GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Vice President Al Gore continues to lead former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley in the race for the 2000 Democratic nomination for president, recording a 22-point lead in the latest national Gallup poll, conducted November 18-21. But in the Northeast, where Bradley gained his fame -- as an outstanding basketball player both at Princeton University and professionally with the New York Knicks, and later as a United States senator from New Jersey -- the race between the two Democratic candidates is tied at 44%. Gore enjoys 25-point leads each in the Midwest and the West, and a 31-point lead in the South -- where he rose to prominence as a United States senator from Tennessee.
These regional differences are important, since the first official primary is in the Northeast -- specifically, New Hampshire, where a Gallup poll in late October showed Gore and Bradley in a dead heat, much like the current situation in the Northeast overall. One reason that Bradley does better in New Hampshire is that more men are attracted to his candidacy there than they are elsewhere across the country. Although Gore enjoys majority support among both male and female Democrats nationally, in New Hampshire the two groups differ, with men supporting Bradley by a 19-point margin and women supporting Gore by a 14-point margin. Bradley also receives much more support in New Hampshire than elsewhere from the college educated and from those with household incomes over $50,000 a year.
Whatever the differences in their support among Democrats, in the projected general election contest each candidate fares about the same against the Republican front-runner, Texas Governor George W. Bush. Gore trails Bush by 16 points among registered voters, while Bradley trails by 15 points.
Gore and Bradley -- Liberal or Moderate?
For the past seven years, Gore has been associated with the "New
Democrat" Bill Clinton, so-called because of Clinton's efforts to
avoid being tagged as a "liberal" and to position himself and the
Democratic Party as more centrist. Many analysts have suggested
that Bill Bradley, with his self-characterized "big" solutions for
"big" problems, may be more in the tradition of the old liberal
Democrats and less of a moderate as projected by Clinton and Gore.
But these terms are not precise, and many politicians and analysts
would disagree about how much they might apply to the two
candidates. The Gallup poll shows that Americans in general apply
the terms quite differently, depending on their party
affiliation.
Among the national public overall, Gore is more likely to be seen as "liberal" than Bradley, with 42% describing Gore this way, compared to just 27% for Bradley -- a reversal of what many analysts are saying. This distinction, however, is mostly driven by Republicans, 58% of whom call Gore a liberal, compared to only 28% who see Bradley that way. Democrats tend to perceive the two candidates' ideologies in similar terms, with the majority of Democrats describing Bradley and Gore as moderate, and only one-quarter saying each is liberal.
In part, these differences may reflect the fact that it is difficult to categorize any candidate along ideological dimensions, and it is especially difficult to do so for a candidate, like Bradley, who has had little national exposure on the issues. Indeed, nearly a quarter of the public, 24%, express no opinion about Bradley's ideological orientation, compared to 8% who are unsure about Gore's.
Survey Methods
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews with a
randomly selected national sample of 1,011 adults, 18 years and
older, conducted November 18-21, 1999. For results based on the
whole sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the
maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is
plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error,
question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys
can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2000. [ROTATE: Former New Jersey Senator, Bill Bradley, (or) Vice President, Al Gore]
BASED ON --443-- DEMOCRATS/LEAN DEMOCRATIC; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Gore | Bradley | Other (vol.) | None/ No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | ||||
| Registered Democrats | 56 | 34 | * | 10 |
| All Democrats | 54 | 35 | * | 11 |
| All Democrats Trend: | ||||
| 1999 Nov 4-7 | 58 | 33 | * | 9 |
| 1999 Oct 21-24 | 57 | 32 | * | 11 |
| 1999 Oct 8-10 | 51 | 39 | 1 | 9 |
| 1999 Sep 10-14 | 63 | 30 | * | 7 |
| 1999 Aug 16-18 | 58 | 31 | 1 | 10 |
| 1999 Jun 25-27 | 64 | 28 | 1 | 7 |
| 1999 Jun 4-5 | 63 | 28 | 0 | 9 |
| 1999 May 23-24 | 59 | 30 | 0 | 11 |
| 1999 Apr 30-May 2 | 66 | 23 | 1 | 10 |
| 1999 Apr 13-14 | 54 | 34 | 1 | 11 |
If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Gore, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?
| Al Gore | George W. Bush | OTHER (vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| (RV) 1999 Nov 18-21 | 40 | 56 | * | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 Nov 18-21 | 39 | 56 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Nov 4-7 | 40 | 55 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Oct 21-24 | 43 | 52 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 | 40 | 56 | * | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 Sep 23-26 | 37 | 55 | * | 8 |
| (NA) 1999 Sep 10-14 | 39 | 56 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Aug 16-18 | 41 | 55 | * | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 Jul 16-18 | 38 | 55 | * | 7 |
| (NA) 1999 Jun 25-27 | 41 | 56 | * | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Jun 4-5 | 40 | 56 | * | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 May 23-24 | 40 | 54 | * | 6 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 30-May 2 | 40 | 56 | * | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 13-14 | 38 | 59 | * | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Mar 12-14 | 41 | 56 | * | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Mar 5-7 | 41 | 56 | * | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Feb 19-21 | 43 | 54 | * | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Jan 8-10 | 47 | 48 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1998 May 8-10 | 46 | 50 | * | 4 |
If former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Bill Bradley, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Bill Bradley, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
| Bill Bradley | George W. Bush | OTHER (vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| (RV) 1999 Nov 18-21 | 40 | 55 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Nov 18-21 | 39 | 55 | * | 6 |
| (NA) 1999 Nov 4-7 | 42 | 53 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Oct 21-24 | 39 | 54 | * | 7 |
| (NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 | 42 | 54 | * | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 Sep 10-14 | 37 | 57 | * | 6 |
| (NA) 1999 Aug 16-18 | 40 | 55 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 13-14 | 34 | 61 | * | 5 |
If you had to choose would you describe the political views of -- [ROTATE] as liberal or as moderate? How about ...
| A. Al Gore | ||||
| National adults | Republicans | Independents | Democrats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 42% | 58% | 43% | 26% |
| Moderate | 49 | 34 | 46 | 66 |
| CONSERVATIVE (vol.) | 1 | 1 | 1 | * |
| No opinion | 8 | 7 | 10 | 8 |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| B. Bill Bradley | ||||
| National adults | Republicans | Independents | Democrats | |
| Liberal | 27% | 28% | 27% | 25% |
| Moderate | 48 | 45 | 46 | 52 |
| CONSERVATIVE (vol.) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| No opinion | 24 | 26 | 25 | 22 |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
(RV) = Registered Voters
(NA) = National Adults
vol. = volunteered response