Americans Don't Necessarily Like Russia, but Tend to See Russia's Relationship to U.S. as Friendly

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup polls suggest that the American public now is more likely to view Russia as an ally or as a friend of the U.S. than it is as unfriendly or as an enemy -- even though, as a Russian interviewer pointed out to President Bill Clinton on his recent trip to Moscow -- less than a majority of Americans have a favorable view of the country. And, despite Clinton's strong advocacy of a proposed missile defense system during his visit, the U.S. public is decidedly split on the issue.

Russian Radio Interviewer Confronts Clinton with Gallup Poll Results
A Russian radio interviewer confronted Bill Clinton on June 3 with the results of a March Gallup poll, which showed that only 40% of the American public had a favorable opinion of Russia, with a slight majority, 51%, saying that they had an unfavorable opinion. The interviewer asked Clinton why Americans tended to be so negative towards Russia. According to transcripts of the broadcast, Clinton replied, "I think if you ask the American people another question -- would you like to see a good American relationship with a strong, prosperous, democratic Russia -- they would say yes."

While Gallup has not asked the specific question suggested by the president, a recent poll did ask Americans if they considered Russia to be an ally, a friendly nation, an unfriendly nation, or an enemy of the United States. The results are no doubt more encouraging to both Clinton and the Russians than the ones quoted by the radio interviewer. Sixty-one percent of Americans are willing to say that the relationship between the U.S. and Russia is on the positive side of that ledger, with 12% saying that Russia is an ally of the U.S. and another 49% say that it is a friendly to the U.S. Only 11% of Americans, in fact, say that Russia is an enemy of the U.S., while another 22% say it is unfriendly towards the U.S.

From a comparative perspective, the poll results show that the public is now more positive about Russia than it is about China (51% of Americans say China is a friend or ally of the U.S.), or such countries as Cuba (only 17% say it is a friendly nation), or Iran or Iraq (17% and 10% respectively say they are friends of the U.S.). On the other hand, as might be imagined, Russia has a way to go before it reaches the "friendship" level of such countries as Britain, France, Canada, or Germany, which are considered to be friends of the U.S. by almost all Americans.

It is interesting to note that older Americans, those over 65 years of age in particular, are significantly less certain that Russia is an ally or a friend of this country than is the case for those who are younger. Of those 18-29, for example, 72% say that Russia is an ally or a friend, compared to only 41% of those 65 and older -- no doubt reflecting the more vivid memories of the Cold War among those who are old enough to remember it well.

Putin Still an Unknown to Most Americans
Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom Bill Clinton spent considerable time last week in Moscow, is not yet a major factor in the American public's consciousness. Only 18% of Americans can come up with his name when they are asked to name the president of Russia (the poll was conducted May 18-21, shortly before Clinton's recent trip). Putin should not feel bad, however; only 22% of Americans can name the Prime Minister of England (Tony Blair), and only 2% of Americans know the name of the Prime Minister of America's northern neighbor, Canada (Jean Chretien).

One in Four Still Worried about Possibility of Nuclear War; Support for Missile Defense System is Mixed
One of the major purposes of President Clinton's trip was to discuss a proposed missile defense system, designed to protect the United States from nuclear missile attacks. Although Clinton and Putin agreed that there is a "dangerous and growing threat" of nuclear attack from rogue nations around the world, there was no agreement reached on Russia's willingness to change existing treaty agreements in order to make such a system possible.

Although Clinton strongly supports the idea of the anti-missile system, the American public is not yet totally convinced of its necessity. A question asked on a late May Gallup poll juxtaposed support for the missile system because it would "protect the U.S. from missile attack" against the idea of opposing it because it would be "too costly and might interfere with existing arms treaties with the Russians." Given this choice, the public splits roughly down the middle: 48% say they would support the missile system, while 42% say they would oppose it. A similar question asked in 1985 showed roughly the same results -- 45% supported it then, and 47% opposed it. Another poll question that more simply asks about such a missile defense system without giving any arguments against it generates a more positive 55% to 38% support level.

Even though the Cold War is over, concern over a possible nuclear war is still very real for about one out of four Americans. Eight percent say that it is very likely that "we will get into a nuclear war within the next 10 years," while another 20% say it is fairly likely. These numbers are actually higher than in 1990, just as the Cold War was coming to an end, but lower than the 48% who said a nuclear war was likely within the next 10 years in 1982.

Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with randomly selected national samples of 1,024 adults, 18 years or older, conducted March 17-19, 2000; 1,011 adults, 18 years and older, conducted May 18-21, 2000; and 1,032 adults, 18 years and older, conducted May 23-24, 2000. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Now I would like your overall opinion of some foreign countries. Is your overall opinion of ... [RANDOM ORDER] ... very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

BASED ON -505-- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; + 5 PCT PTS

 

	Very favorable	Mostly favorable	Mostly unfavorable	Very unfavorable	No opinion
A. Taiwan
2000 Mar 17-19	10	37	27	10	16
1996 Mar 8-10	10	49	17	5	19
1979 Sept	17	46	15	5	17

B. China

 

2000 Mar 17-19	6	29	40	16	9
2000 Jan 25-26	4	29	33	18	16
1999 May 7-9	5	33	38	18	6
1999 Mar 12-14**	2	32	39	20	7
1999 Feb 8-9	8	31	34	16	11
1998 Jul 7-8	6	38	36	11	9
1998 Jun 22-23	5	34	42	9	10
1997 Jun 26-29	5	28	36	14	17
1996 Mar 8-10	6	33	35	16	10
1994 Feb 26-28	4	36	38	15	7
1991 Mar 14-17	5	30	35	18	12
1989 Aug 10-13	5	29	32	22	12
1989 Feb 28-Mar 2	12	60	10	3	15
1985 Feb 22-Mar 3	5	33	35	16	11
1979 Sep	18	46	18	7	11

** Based on half sample

C. Russia

 

2000 Mar 17-19	5	35	39	12	9
1999 Nov 4-7	4	34	44	14	4
1999 May 7-9	4	42	36	13	5
1999 Apr 13-14	3	30	45	14	8
1999 Feb 8-9	6	38	34	10	12
1997 Nov 21-23	7	49	29	7	8
1996 Mar 8-10	6	46	29	10	9
1995 Apr 21-24	5	44	32	12	7
1994 Feb 26-28	8	48	28	11	5

D. India

 

2000 Mar 17-19

7

40

30

8

15

E. Pakistan

 

2000 Mar 17-19

2

19

39

20

20

F. Israel

 

2000 Mar 17-19	16	46	20	8	10
2000 Jan 25-26	11	43	21	7	18
1999 May 7-9	15	53	19	6	7
1999 Feb 8-9	18	48	16	7	11
1996 Mar 8-10	17	45	18	11	9
1992 Feb 6-9	12	36	27	16	9
1991 Nov 21-14	11	36	26	11	16
1991 Sep 26-29	11	45	25	9	10
1991 Aug 8-11	15	47	19	6	13
1991 Mar 14-17	20	49	16	7	8
1991 Jan 30-Feb 2	28	51	10	3	8
1989 Aug 10-13	11	34	29	16	10
1989 Feb 28-Mar 2	8	41	25	13	13

For each of the following countries, please say whether you consider it an ally of the United States, friendly, but not an ally, unfriendly, or an enemy of the United States. How about … (Random order)

BASED ON -- 490 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; PLUS OR MINUS 5PCT PTS

 

Ally of the United States

Friendly, but not an ally

Unfriendly

An enemy of the U.S.

No opinion

A. Brazil

 

2000 May 18-21

24

59

4

1

12

B. Canada

 

2000 May 18-21

65

31

1

1

2

C. China

 

2000 May 18-21

10

41

30

13

6

D. Colombia

 

2000 May 18-21

11

41

28

9

11

E. Cuba

 

2000 May 18-21

5

12

42

36

5

F. Egypt

 

2000 May 18-21

21

55

10

4

10

G. France

 

2000 May 18-21

50

40

4

1

5

H. Germany

 

2000 May 18-21

44

44

5

3

4

I. Great Britain

 

2000 May 18-21

65

27

2

1

5

J. Greece

 

2000 May 18-21

27

55

5

1

12

K. India

 

2000 May 18-21

15

61

13

3

8

L. Iran

 

2000 May 18-21

3

14

44

34

5

M. Iraq

 

2000 May 18-21

2

8

39

47

4

N. Israel

 

2000 May 18-21

35

44

10

4

7

O. Italy

 

2000 May 18-21

42

49

2

1

6

P. Japan

 

2000 May 18-21

32

54

8

2

4

Q. Jordan

 

2000 May 18-21

16

52

14

3

15

R. Mexico

 

2000 May 18-21

33

55

6

3

3

S. North Korea

 

2000 May 18-21

6

26

35

24

9

T. Pakistan

 

2000 May 18-21

6

30

39

11

14

U. Russia

 

2000 May 18-21

12

49

22

11

6

V. Saudi Arabia

 

2000 May 18-21

19

37

23

12

9

W. Syria

 

2000 May 18-21

5

28

33

11

23

X. Taiwan

 

2000 May 18-21

25

55

9

1

10

Y. The Palestine Authority

 

2000 May 18-21

6

28

32

18

16

Z. Vietnam

 

2000 May 18-21

9

40

33

10

8

Finally, which, if any, of the following people do you happen to know the name of?

1. The current Russian president

2.  

   	Vladimir Putin	Other	No opinion
   2000 May 18-21	18	8	74

   
   
   
3. The U S. Secretary of State

4.  

   	Madeline Albright	Other	No opinion
   2000 May 18-21	33	3	64

   
   
   
5. The leader of Cuba

 

	Fidel Castro	Other	No opinion
2000 May 18-21	76	*	24

D. The Prime Minister of England

 

	Tony Blair	Other	No opinion
2000 May 18-21	22	5	73

E. The Prime Minister of Canada

 

	Jean Chretien	Other	No opinion
2000 May 18-21	2	2	96

Recently, there has been some discussion about the possibility of the United States building a defense system against nuclear missiles. Do you think the government should or should not spend the money that would be necessary to build such a system?

BASED ON -- 507 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; PLUS OR MINUS 5 PCT PTS

 

	Yes, should	No, should not	No opinion
2000 May 23-24	55%	38	7

Some people feel the U.S. should try to develop a ground- and space-based missile defense system to protect the U.S. from missile attack. Others oppose such an effort because they say it would be too costly and might interfere with existing arms treaties with the Russians. Which position comes closer to your view?

BASED ON -- 525 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B; PLUS OR MINUS 5 PCT PTS

 

	Should develop system	Oppose developing system	No opinion
2000 May 23-24	48%	42	10
1987 May**	44%	42	14
1986 Dec**	52%	40	8
1985 Aug**	45%	47	8

** Question wording: Some people feel the U.S. should try to develop a space-based "Star Wars" system to protect the U.S. from nuclear attack. Others oppose such an effort because they say it would be too costly and further escalate the arms race. Which position comes closer to your view?

For each of the following possibilities, please tell me whether you think it is very likely, fairly likely fairly unlikely or very unlikely to happen. First, ... Next, ... (Read A-D)

 

	Very likely	Fairly likely	Fairly unlikely	Very unlikely	No opinion
A. That we will get into a nuclear war within the next 10 years
2000 May 18-21	8	20	33	37	2
1998 Jun 5-7	19	18	30	31	2
1991	11	17	35	34	3
1990 May	8	13	33	42	4
1983 Nov	16	24	28	25	7
1982 Apr	19	29	24	21	7
1981	19	28	26	23	4

B. That the United States will be attacked by another country using nuclear weapons within the next 10 years

 

2000 May 18-21	9	23	31	35	2
1998 Jun 5-7	19	17	28	34	2

C. That terrorists will explode a nuclear bomb in the United States within the next 10 years

 

2000 May 18-21	18	31	27	22	2
1998 Jun 5-7	23	27	24	23	3

D. That other countries will use nuclear weapons against each other within the next 10 years

 

2000 May 18-21	24	38	21	14	3
1998 Jun 5-7	37	34	16	11	2

* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) = Volunteered response