GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Republican presidential contender John McCain has been on the religious offensive in recent weeks, first taking his rival, George W. Bush, to task for his February 2 appearance at Bob Jones University in South Carolina; then accusing Christian conservative leaders Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell of being "agents of intolerance."
McCain's attack on Bush for not condemning the anti-Catholic philosophy of Bob Jones University has been particularly sharp, reinforced by his "Catholic voter alert" phone banks informing potential Republican primary voters that "Bush stayed silent while gaining the support of Bob Jones University."
Gallup Poll trends suggest that McCain's message may be hurting Bush among Roman Catholics. According to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted February 25-27, the percentage of Catholic Republican voters nationwide supporting Bush for the GOP nomination has fallen from roughly six in ten in January to 46% today. At the same time, Bush's support among non-Catholic Republicans has remained steady at 61%. However, Catholics comprise only one-quarter of the Republican electorate nationwide. As a result, Bush continues to lead McCain nationally for the nomination by a wide margin, 57% to 33%.
Catholic Vote Matters Most in East
The Bush campaign has clearly taken McCain's Bob Jones assault
seriously. Last week, Governor Bush responded by writing to John
Cardinal O'Connor, the Archbishop of New York, and expressing his
strong support for the Catholic Church. "On reflection, I should
have been more clear in disassociating myself from anti-Catholic
sentiments and racial prejudice. It was a missed opportunity,
causing needless offense, which I deeply regret," Bush said in the
letter, later made public by his campaign.
Where the Catholic vote could make a real difference for McCain is in the Eastern states holding primaries on March 7, including Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. The new poll shows McCain losing badly to Bush in the Midwest and South, and tying Bush in the West, but beating the Texas governor handily in the East. Earlier this month, Bush was beating McCain in all regions, although by a smaller margin in the East than elsewhere.
| East | Midwest | South | West | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 Feb 25-27 | ||||
| Bush | 34% | 50% | 60% | 41% |
| McCain | 52 | 37 | 32 | 44 |
| Keyes | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Undecided | 13 | 9 | 7 | 14 |
To some degree this regional pattern of strength for Bush and McCain mirrors the religious make-up of different parts of the country. Gallup Poll statistics on religious preferences nationwide indicate that Catholicism is most prevalent in the East, and less so in the Midwest, the West, and particularly the South.
| East | Midwest | South | West | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992-1998 Gallup Religion Data | ||||
| Protestant | 44% | 59% | 71% | 49% |
| Catholic | 38 | 28 | 15 | 25 |
| Other | 10 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| None | 8 | 8 | 7 | 14 |
The Catholic percentage is even higher in New England, where 46% of adults aged 18 and older are Catholic and only 37% are Protestant. In New York, the ratio is 43% Catholic to 33% Protestant. However, in California, where the battle for the most delegates of any state is being waged, 46% of the population is Protestant and only 30% is Catholic.
Bush Not a Religious Extremist
While support for George W. Bush among Catholic Republicans has
slipped, The Gallup Poll finds that few Republican voters perceive
him as being out of the religious mainstream. Only 20% of
Republicans believe Bush is "too close to the religious right,"
while 72% disagree. This is only marginally higher than the 14% who
consider McCain to be too close to the religious right. (The survey
was taken prior to McCain's February 28 speech to a Virginia Beach
high school in which he accused Christian conservative leaders Pat
Robertson and Jerry Falwell of being "agents of intolerance," and
by implication associated Bush with them.)
In the same speech, McCain declared that in championing campaign finance reform, he has been accused by his opponents of being disloyal to the Republican Party. The new Gallup poll finds somewhat more agreement with that charge. Close to one-third of Republican voters, 32%, say the phrase "not a real Republican" applies to John McCain, compared with only 20% who see Bush that way.
The survey also finds that McCain and Bush are perceived equally in terms of each "going too far in criticizing his opponents." Forty-five percent of Republicans say this applies to McCain; 43% say it applies to Bush. Whether that changes after the past week of increased negative attacks remains to be seen.
Survey Methods
The latest results reported here are based on telephone interviews
with a randomly selected national sample of 1,004 adults, 18 years
and older, conducted February 25-27, 2000. For results based on
this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the
maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is
plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error,
question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys
can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who are running in the Republican primary for president. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president. [ROTATED: Texas Governor, George W. Bush; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Political commentator, Alan Keyes]
BASED ON 444 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Catholic Republican voters | Non-Catholic Republican voters | |
|---|---|---|
| February 25-27, 2000 | ||
| Support Bush | 46% | 61% |
| Support McCain | 46 | 29 |
| Other/Undecided | 8 | 10 |
| 100% | 100% | |
| January 13-16, 2000 | ||
| Support Bush | 61% | 61% |
| Support McCain | 24 | 21 |
| Other/Undecided | 15 | 18 |
| 100% | 100% | |
Next we have some negative statements some people might make about the candidates. (For each one/As I read each one again), please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to George W. Bush. [RANDOM ORDER]
(For each one/As I read each one again), please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to John McCain. [RANDOM ORDER]
BASED ON 466 REPUBLICANS AND INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN; +/- 5 PCT. PTS.
| Applies | Doesn't apply | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Is too close to the religious right | |||
| Bush | 20% | 72 | 8 |
| McCain | 14% | 74 | 12 |
| Goes too far in criticizing his opponents | |||
| Bush | 43% | 52 | 5 |
| McCain | 45% | 50 | 5 |
| Is not a real Republican | |||
| Bush | 20% | 70 | 10 |
| McCain | 32% | 59 | 9 |