GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans show as little concern today as they did three months ago about the potential that major computer-related failures will disrupt society this New Year. According to the latest Gallup Y2K tracking study, conducted in partnership withUSA Todayand the National Science Foundation, only a handful of Americans currently believe the Y2K computer programming issue will result in major problems for society or cause themselves more than a minor inconvenience. These findings are nearly identical to those measured in August. At the same time, public awareness continues to grow regarding Y2K or the so-called "Millennium Bug," which could cause computer systems around the world to misinterpret the date come January 1, 2000.
Gallup has been tracking public attention to the Y2K issue since last December in a series of polls sponsored byUSA Todayand the National Science Foundation. The latest update, conducted November 18-21, indicates that after a year of steady decline, public concern about the scope of potential computer-generated problems has now leveled off at low levels. Today, just 12% believe computer mistakes due to the Y2K issue will cause major problems. This is similar to the 11% recorded in August, but down from 21% in March and 34% in December 1998. Similarly, only 3% now believe they will suffer major problems personally, down from 14% last year.
In addition to this drop in expectations about the severity of Y2K problems, Americans are much more optimistic today than a year ago that the problems will be short-lived. Three out of four Americans, 73%, now say that to the extent Y2K problems occur, they will only last for a few days or weeks after January 1, 2000; just 24% believe the problems will extend for several months to a year. By contrast, last December only 45% expected the problems to be short term, while 49% thought they would last longer.
Consumer Banking Fears Have Calmed
When Americans are asked directly about the likelihood of some
specific Y2K-related events, Gallup's Y2K series has consistently
found the public to be more concerned about possible banking
failures than any of several other potential problems tested.
However, the level of this concern has fallen sharply over the past
year. In December 1998, 63% thought such banking failures were
likely, compared to just 38% today -- a 25-point drop.
At the same time, the public's expectations for failures in other services and security systems has fallen by four to 12 points over the past year. This includes air traffic control systems, for which 34% now think failures are likely, compared to 46% last year. The other items measured and the percentage who currently think failures in each area likely are: 32% for food and retail distribution systems, 28% for emergency 911 systems, 22% for hospital equipment and services, 19% for nuclear power and defense, and just 13% for passenger cars.
While general concern about Y2K is dropping, the percentage of Americans who appear to be informed about the issue continues to grow. The percentage hearing "a great deal" about the Y2K issue has grown steadily over the past year, from 39% in December 1998, 56% in March 1999, and 64% in August, to 70% today. Another 20% have heard "some," 6% have heard "not much" and only 4% "nothing at all."
Less than Half the Public will Prepare for Y2K
Errors
The percentages of individuals who seem serious about taking steps
to protect themselves from possible computer disruptions have also
held steady in recent polls. When asked in an open-ended question
to name any precautionary plans they may have, roughly one quarter
of Americans, 23%, currently say they will stockpile extra food --
the most frequently mentioned activity. This is essentially
unchanged from the 21% in August, and 22% in March, who told Gallup
that they planned to store extra food. Stocking up on water ranks
second, mentioned by 18% of the public, followed by withdrawing
extra cash and stockpiling household supplies, each mentioned by
10%. A handful of Americans say they will take more extreme steps,
including the following:
- 7% will monitor their financial records more closely;
- 6% will purchase a generator or heater; and
- 3% will stock up on gasoline.
When asked in this open-ended format, 45% of Americans name at least one precautionary step they intend to take, while the remaining 55% appear to have no plans in mind. However, when prompted with seven specific possible precautions (asked of a separate half-sample of respondents in the same survey), the percentage indicating they will take various precautions tends to be much higher. Fifty-eight percent say they will obtain special bank confirmation of their accounts, 40% will stockpile food and water, 28% will store extra gasoline, 25% will withdraw a large amount of cash, 13% will buy a generator or wood stove, and 8% will withdraw all their money from bank accounts. However, as January 1 draws nearer, the open-ended measure is more likely to be the most accurate predictor of consumer behavior.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 1,010 national adults, 18 years and
older, conducted November 18-21, 1999. For results based on this
sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum
error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or
minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
As you may know, most computer systems around the world have to be reprogrammed so that they can accurately recognize the date once we reach the Year 2000. Do you think that computer mistakes due to the Year-2000 issue will cause major problems, minor problems, or no problems at all?
| Major problems | Minor problems | No problems at all | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 12 | 71 | 14 | 3 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 11 | 71 | 15 | 3 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 21 | 65 | 12 | 2 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 34 | 51 | 10 | 5 |
Do you think that computer mistakes due to the Year-2000 issue will cause major problems, minor problems or no problems at all for you personally?
| Major problems | Minor problems | No problems at all | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 3 | 50 | 45 | 2 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 7 | 52 | 40 | 1 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 9 | 56 | 32 | 3 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 14 | 53 | 30 | 3 |
How much have you seen or heard about the Year-2000 computer bug problem, sometimes called the Millennium Bug or the Y2K bug, before now -- a great deal, some, not much, or nothing at all?
| A great deal | Some | Not much | Nothing at all | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | |
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 70 | 20 | 6 | 4 | * |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 64 | 24 | 9 | 3 | * |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 56 | 30 | 11 | 3 | * |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 39 | 40 | 13 | 8 | * |
To the extent Y2K computer problems occur, how long do you think they will last -- for only a few days around January 1, 2000, for several weeks, for several months to a year, or for more than a year?
| A few days | Several weeks | Several months to a year | More than a year | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | |
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 41 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 3 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 37 | 34 | 22 | 5 | 2 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 23 | 30 | 37 | 7 | 3 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 15 | 30 | 38 | 11 | 6 |
Do you or your household plan to take any steps to prepare or protect yourself from problems that might result from the Y2K computer problem? IF YES: What specific actions or precautions are you planning to take as January 1, 2000 approaches? [OPEN-ENDED]
BASED ON - 499 - ASKED FORM A; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Nov 18-21, 1999 | Aug 25-29, 1999 | Mar 5-7, 1999 | Dec 9-13, 1998 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocking up on food | 23% | 21% | 22% | -- |
| Stocking up on water | 18 | 15 | 12 | -- |
| Having more cash on hand | 10 | 10 | 11 | -- |
| Stocking up on household supplies (candles, radio, firewood, etc.) | 10 | 7 | 6 | -- |
| Keeping better financial records/closer monitoring | 7 | 8 | 9 | -- |
| Purchase a generator/heater | 6 | 6 | 4 | -- |
| Other (miscellaneous) | 5 | 6 | 7 | -- |
| Updating computer | 4 | 4 | 4 | -- |
| Stocking up on gasoline | 3 | 3 | 5 | -- |
| Withdrawing cash from various accounts | 2 | 4 | 4 | -- |
| No air travel | 1 | 1 | 1 | -- |
| Saving more money | * | 1 | 2 | -- |
| Making sure everything is Y2K compliant | * | * | 1 | -- |
| No, do not plan to take any steps | 51 | 51 | 44 | -- |
| No opinion | 4 | 5 | 7 | -- |
* Note: Up to 5 mentions allowed
For each of the following, please say whether that is something you probably will or will not do in order to protect yourself against problems associated with the Y2K computer bug. How about… [RANDOM ORDER]
BASED ON - 511 - ASKED FORM A; ± 5 PCT PTS
Obtain special confirmation or documentation of your bank account balances, retirement funds, or other financial records
| Yes, will do | No, will not do | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 58% | 41% | 1% |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 51 | 48 | 1 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 66 | 33 | 1 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 65 | 33 | 2 |
Stockpile food and water
| Yes, will do | No, will not do | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 40 | 59 | 1 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 36 | 63 | 1 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 39 | 60 | 1 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 65 | 33 | 2 |
Buy a generator or wood stove
| Yes, will do | No, will not do | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 13 | 85 | 2 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 14 | 86 | * |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 24 | 75 | 1 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 17 | 81 | 2 |
Withdraw all your money from the bank
| Yes, will do | No, will not do | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 8 | 91 | 1 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 10 | 90 | * |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 15 | 84 | 1 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 16 | 82 | 2 |
Withdraw and set aside a large amount of cash
| Yes, will do | No, will not do | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 25 | 73 | 2 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 25 | 74 | 1 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 30 | 70 | * |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 31 | 66 | 3 |
Avoid travelling on airplanes on or around January 1, 2000
| Yes, will do | No, will not do | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 55 | 43 | 2 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 43 | 55 | 2 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 54 | 44 | 2 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 47 | 50 | 3 |
Stock up on gasoline
| Yes, will do | No, will not do | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 28 | 71 | 1 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 21 | 77 | 2 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | -- | -- | -- |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | -- | -- | -- |
Y2K PREPARATION SUMMARY
| Nov 18-21, 1999 | Aug 25-29, 1999 | Mar 5-7, 1999 | Dec 9-13, 1998 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obtain bank confirmation | 58% | 51% | 66% | 65% |
| Avoid travelling on airplanes | 55 | 43 | 54 | 47 |
| Stockpile food and water | 40 | 36 | 39 | 26 |
| Stock up on gasoline | 28 | 21 | -- | -- |
| Withdraw large amount of cash | 25 | 25 | 30 | 31 |
| Buy generator/wood stove | 13 | 14 | 24 | 17 |
| Withdraw all money from bank | 8 | 10 | 15 | 16 |
Next I'm going to read some specific problems. As I read each one, please say whether you think it likely or unlikely to occur as a result of Y2K. First, ... Next, ... [RANDOM ORDER]
Air traffic control systems will fail, putting air travel in jeopardy
| Yes, likely | No, not likely | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 34% | 64% | 2% |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 35 | 62 | 3 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 43 | 55 | 2 |
| 19998 Dec 9-13 | 46 | 52 | 2 |
Banking and accounting systems will fail, possibly causing errors in employee paychecks, government payments, and other automated financial transactions
| Yes, likely | No, not likely | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 38 | 59 | 3 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 48 | 52 | * |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 55 | 43 | 2 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 63 | 36 | 1 |
Food and retail distribution systems will fail, possibly causing grocery and other store shortages
| Yes, likely | No, not likely | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 32 | 66 | 2 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 35 | 64 | 1 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 40 | 58 | 2 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 63 | 36 | 1 |
Hospital equipment and services will fail, putting patients at risk
| Yes, likely | No, not likely | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 22 | 76 | 2 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 22 | 76 | 2 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 32 | 66 | 2 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 33 | 65 | 2 |
City or county emergency "911" communication systems will fail, putting citizens at risk
| Yes, likely | No, not likely | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 28 | 70 | 2 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 27 | 71 | 2 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 32 | 66 | 2 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 36 | 62 | 2 |
Passenger cars and trucks will fail to work properly, possibly causing social and economic disruption
| Yes, likely | No, not likely | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 13 | 85 | 2 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 12 | 87 | 1 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | -- | -- | -- |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 17 | 81 | 2 |
Nuclear power or defense systems could fail, causing a major accident
| Yes, likely | No, not likely | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 19 | 78 | 3 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 18 | 80 | 2 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 27 | 69 | 4 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 30 | 67 | 3 |
Y2K OUTLOOK SUMMARY
| Nov 18-21, 1999 | Aug 25-29, 1999 | Mar 5-7, 1999 | Dec 9-13, 1998 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banking/accounting will fail | 38% | 48% | 55% | 63% |
| Air traffic control will fail | 34 | 35 | 43 | 46 |
| Food/retail distribution will fail | 32 | 35 | 40 | 37 |
| Emergency/ "911" will fail | 28 | 27 | 32 | 36 |
| Hospital equipment/services will fail | 22 | 22 | 32 | 33 |
| Nuclear power/defense systems will fail | 19 | 18 | 27 | 30 |
| Passenger cars/trucks will fail | 13 | 12 | -- | 17 |