New Orleans Residents Optimistic About Future

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Most New Orleans residents are optimistic about the future of their city, but that doesn't necessarily mean they expect life to get back to normal very soon -- if at all.

According to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey of people currently living in New Orleans, 73% of residents are either "very" optimistic (26%) or "somewhat" optimistic (47%) about the future of their city. Another 24% are pessimistic.

The Feb. 18-26, 2006 poll interviewed a random sample of adults currently living in the city of New Orleans. Respondents were contacted on landline telephones and cellular telephones, given that many areas of New Orleans are still without working landline service.

When you think about the future of New Orleans, would you say you are -- [ROTATED: very optimistic, somewhat optimistic, somewhat pessimistic, (or) very pessimistic]?

Optimism does not mean people expect life to be the way it was in the Big Easy. A substantial minority of residents, 43%, say that things will never get back to normal, and another 17% don't anticipate normality for at least five years. Only 14% are so optimistic as to think the city will be back to normal within three years.

For the city of New Orleans, would you say things -- [ROTATED: are completely back to normal, are not yet back to normal, but will eventually be, or will never be back to normal]?

(If eventually get back to normal) How long do you think it will be before things get back to normal for the city of New Orleans -- less than a year, one to less than three years, three to five years, or more than five years?

In the meantime, most residents -- 75% -- want to continue with one of their city's signature activities, the Mardi Gras celebration. They are, however, somewhat divided as to whether it should be as extensive as in the past. About half, 49%, want no change from previous years, while another 26% want a toned-down celebration. Twenty-two percent think there should be no celebration at all.

Which comes closest to your view of the Mardi Gras celebrations this year -- [ROTATED: there should be the same kind of public displays such as parades and floats as there were in the previous years, there should be some celebration of Mardi Gras, but it should be a low-key event with relatively few public displays, or there should be no Mardi Gras celebration at all]?

Looking ahead, virtually all residents -- 95% -- say the federal government should provide money for reconstruction, but only 45% think the federal government will actually do so.

Do you think the federal government should provide the money necessary to rebuild New Orleans, or not?
Do you think the federal government will provide the money necessary to rebuild New Orleans, or not?

Still, by a respective margin of 53% to 36%, residents say that city government corruption could be more of an obstacle to reconstruction than a lack of funding from the federal government.

Which do you think is the bigger obstacle to rebuilding the city of New Orleans -- [ROTATED: the federal government does not care enough about what happens to the city and will not provide the necessary money to rebuild, (or) there is so much corruption in the city government that when the money to rebuild is provided it will be misused]?

One difficult issue during the city's reconstruction will include whether to rebuild the areas of the city that lie under sea-level and are most prone to flooding. Most current New Orleans residents want to see these areas rebuilt, but they are divided as to whether the reconstruction should be scaled back. Forty-three percent say no to scaling back, but 41% say yes. Another 11% oppose any reconstruction in those areas.

Do you think the areas of the city that are under sea-level and were most affected by the flooding from Hurricane Katrina should -- [ROTATED: be rebuilt as they were before, be rebuilt, but on a smaller scale, or not be rebuilt at all]?

Views differ considerably by race, which is not surprising because the areas under sea level included a disproportionate number of blacks. Fifty-five percent of black residents support rebuilding those areas as they were before, compared with just 35% of white residents.

The city surely will not be rebuilt in time for the next hurricane season and probably would not be able to withstand a major hurricane during that time. But New Orleans residents are not overly confident that the city could withstand even a small hurricane during the next season. A slight majority of residents -- 54% -- think New Orleans will be able to do that, but 43% disagree.

Thinking ahead to the next hurricane season, do you think New Orleans will or will not be prepared to deal with a small hurricane?

BASED ON 399 ADULTS IN FORM A

Residents are even more closely divided as to whether New Orleans, once it is rebuilt, can withstand a major hurricane -- 51% say yes, 45% say no.

Thinking ahead to when the city of New Orleans is rebuilt, do you think it will or will not be prepared to deal with a major hurricane?

BASED ON 405 ADULTS IN FORM B

The levees that failed during Hurricane Katrina were at the floodwalls of the Lake Pontchartrain and Vicinity Project. Residents are now leery about the Mississippi River levees that did not fail during the storm. Compared with a year ago, 51% of New Orleans residents are now less confident that those levees can hold in case of a major flood, while 46% have not lost confidence.

Compared with a year ago, are you now less confident that the levees protecting the city from the Mississippi River will hold if there is a major flood, or has your level of confidence not changed?

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 804 adults, aged 18 and older, who are currently living in the city of New Orleans, conducted Feb. 18-26, 2006. For results based on the total sample of current New Orleans residents, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

For results based on the 399 New Orleans residents in the Form A half-sample and 405 New Orleans residents in the Form B half-sample, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points.

Respondents were contacted on landline telephones and cellular telephones. The sample was weighted to adjust for the respondents' probability of being included in the sample based on the number of working telephone lines they have and the number of people who use each of those lines.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.