Bush Run of Sub-40% Approval Ratings One of the Longest

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest USA Today/Gallup poll finds 34% of Americans approving of the job George W. Bush is doing as president. His approval rating has been highly stable in recent months, averaging 36% since last October, and 34% so far in 2007. Bush was last above 40% approval in September 2006, and his run of six consecutive months below 40% is one of the longest in Gallup's polling history.

Approval Ratings in Context

The historical average for Gallup's presidential approval rating is 55%. Approval ratings below 40% are well below average and not common. Only 12% of all Gallup approval ratings have been below that mark, but almost every president since Harry Truman has had at least one such reading at some point in their presidency. The only exceptions are John Kennedy and Dwight Eisenhower.

Given the rarity of approval ratings below 40%, extended runs of sub-40% approval ratings are also uncommon. A review of Gallup historical data finds only nine instances in which a president consistently had approval ratings below 40% for three months or longer. Only six presidents endured such a run, with Truman, Jimmy Carter, and Bush suffering through such a fate on multiple occasions. The following table displays the findings:

Presidents With Approval Ratings Below 40% for Three or More Consecutive Months, Gallup Polls
President	Number of Consecutive Months Below 40% Job Approval	Dates	Average Approval Rating During Those Months
			%
Harry Truman	4	Sep-Dec 1946	34
Harry Truman	26	Oct 1950-Dec 1952	29
Lyndon Johnson	3	Aug-Oct 1967	38
Richard Nixon	13	July 1973-Aug 1974	28
Gerald Ford	3	Jan-Mar 1975	38
Jimmy Carter	7	May-Nov 1979	32
Jimmy Carter	7	May-Nov 1980	34
George W. Bush	5	Feb-Jul 2006	36
George W. Bush	6	Oct 2006-Mar 2007	36

Bush's current run of six consecutive months below 40% has been exceeded by only three presidents (a total of four times).

The longest run of sub-40% approval ratings occurred during the Truman presidency and lasted over two years, from October 1950 through the end of his administration (Gallup did not measure Truman's approval rating in Jan. 1953, so it is possible his streak lasted an additional month).

Richard Nixon's 13-month run began in July 1973 and also lasted until the end of his presidency with his resignation amid the Watergate scandal.

Jimmy Carter's seven-month run in 1979 during the energy crisis was interrupted by public approval rallies following the U.S. hostage crisis in Iran and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Carter's second seven-month streak of sub-40% approval ratings began in May 1980 and lasted until he was defeated for re-election by Ronald Reagan.

Gerald Ford and Lyndon Johnson had brief streaks of sub-40% approval ratings, lasting only three months each. Bush had another five-month run last year, but managed a few ratings of 40% or above from July-September.

The elder George Bush nearly makes the list. His job approval rating was below 40% from June-November 1992, save for a single 40% reading in mid-August following the Republican National Convention, which re-nominated him for president.

Is Recovery to Be Expected?

One ominous sign for George W. Bush is that about half of the sub-40% approval streaks only came to an end when the president left office (Truman and Nixon) or was defeated for re-election (Carter and the elder Bush's near six-month run).

In the other cases, the presidents were not only able to exceed 40% approval, but in most cases, 50% at some point in the remainder of their administration. These 50%-plus job approval ratings were usually the result of a short-lived rally following an international crisis, such as Johnson's halting U.S. bombing in Vietnam, Ford and the Mayaguez incident, and Carter's decision to boycott the Moscow Olympics following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

Presidents' High Job Approval Ratings After Streak of Sub-40% Approval Ratings Ended, Gallup Polls
President	Dates of Sub-40% Streak	High Job Approval Following Sub-40% Streak	Date of High Approval Rating Following Sub-40% Streak
		%
Harry Truman	Sep-Dec 1946	69	Jan 1949
Lyndon Johnson	Aug-Oct 1967	50	Apr 1968
Gerald Ford	Jan-Mar 1975	53	Dec 1976
Jimmy Carter	May-Nov 1979	58	Jan 1980
George W. Bush	Feb-Jul 2006	44	Sep 2006

Unfortunately, approval ratings above 50% were not typical for these "recovering" presidents. All averaged below 50% from the time their (initial) sub-40% streak ended until the end of their presidency, ranging from a low of 32% for Carter to a high of just 46% for Ford.

Presidents' Average Job Approval Ratings After Streak of Sub-40% Approval Ratings Ended, Gallup Polls
President	Dates of Sub-40% Streak	Average Approval Rating Following Sub-40% Streak	Dates of Average
		%
Harry Truman	Sep-Dec 1946	40	Jan 1947-Dec 1952
Lyndon Johnson	Aug-Oct 1967	42	Nov 1967-Jan 1969
Gerald Ford	Jan-Mar 1975	46	Apr 1975-Dec 1976
Jimmy Carter	May-Nov 1979	32	Dec 1979-Dec 1980
George W. Bush	Feb-Jul 2006	37	Jul 2006-present

Moreover, all these presidents returned to the sub-40% mark at some point later in their presidency, some well below 40%. As shown above, Truman and Carter had second streaks of sustained low approval ratings that lasted until the end of their respective terms.

Presidents' Low Job Approval Ratings After Initial Streak of Sub-40% Approval Ratings Ended, Gallup Polls
President	Dates of Sub-40% Streak	High Job Approval Following Sub-40% Streak	Date of High Approval Rating Following Sub-40% Streak
		%
Harry Truman	Sep-Dec 1946	22	Feb 1952
Lyndon Johnson	Aug-Oct 1967	35	Aug 1968
Gerald Ford	Jan-Mar 1975	39	Apr Dec. 1975
Jimmy Carter	May-Nov 1979	31	Nov 1980
George W. Bush	Feb-Jul 2006	32	Feb 2007

Thus, it would not be unprecedented for Bush to break his "losing streak" and even return to majority approval, if only temporarily. This would be more likely to happen following a major international event or crisis, if history is a guide. But even if Bush gets a bump in approval, history suggests that it is unlikely that he would be able to sustain high levels of approval.

Also, based on history, the data suggest it is equally likely Bush will never return to the 40% level as to recover and go back above 50%.

So far in his second term in office, Bush has averaged just 41% job approval. He is in jeopardy of joining Truman (36%) and Nixon (34%) as the only presidents to average below 40% job approval for a term in office. Truman and Nixon did this in their second terms, though Nixon's second term was cut short by his resignation.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,007 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 23-25, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
	%	%	%
2007
2007 Mar 23-25	34	62	4
2007 Mar 11-14	35	61	4
2007 Mar 2-4	33	63	4
2007 Feb 9-11	37	59	3
2007 Feb 1-4	32	65	4
2007 Jan 15-18	36	61	3
2007 Jan 12-14	34	63	4
2007 Jan 5-7	37	59	4
2006
2006 Dec 11-14	35	61	4
2006 Dec 8-10	38	59	4
2006 Nov 9-12	33	62	4
2006 Nov 2-5	38	56	6
2006 Oct 20-22	37	58	4
2006 Oct 9-12	37	57	6
2006 Oct 6-8	37	59	4
2006 Sep 15-17	44	51	5
2006 Sep 7-10	39	56	5
2006 Aug 18-20	42	54	4
2006 Aug 7-10	37	59	4
2006 Jul 28-30	40	56	4
2006 Jul 21-23	37	59	4
2006 Jul 6-9	40	55	5
2006 Jun 23-25	37	60	3
2006 Jun 9-11	38	56	6
2006 Jun 1-4	36	57	6
2006 May 8-11	33	61	6
2006 May 5-7	31	65	5
2006 Apr 28-30	34	63	3
2006 Apr 10-13	36	59	5
2006 Apr 7-9	37	60	3
2006 Mar 13-16	37	59	5
2006 Mar 10-12	36	60	4
2006 Feb 28-Mar 1	38	60	2
2006 Feb 9-12	39	56	4
2006 Feb 6-9	42	55	4
2006 Jan 20-22	43	54	4
2006 Jan 9-12	43	53	4
2006 Jan 6-8	43	54	3
2005
2005 Dec 19-22	43	53	4
2005 Dec 16-18	41	56	3
2005 Dec 9-11	42	55	3
2005 Dec 5-8	43	52	5
2005 Nov 17-20	38	57	5
2005 Nov 11-13	37	60	3
2005 Nov 7-10	40	55	5
2005 Oct 28-30	41	56	3
2005 Oct 24-26	41	56	3
2005 Oct 21-23	42	55	3
2005 Oct 13-16	39	58	3
2005 Sep 26-28	45	50	5
2005 Sep 16-18	40	58	2
2005 Sep 12-15	45	52	3
2005 Sep 8-11	46	51	3
2005 Aug 28-30	45	52	3
2005 Aug 22-25	40	56	4
2005 Aug 8-11	45	51	4
2005 Aug 5-7	45	51	4
2005 Jul 25-28	44	51	5
2005 Jul 22-24	49	48	3
2005 Jul 7-10	49	48	3
2005 Jun 29-30	46	51	3
2005 Jun 24-26	45	53	2
2005 Jun 16-19	47	51	2
2005 Jun 6-8	47	49	4
2005 May 23-26	48	47	5
2005 May 20-22	46	50	4
2005 May 2-5	50	45	5
2005 Apr 29-May 1	48	49	3
2005 Apr 18-21	48	49	3
2005 Apr 4-7	50	45	5
2005 Apr 1-2	48	48	4
2005 Mar 21-23	45	49	6
2005 Mar 18-20	52	44	4
2005 Mar 7-10	52	44	4
2005 Feb 25-26	52	45	3
2005 Feb 21-24	51	45	4
2005 Feb 7-10	49	48	3
2005 Feb 4-6	57	40	3
2005 Jan 14-16	51	46	3
2005 Jan 7-9	52	44	4
2005 Jan 3-5	52	44	4
2004
2004 Dec 17-19	49	46	5
2004 Dec 5-8	53	44	3
2004 Nov 19-21	55	42	3
2004 Nov 7-10	53	44	3
2004 Oct 29-31	48	47	5
2004 Oct 22-24	51	46	3
2004 Oct 14-16	51	47	2
2004 Oct 11-14	48	49	3
2004 Oct 9-10	47	49	4
2004 Oct 1-3	50	48	2
2004 Sep 24-26	54	44	2
2004 Sep 13-15	52	45	3
2004 Sep 3-5	52	46	2
2004 Aug 23-25	49	47	4
2004 Aug 9-11	51	46	3
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1	48	49	3
2004 Jul 19-21	49	47	4
2004 Jul 8-11	47	49	4
2004 Jun 21-23	48	49	3
2004 Jun 3-6	49	49	2
2004 May 21-23	47	49	4
2004 May 7-9	46	51	3
2004 May 2-4	49	48	3
2004 Apr 16-18	52	45	3
2004 Apr 5-8	52	45	3
2004 Mar 26-28	53	44	3
2004 Mar 8-11	50	47	3
2004 Mar 5-7	49	48	3
2004 Feb 16-17	51	46	3
2004 Feb 9-12	51	46	3
2004 Feb 6-8	52	44	4
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	49	48	3
2004 Jan 12-15	53	44	3
2004 Jan 9-11	59	38	3
2004 Jan 2-5	60	35	5
2003
2003 Dec 15-16	63	34	3
2003 Dec 11-14	56	41	3
2003 Dec 5-7	55	43	2
2003 Nov 14-16	50	47	3
2003 Nov 10-12	51	45	4
2003 Nov 3-5	54	43	3
2003 Oct 24-26	53	42	5
2003 Oct 10-12	56	40	4
2003 Oct 6-8	55	42	3
2003 Sep 19-21	50	47	3
2003 Sep 8-10	52	43	5
2003 Aug 25-26	59	37	4
2003 Aug 4-6	60	36	4
2003 Jul 25-27	58	38	4
2003 Jul 18-20	59	38	3
2003 Jul 7-9	62	34	4
2003 Jun 27-29	61	36	3
2003 Jun 12-15	63	33	4
2003 Jun 9-10	62	34	4
2003 May 30-Jun 1	64	32	4
2003 May 19-21	66	30	4
2003 May 5-7	69	28	3
2003 Apr 22-23	70	26	4
2003 Apr 14-16	71	24	5
2003 Apr 7-9	69	26	5
2003 Apr 5-6	70	27	3
2003 Mar 29-30	71	26	3
2003 Mar 24-25	69	27	4
2003 Mar 22-23	71	25	4
2003 Mar 14-15	58	38	4
2003 Mar 3-5	57	37	6
2003 Feb 24-26	57	37	6
2003 Feb 17-19	58	37	5
2003 Feb 7-9	61	34	5
2003 Feb 3-6	59	35	6
2003 Jan 31-Feb 2	61	35	4
2003 Jan 23-25	60	36	4
2003 Jan 20-22	58	36	6
2003 Jan 13-16	61	34	5
2003 Jan 10-12	58	37	5
2003 Jan 3-5	63	32	5
2002
2002 Dec 19-22	61	32	7
2002 Dec 16-17	63	33	4
2002 Dec 9-10	63	32	5
2002 Dec 5-8	64	29	7
2002 Nov 22-24	65	28	7
2002 Nov 11-14	66	26	8
2002 Nov 8-10	68	27	5
2002 Oct 31-Nov 3	63	29	8
2002 Oct 21-22	67	28	5
2002 Oct 14-17	62	31	7
2002 Oct 3-6	67	28	5
2002 Sep 23-26	68	26	6
2002 Sep 20-22	66	30	4
2002 Sep 13-16	70	26	4
2002 Sep 5-8	66	30	4
2002 Sep 2-4	66	29	5
2002 Aug 19-21	65	28	7
2002 Aug 5-8	68	26	6
2002 Jul 29-31	71	23	6
2002 Jul 26-28	69	26	5
2002 Jul 22-24	69	24	7
2002 Jul 9-11	73	21	6
2002 Jul 5-8	76	18	6
2002 Jun 28-30	76	19	5
2002 Jun 21-23	73	21	6
2002 Jun 17-19	74	20	6
2002 Jun 7-8	74	18	8
2002 Jun 3-6	70	23	7
2002 May 28-29	77	17	6
2002 May 20-22	76	17	7
2002 May 6-9	76	19	5
2002 Apr 29-May 1	77	20	3
2002 Apr 22-24	77	17	6
2002 Apr 8-11	75	20	5
2002 Apr 5-7	76	19	5
2002 Mar 22-24	79	17	4
2002 Mar 18-20	79	16	5
2002 Mar 8-9	80	14	6
2002 Mar 4-7	77	18	5
2002 Mar 1-3	81	14	5
2002 Feb 8-10	82	14	4
2002 Feb 4-6	82	14	4
2002 Jan 25-27	84	13	3
2002 Jan 11-14	83	13	4
2002 Jan 7-9	84	12	4
2001
2001 Dec 14-16	86	11	3
2001 Dec 6-9	86	10	4
2001 Nov 26-27	87	8	5
2001 Nov 8-11	87	9	4
2001 Nov 2-4	87	9	4
2001 Oct 19-21	88	9	3
2001 Oct 11-14	89	8	3
2001 Oct 5-6	87	10	3
2001 Sep 21-22	90	6	4
2001 Sep 14-15	86	10	4
2001 Sep 7-10	51	39	10
2001 Aug 24-26	55	36	9
2001 Aug 16-19	57	34	9
2001 Aug 10-12	57	35	8
2001 Aug 3-5	55	35	10
2001 Jul 19-22	56	33	11
2001 Jul 10-11	57	35	8
2001 Jun 28-Jul 1	52	34	14
2001 Jun 11-17	55	33	12
2001 Jun 8-10	55	35	10
2001 May 18-20	56	36	8
2001 May 10-14	56	31	13
2001 May 7-9	53	33	14
2001 Apr 20-22	62	29	9
2001 Apr 6-8	59	30	11
2001 Mar 26-28	53	29	18
2001 Mar 9-11	58	29	13
2001 Mar 5-7	63	22	15
2001 Feb 19-21	62	21	17
2001 Feb 9-11	57	25	18
2001 Feb 1-4	57	25	18

Bush Run of Sub-40% Approval Ratings One of the Longest

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