Bush Speech Did Little to Convince Public of Clear Iraq Plan

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush's Jan. 10, 2007, national address regarding the situation in Iraq not only did little to persuade Americans to support his policy, but even failed to convince the public that he has a coherent strategy for handling the situation in Iraq. Following the speech, there was only a slight increase in the percentage of Americans saying that Bush has a clear plan for Iraq. Fewer Americans believe the Democrats in Congress have a clear plan for Iraq. All told, half of Americans believe neither Bush nor the Democrats have a clear plan to deal with the situation. More generally, most Americans express little to no confidence in Bush to recommend the right thing to do in Iraq. Also, Americans are dubious that the Iraqi government will be able to handle the responsibility of keeping Iraq secure.

U.S. Leadership on Iraq

The Jan. 12-14, 2007, USA Today/Gallup poll finds that just 29% of Americans say that President Bush has a clear plan for Iraq, while 69% say he does not. The public is even less likely to believe the Democrats in Congress have a clear plan, with just 21% saying they do and 75% saying they do not.

All told, that leaves half of Americans saying that neither the executive nor the legislative leadership of the country has a coherent set of ideas to address the Iraq situation. Only 5% of Americans believe both Bush and the congressional Democrats have clear plans for Iraq, while 23% believe Bush does but the Democrats do not, and 16% believe the Democrats do but Bush does not.

Bush recently addressed the nation to lay out his new plans for Iraq. According to the latest poll (see Related Items: "Opposition to Troop Increase Unchanged After Bush's Iraq Speech"), Americans oppose both his call for increased troop levels and for $1 billion economic aid for Iraq. Regardless of whether the public favors the specifics of his plans, Bush did little to convince the American people that he at least has a clear plan for addressing the situation. Prior to the speech, 25% of Americans thought he did, compared with 29% following the address.

Even though a sizeable 39% of Americans report watching the speech, only 33% of speech-watchers came away from it believing Bush has a clear plan for Iraq.

Bush did move the numbers among his natural party supporters, as now 61% of Republicans believe he has a clear plan, compared with 53% prior to his address. Both Democrats and independents showed small but not statistically significant increases on this measure.

Congressional Democrats did not fare any better in the public's eyes given their responses to Bush's new proposals, as fewer Americans (21%) now believe they have a clear plan for Iraq than did so before Bush outlined his strategy (25%). A decline was evident among independents and Republicans, with Democrats showing a slight increase.

Confidence in Government to Deal With Iraq

Confidence in Bush to "recommend the right thing to do in Iraq," is also scarce, as just 15% of Americans have a great deal of confidence in him to do this and only an additional 22% have a fair amount. Nearly half of Americans, 46%, say they have "almost no" confidence in Bush to recommend the right thing to do in Iraq.

Additionally, only 28% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing in handling the Iraq issue.

This lack of confidence in Bush helps explain why Americans say they have more confidence in the Democrats in Congress (51%) than Bush (36%) to handle the situation in Iraq. This result is most likely a repudiation of Bush's performance handling the Iraq issue rather than an endorsement of the Democrats, given that a relatively small percentage of Americans, including a minority (40%) of Democrats, believe the congressional Democrats have a clear plan on Iraq.

One of the goals of the new Bush policy is to turn over responsibility for making Iraq secure to the Iraqi government. In his recent address, Bush indicated that the Iraqi government had agreed to take responsibility for the country's security by November. However, most Americans, 60%, are not confident that the Iraqi government will be able to handle that responsibility, with only 5% saying they are "very" confident and 34% "somewhat" confident.

Republicans are more optimistic than Democrats or independents on this count -- half of Republicans are at least somewhat confident that the Iraqi government will be able to handle the responsibility of keeping Iraq secure, compared with 38% of independents and only 30% of Democrats.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,003 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 12-14, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

5. Do you think George W. Bush does -- or does not -- have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq?

6. Do you think the Democrats in Congress do -- or do not -- have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq?

18. When it comes to making policy for handling the situation in Iraq, how much confidence do you have in George W. Bush to recommend the right thing to do in Iraq -- a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or almost none?

19. Who do you have more confidence in when it comes to handling the situation in Iraq -- [ROTATED: George W. Bush (or) the Democrats in Congress]?

20. As you may know, the Iraqi government has agreed to take responsibility for making the country secure as of November. How confident are you that the Iraqi government will be able to handle that responsibility -- very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not confident at all?

21. Did you happen to watch or listen to the nationally televised speech George W. Bush gave this past Wednesday on Iraq, or not?

22. Did you happen to see, hear, or read any news coverage of last Wednesday'sspeech, or not?

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.21-22)