GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- With the Congress apparently on the verge of passing one of the largest tax cuts in history, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds Americans solidly in favor of including a substantial tax cut in this year's federal budget. However, most Americans doubt the tax cut will have much positive impact on them personally, and only about a quarter of the public thinks such a cut will help the economy a lot. Whatever their doubts about the impact of the new legislation, most Americans believe that if the tax cut is enacted, President George W. Bush will have fulfilled his campaign promise on the issue.
The poll --conducted this past weekend, May 18-20 -- shows that by a margin of 67% to 27%, Americans favor rather than oppose a substantial tax cut. And by an even larger margin, 73% to 19%, Americans say that if the tax cut is enacted, Bush will have fulfilled his campaign pledge on this issue. Moreover, more than eight in 10 Americans believe that enactment of the tax cut will reflect favorably on Bush -- 49% say it would be a major accomplishment, and another 33% say it would be a minor accomplishment. Only 15% say it would not represent an accomplishment at all.
But the poll also shows that Americans are divided on whether the new legislation would have much of a positive impact. About half -- 49% -- say the tax cut would help the economy, while the same number say it would either make little difference (34%) or actually hurt the economy (15%). More specifically, 25% say the tax cut, if enacted, would help the economy "a lot," while another 24% say it would help "a little." Americans are less optimistic that the tax cut would help them personally -- 17% say it would help "a lot," and another 20% say "a little." Another 49% say the tax cut would make no difference to them at all, while 11% expect it to actually hurt them.
Large Differences Among Partisan Groups, but Small Differences by Income
Part of the criticism leveled at the new tax cut is that it would disproportionately help higher rather than lower- and middle-income Americans. But this argument does not appear to be reflected in the public's reaction to the legislation. There are significant differences in attitudes between Republicans and Democrats, but the differences between high- and low-income Americans in support of the plan are relatively small.
As shown in the graph below, 43% of Americans with annual income of $50,000 a year or more say the tax cut will help them, compared with 32% who say that among those earning $20,000 to $50,000 a year, and 36% among the lowest income group. By contrast, the differences by party affiliation are much greater, as more than half the Republicans say the tax cut would help them, compared with only 32% of the independents who say that and just 23% of the Democrats. These findings probably reflect the fact that the tax cut was proposed by a Republican president and supported by the vast majority of congressional Republicans, while most congressional Democrats opposed it.
SurveyMethods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,010 national adults, aged 18+, conducted May 18-20, 2001. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Turning to taxes,
Based on what you have heard or read, do you favor or oppose Congress including a substantial tax cut in this year's federal budget?
|
Favor |
Oppose |
No opinion |
|
|
2001 May 18-20 |
67% |
27 |
6 |
|
2001 May 7-9 |
60% |
30 |
10 |
In the next several days, Congress may pass a plan that would cut taxes more than $1 trillion over the next ten years.
If the tax cut is enacted, do you think President Bush will or will not have fulfilled his campaign promise to include a significant tax cut in his budget?
|
Yes, will have |
No, will not |
No opinion |
|
|
2001 May 18-20 |
73% |
19 |
8 |
If the tax cut is enacted, do you think this will be a major accomplishment for President Bush, a minor accomplishment, or a not an accomplishment at all?
|
Major accomplishment |
Minor accomplishment |
Not an accomplishment |
No |
|
|
2001 May 18-20 |
49% |
33 |
15 |
3 |
Q.27-28 AND Q.29-30 ROTATED
If the tax cut is enacted, do you think it will mostly -- [ROTATED: help the economy, hurt the economy], or do you think it will not make much difference?
Will this [Q.27 RESPONSE INSERTED] a lot or a little?
Q.27 AND Q.28 COMBINED RESPONSES
|
|
Not much difference |
|
No |
|||
|
A lot |
A little |
A little |
A lot |
|||
|
2001 May 18-20 |
25% |
24 |
34 |
6 |
9 |
2 |
If the tax cut is enacted, do you think it will mostly -- [ROTATED: help you and your family, hurt you and your family], or do you think it will not make much difference?
Will this [Q.29 RESPONSE INSERTED] a lot or a little?
Q.29 AND Q.30 COMBINED RESPONSES
|
Help you and |
Not much difference |
Hurt you and |
No |
|||
|
A lot |
A little |
A little |
A lot |
|||
|
2001 May 18-20 |
17% |
20 |
49 |
5 |
6 |
3 |
