Experience A Major Reason Clinton Has Edge Over Obama

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup polling finds Democratic preferences in the race for the 2008 presidential nomination returning to where they have been for most of the year, with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton the solid front-runner over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and the other candidates. Her "experience" in politics is a major reason for her appeal, as it is mentioned most often by Clinton supporters as a reason they back her. "Issue positions" are a top consideration for supporters of both Clinton and Obama. Generally speaking, Clinton supporters' stated reasons for supporting her focus almost exclusively on positive characteristics they see in her. And while Obama supporters mention many things they like about their chosen candidate, a substantial percentage discuss concerns with Clinton as reasons why they support Obama.

The May 4-6, 2007, USA Today/Gallup poll shows Clinton reestablishing a double-digit lead over Obama and the rest of the field of candidates for the nomination, after a mid-April poll showed her with only a 5-point lead. Clinton also beats Obama by a 56% to 37% margin in a hypothetical head-to-head ballot, also a stronger showing than in mid-April (53% to 41%). The current poll asked those who preferred Clinton or Obama in this ballot to give some of the reasons for their choice.

Among those who prefer Clinton over Obama, the most common reason given for their choice is that "Clinton is more experienced than Obama," mentioned by 35% of Clinton supporters. Nearly one in four also cite her issue positions and agenda. Seventeen percent say they prefer Clinton because "she is a woman." Ten percent mention the fact that "Bill Clinton was president." Ten percent also say they are more familiar with Clinton than Obama. Since March, when Gallup first asked this question, there has been little change in relative frequency with which the various categories are mentioned.

(Asked of Democrats who support Clinton in head-to-head match up with Obama) What are the main reasons you are more likely to support Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination? [OPEN-ENDED]

BASED ON 265 CLINTON SUPPORTERS

No single theme dominates Obama supporters' stated reasons for preferring him over Clinton. The most common are that his supporters consider him to be "fresh and new," that they agree with his issue positions and agenda, and that they like him or dislike Clinton. A slightly higher percentage of Obama supporters mention the "fresh and new" theme now than did so in March, though this change is not statistically significant.

Three other themes, mentioned by between 9% and 11% of Obama supporters, have as much to do with perceived weaknesses of Clinton as perceived strengths of Obama. These include the idea that "Clinton has too much baggage," that Obama has a better chance of being elected president than Clinton, and that Obama is a less polarizing figure than Clinton.

(Asked of Democrats who support Obama in head-to-head match up with Clinton) What are the main reasons you are more likely to support Barack Obama than Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination? [OPEN-ENDED]

BASED ON 194 OBAMA SUPPORTERS

Generally speaking, it appears Clinton supporters are highly focused on what they like about her. And while Obama supporters mention many things they like about him, they also have a lot of uncomplimentary things to say about Clinton. Specifically, 85% of Clinton supporters mention something positive about her and only 15% mention something negative about Obama when asked to explain their preference. Seventy-seven percent of Obama supporters say something positive about him, but 48% also mention something negative about Clinton when providing reasons for choosing Obama.

Thus, it appears that the decision-making process for many Democratic primary and caucus voters may largely consist of evaluating the pros and cons of having Clinton as the party's nominee, rather than evaluating the relative merits of Clinton compared with her rivals for the nomination. That would suggest that Obama, former senator John Edwards, lesser-known candidates in the current field, and possibly Al Gore (should he enter the race) are in a sense vying to be the anti-Clinton candidate. As such, they can expect a good deal of their support to result from opposition to Clinton rather than enthusiastic support for their own candidacy.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 491 Democrats and Democratic leaners, aged 18 and older, conducted May 4-6, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For results based on the sample of 265 Democrats and Democrats leaners who prefer Clinton to Obama, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 194 Democrats and Democrats leaners who prefer Obama to Clinton, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±8 percentage points.