GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
TORONTO, ONTARIO -- In July, support for the federal Liberals -- led by Jean Chrétien, the current Prime Minister of Canada -- decreased substantially while the newly formed Alliance Party moved into a distant second-place position. The Conservatives (P.C.) came in third, trailing the Alliance by five points, while the New Democratic Party (NDP) and Bloc Québécoiswere tied for fourth, and the Reform Party remained last.
These are the major findings of the latest Gallup poll in Canada, conducted July 13-21, which asked Canadians, "If a federal election were held today, which party's candidate do you think you would favour?" Thirty-three percent of Canadians were undecided as to which party to support; the remainder of respondents had decided on a particular party and candidate.
Among Canadians who had made a decision, less than half (47%) would support the Liberal Party in a federal election if it were held today, down from 53% in June. Although support for the federal Liberals continues to be higher than it was in the last election, in 1997 (38%), it is at the lowest level in three years. In July 1997, a month and a half after the election, a Gallup poll showed that support for the federal Liberals had climbed to 48%. A month later it was at 53%, and until the latest poll, support had not dropped below the 50% level. As recently as March of this year, 58% of Canadian voters supported the federal Liberal Party, but as the Alliance Party has gained strength, Liberal support has waned.
Alliance Party Surges
The recently formed Alliance Party elected a new leader --
Stockwell Day -- this past July, which may be the reason that
support for the Alliance has doubled since June, from 9% to 18%.
This puts the party in second place in the federal standings, just
ahead of the Conservatives, who garnered 13% support -- down from
16% in June. The Conservative Party had held the second-place
position for most of the past three years, its support fluctuating
between a low of 11% in September 1998 and a high of 23% in July of
last year.
Eight percent of all Canadians (31% of Quebecers) would cast their ballots for the Bloc Québécois if a federal election were held today. This party, which runs on the platform of Quebec separatism, had the same level of support in June. Eight percent of Canadians would support the NDP, the same percentage that said this in June.
Support for the Reform Party, which saw most of its members move over to the Alliance Party, held steady at 3%. Last February, when the Alliance Party was formed, the Reform Party enjoyed 11% support. Two percent of Canadian voters who had made a decision would support other parties.
Regional Analysis
Support for Liberals has increased slightly in the Atlantic
provinces. In these provinces, support for the Liberals stands at
49%, up from 44% in June. The P.C. party garnered 19% support, down
substantially from 35% in June. Support for the NDP stands at 18%,
up from 17% in June. While the Alliance garnered no mentions in
June, it received 10% support in July.
In Quebec, support for the federal Liberals increased by three percentage points, from 51% in June to 54% in July. The Bloc Quebecois is in second place with 31% support, down six percentage points from June. Support for the Alliance stands at 6% in July, up from 2% in June, followed by the P.C. at 3%. The NDP and Reform parties received almost no mentions in Quebec.
Across the three other regions, support for the Liberals displayed a significant decline. In Ontario, support for the federal Liberals dropped 12 percentage points (52%, vs. 64% in June). Support for the P.C. remained consistent, at 20%, since June, while the Alliance saw an increase in support from 6% to 15%, up nine percentage points. The NDP garnered 10% support, followed by the Reform with 2%.
In the Prairies, the Alliance Party is slightly ahead of the Liberals with 35% support, up 13 percentage points from June, followed by the Liberals with 32% support, down 11 percentage points. Eleven percent each would support the NDP and the P.C. while 7% would support the Reform.
In British Columbia, the Liberals lost seven percentage points (37%, vs. 44% in June) and are now tied for first place with the Alliance, which gained 15 percentage points (37%, vs. 22% in June). Support for the Conservatives increased slightly to 9% from 6% in June. Support for the NDP and the Reform declined in July, from 16% to 9% for the NDP, and from 10% to 8% for the Reform.
Survey Methods
The results reported here are based on 1,002 telephone interviews
with adults in Canada, 18 years of age and older, conducted July
13-21, 2000. A sample of this size is accurate within a 3.1
percentage-point margin of error, 19 in 20 times. The party
standings are based on a sample of 657 decided voters. A sample
size of 657 is accurate within a 3.8 percentage-point margin of
error, 19 in 20 times. A stratified random sample is used with age
and gender weights. The margins of error are also higher for the
regions, which reflect smaller sample sizes. For example, in
Quebec, 267 interviews were conducted -- with a margin of error of
6.0 percentage points, 19 in 20 times.
"If a federal election were held today, which party's candidate do you think you would favour?"
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
|
|
|
|
||
|
National: |
||||||||
|
2000 July 13-21 |
47% |
3 |
8 |
13 |
8 |
18 |
2 |
|
|
2000 June 9-19 |
53% |
3 |
8 |
16 |
8 |
9 |
2 |
|
|
2000 May 15-22 |
54% |
3 |
7 |
15 |
11 |
9 |
2 |
|
|
2000 April 10-19 |
53% |
5 |
7 |
14 |
10 |
9 |
3 |
|
|
2000 March 13-19 |
58% |
9 |
6 |
15 |
8 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
2000 February 14-19 |
53% |
11 |
9 |
16 |
7 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
2000 January 17-23 |
53% |
11 |
8 |
16 |
9 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1999 December 8-15 |
57% |
11 |
7 |
13 |
10 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1999 November 15-22 |
54% |
9 |
7 |
20 |
10 |
na |
1 |
|
|
1999 October 18-22 |
50% |
8 |
8 |
20 |
12 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1999 September 16-23 |
54% |
10 |
7 |
16 |
10 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1999 August 13-21 |
50% |
9 |
10 |
20 |
9 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1999 July 13-19 |
52% |
7 |
9 |
23 |
7 |
na |
1 |
|
|
1999 June 14-19 |
53% |
8 |
9 |
20 |
9 |
na |
1 |
|
|
1999 May 14-23 |
51% |
9 |
10 |
20 |
8 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1999 Apr 12-18 |
54% |
10 |
9 |
15 |
10 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1999 Mar 18-23 |
56% |
11 |
9 |
13 |
9 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1999 Feb 15-19 |
55% |
10 |
10 |
16 |
9 |
na |
1 |
|
|
1999 Jan 20-25 |
56% |
10 |
10 |
13 |
9 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1998 Dec 2-8 |
52% |
11 |
10 |
16 |
10 |
na |
1 |
|
|
1998 Nov 9-15 |
53% |
11 |
11 |
16 |
8 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1998 Oct 14-21 |
58% |
11 |
6 |
16 |
7 |
na |
1 |
|
|
1998 Sep 16-22 |
59% |
9 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
na |
1 |
|
|
1998 Aug 17-23 |
56% |
13 |
6 |
14 |
9 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1998 Jul 23-Aug 3 |
60% |
12 |
7 |
12 |
8 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1998 Jun 22-30 |
53% |
12 |
8 |
16 |
9 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1998 May 22-31 |
55% |
12 |
9 |
15 |
8 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1998 Apr 20-26 |
58% |
12 |
9 |
13 |
7 |
na |
1 |
|
|
1998 Mar 18-24 |
58% |
14 |
7 |
14 |
6 |
na |
- |
|
|
1998 Feb 18-24 |
57% |
12 |
9 |
13 |
9 |
na |
1 |
|
|
1998 Jan 22-27 |
55% |
14 |
9 |
13 |
8 |
na |
1 |
|
|
1997 Dec 8-15 |
51% |
13 |
8 |
16 |
10 |
na |
1 |
|
|
1997 Nov 17-23 |
55% |
13 |
7 |
14 |
9 |
na |
1 |
|
|
1997 Oct 7-13 |
55% |
14 |
7 |
14 |
8 |
na |
1 |
|
|
1997 Sep 18-23 |
53% |
13 |
8 |
16 |
8 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1997 Jul 22-27 |
48% |
19 |
9 |
13 |
10 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1997 Jun 11-16 |
42% |
19 |
9 |
16 |
12 |
na |
2 |
|
|
1997 June 2 Election |
38% |
19 |
11 |
19 |
11 |
na |
2 |
|
|
By Region, 2000 July 13-21: |
||||||||
|
Atlantic |
49% |
4 |
0 |
19 |
18 |
10 |
0 |
|
|
Quebec |
54% |
* |
31 |
3 |
* |
6 |
5 |
|
|
Ontario |
52% |
2 |
0 |
20 |
10 |
15 |
1 |
|
|
Prairies |
32% |
7 |
0 |
11 |
11 |
35 |
3 |
|
|
British Columbia |
37% |
8 |
0 |
9 |
9 |
37 |
0 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add exactly to 100, due to
rounding.
* = Less than 0.5%
na = Not applicable
French Translation:
"Si des élections
fédérales avaient lieu aujourd'hui, quel serait le
parti du candidat de votre choix?"