or lower than his overall approval rating.

The following analysis refers to Bush's ratings on a series of issues and dimensions relative to his overall approval rating, which at the time of a Jan. 20-22 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll was 43% approve and 54% disapprove.

Rating President Bush on Issues and Characteristics Jan. 2006
	Approve	Disapprove	Ratio*
	%	%
Overall job approval	43	54	80
Terrorism	52	44	118
The problems caused by Hurricane Katrina	41	53	77
The economy	39	56	70
The situation in Iraq	39	58	67
Healthcare policy	31	60	52
Corruption in government	28	62	45
Immigration	25	62	40
	Applies	Doesn't apply	Ratio*
	%	%
Overall job approval	43	54	80
Is a strong and decisive leader	51	48	106
Is honest and trustworthy	49	49	100
Cares about the needs of people like you	44	54	81
Shares your values	44	54	81
Has a clear plan for solving the country's problems	34	64	53
* Normalized to base of 100 ( a 1:1 ratio of approve/applies to disapprove/doesn't apply equals 100).

The chart includes a ratio measure that begins with Bush's approve-to-disapprove ratio and multiplies it by 100 to produce a normalized scale. An approval ratio on a given dimension of "100" would be one on which his approval is the same as his disapproval.

The president's overall job approval rating ratio is 80 (i.e., 43 divided by 54, multiplied by 100).

At this time, terrorism is the only specific issue on which the president gets a higher approval rating than his overall rating. Terrorism's normalized score is 118, compared to the 80 for Bush's overall rating. Therefore, Bush overperforms on terrorism.

Bush's approval rating on the handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina is 77, which is essentially the same as his overall job approval ratio of 80.

The other sub-issue ratios -- the economy, the situation in Iraq, healthcare policy, corruption in government, and immigration -- are further below 100, suggesting that he underperforms on each.

Gallup's measurement of Bush regarding selected characteristics and personal qualities uses, as noted, an "apply"/"does not apply" scale. The following analysis assumes that the approve-to-disapprove ratio can be compared to his overall job approval ratio, as was done previously for the sub-issue approval ratings.

The president fares better on these characteristics than he did on specific issue approval.

Recall that the overall approve-to-disapprove ratio for Bush's job performance is 80. He receives a ratio of 80 or higher on four out of five of the characteristics tested, with only "has a clear plan for solving the country's problems" coming in below that.

Bush receives ratios significantly above 80 for being a strong and decisive leader and for being honest and trustworthy. He is essentially at 80 for "cares about the needs of people like you" and "shares your values." He is below 80 on the "clear plan" dimension.

So, the president overperforms his basic job approval rating in terms of terrorism, being a strong and decisive leader, and being honest and trustworthy.

The president essentially equals his basic job approval rating ratio in terms of handling the problems of Hurricane Katrina, caring about the needs of people like you, and sharing your values.

The president underperforms his basic job approval rating in terms of the economy, Iraq, healthcare, corruption, immigration, and having a clear plan for solving the nation's problems.

In short, the current data suggest that President Bush would do well to focus his speech on convincing the public that he has a clear plan for addressing the economy, Iraq, healthcare, corruption, and immigration -- while staying the course on terrorism.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,006 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 20-22, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.