Americans Favor Iraq Timetable, but Not Necessarily a Speedy Withdrawal

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- President Bush is expected to veto the latest bill on spending for U.S. troops since it contains a specific timetable for removing U.S. troops from Iraq. Most recent polling shows a majority of Americans back the idea of a timetable in general. But previous polling has shown relatively few Americans favor immediate withdrawal of troops, leaving open the question of exactly what kind of timetable Americans would want.

The latest Gallup Panel survey probed attitudes about a withdrawal timetable in more detail. Taking into account those who oppose any timetable, the results show that the majority of Americans favor a timetable that begins at least by mid-2008, but only a minority favor a timetable that would begin this fall. A majority of Americans favor the completion of U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq by the end of 2009.

The April 23-26, 2007 panel survey finds 57% of Americans favoring "the U.S. setting a timetable for removing its troops from Iraq and sticking to that timetable regardless of what is happening in Iraq," while 39% favor the United States "keeping troops in Iraq as long as necessary to secure the country, even if that takes many more years."

The poll asked those who favor a timetable when they would want troop withdrawal to begin and by when they would like to see it completed.

It is clear that most of the 57% of Americans who favor withdrawal want it to start soon. More than half of those who favor a timetable want the United States to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq within the next six months and 75% want it to commence by the end of the year. Only 2% of those favoring a timetable think it should not start this year or next.  

(Asked of those who favor the U.S. setting a timetable for removing its troops from Iraq) Next, we'd like to ask you more specifically about your views on a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. First, when do you think the U.S. should begin to withdraw troops from Iraq -- within the next six months, that is by October of this year, by the end of this year, by the middle of next year, by the end of next year, or in 2009 or beyond?

Congress' bill called for the United States to start withdrawing troops from Iraq no later than Oct. 1. While that target fits with the wishes of the majority of those who advocate a timetable, not all those who favor a timetable want such a quick withdrawal. And as mentioned above, nearly 4 in 10 Americans oppose any timetable for withdrawal. As a result, only 30% of all Americans both favor a timetable and want it to begin within six months. A majority of Americans, 51%, however, would favor a timetable that began withdrawing troops by the middle of next year.

These data are consistent with previous studies that show that while Americans favor withdrawing troops from Iraq, few advocate an immediate withdrawal.

In its bill, Congress did not mandate a specific time by which the withdrawal should be completed, but they did set a goal of six months from the time the withdrawal would begin, meaning the full withdrawal would ideally be complete no later than April 1, 2008.

Fifty-six percent of those who support a timetable want U.S. troops out of Iraq by the middle of next year. But among all Americans, only 32% favor a timetable and want all U.S. troops out of Iraq by that time. Americans as a whole would be more likely to endorse withdrawal by the end of next year (45%), and a majority (55%) would support withdrawing completely from Iraq by the end of 2009.

The Iraq war has long been a sharply political issue, with Democrats opposing the war and Republicans supporting it. Most Republicans, thus, oppose a timetable for withdrawing troops while most Democrats support a timetable. Independents are more likely to favor a timetable than to oppose it.

Even though most Democrats support a timetable, slightly less than half of Democrats, 48%, favor a timetable beginning in six months, while the same percentage would oppose any timetable or would want withdrawal to begin sometime after the next six months.

Support for an Iraq Timetable, Begin Withdrawal, by Party Affiliation

Similarly, less than half of Democrats favor a timetable calling for the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Iraq by the middle of next year. So, while the Democratic leadership is serving the wishes of their supporters by passing legislation that would set a timetable, the party's supporters would not necessarily have chosen as speedy a withdrawal as the leadership.

Support for an Iraq Timetable, Complete Withdrawal, by Party Affiliation

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup Panel study are based on telephone interviews with 1,007 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 23-26, 2007. Gallup Panel members are recruited through random selection methods. The panel is weighted so that it is demographically representative of the U.S. adult population. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

9. If you had to choose, which would you favor -- [ROTATED: the U.S. setting a timetable for removing its troops from Iraq and sticking to that timetable regardless of what is happening in Iraq, (or) the U.S. keeping troops in Iraq as long as necessary to secure the country, even if that takes many more years]?

10. (Asked of those who favor the U.S. setting a timetable for removing its troops from Iraq) Next, we'd like to ask you more specifically about your views on a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. First, when do you think the U.S. should begin to withdraw troops from Iraq -- within the next six months, that is by October of this year, by the end of this year, by the middle of next year, by the end of next year, or in 2009 or beyond?

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.9-10): BASED ON FULL SAMPLE

11. (Asked of those who favor withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq within the next six months) Would you favor an immediate withdrawal from Iraq, or a withdrawal that would begin in the summer?

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.9-11): BASED ON FULL SAMPLE

12. (Asked of those who favor the U.S. setting a timetable for removing its troops from Iraq) And when do you think the U.S. should complete its withdrawal from Iraq; that is, when should all U.S. troops be out of Iraq -- by the end of this year, by the middle of next year, by the end of next year, by the end of 2009, or after that?

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.9/Q.12): BASED ON FULL SAMPLE