Most Recent Bush Quarter Worst for a President Since 1992

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- George W. Bush's most recent quarter, his 22nd in office, was the worst of his presidency and the worst for any president since 1992, based on his 35.8% average approval rating during that quarter. It also ranks in the bottom 20 quarters out of the more than 240 quarters Gallup has measured for all presidents since Harry Truman.

For the quarter beginning on April 20, 2006, and ending on July 19, Bush averaged a 35.8% approval rating. This includes Bush's term low 31% single poll rating in early May of this year. Since then, his approval rating has recovered somewhat with his last rating of his 22nd quarter at 40%. Bush's first two ratings of his 23rd quarter have been 37% and 40% respectively.

For each of the last six quarters, Bush's average approval rating has shown some decline, with the last five marking new lows for him.

Of the 243 separate presidential quarters for which Gallup has data beginning with the Truman administration, Bush's 35.8% quarter falls in the bottom 20, ranking 224th. It is the worst quarterly average for a president since the elder George Bush averaged 35% in 1992.

Bill Clinton's worst average was 41.4% from July-Oct. 1994. The worst average ever recorded was Truman's 23% in his 27th quarter in office, from Oct. 20, 1951-Jan. 19, 1952.

Bush is not the only president to have a poor 22nd quarter, but not all presidents who served into a second term have done so. Truman averaged 39% in his 22nd quarter and Richard Nixon averaged just 26%, shortly before he would resign his office as a result of the Watergate scandal. But Dwight Eisenhower averaged 53%, Ronald Reagan averaged 64%, and Bill Clinton averaged 62%. While Eisenhower's 53% was positive in an absolute sense, it also was his worst quarterly average as president.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with randomly selected national samples, each of approximately 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.