GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ - "Clinton fatigue," a political syndrome characterized by its proponents as causing rapid channel surfing at the sight of President Clinton and the desire to see anyone but Al Gore elected president, is emerging as an important theory in the 2000 election coverage. A search of publications in the Dow Jones news database produces 399 references to the term and it was recently defined by The New York Times as "essentially a catch-all to describe a general sense that people have had enough of Bill Clinton." It is hard to find solid evidence in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, however, that Clinton fatigue pervades the electorate or, more importantly, that it is having a major impact on voter preferences.
Political references to Clinton fatigue are being fueled by the serious political problems Vice President Al Gore faces in these early stages of the election process. Gore consistently trails the Republican front-runner, Texas Governor George W. Bush, in election surveys, and in the new October 8-10 survey Gallup found Bush beating Gore by 16 percentage points, 56% to 40%. The same survey finds that Bill Bradley has gained support among Democratic voters for their party's nomination. Gore still leads Bradley among Democrats nationwide, but by just 12 percentage points, 51% to 39%, down from a 33-point lead in mid-September.
The question: Is it valid to attribute the weaknesses in Al Gore's candidacy, in whole or in part, to his association with Bill Clinton?
Evaluating Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton could theoretically be a liability for Gore if
Americans view his presidency as unsuccessful, or if they are
merely tired of him and want no future reminders.
The question of whether Bill Clinton is perceived as successful or unsuccessful is a matter of interpretation. Still tarnished by the Monica Lewinsky scandal, Clinton receives extremely low personal ratings in the new poll, at the same time he receives majority support for his job performance and policies. This is generally consistent with the results of Gallup polls conducted over the last two years.
- A majority of Americans, 56%, currently approve of the way Clinton is handling is job as president; just 39% disapprove.
- A slightly higher proportion, 60%, think the policies Clinton is proposing would move the country in "the right direction," while only 35% say "the wrong direction."
- When asked about their preferences for the next administration, 50% say they would like to see a continuation of Clinton's policies while 47% want a change in direction.
- At the same time, only a third of the public, 35%, say they approve of Bill Clinton as a person, while 62% disapprove.
Notably, this pattern is the reverse of the public's impression of Ronald Reagan approximately a year before the 1988 election when his vice president, George Bush, won the presidency. In 1987, with investigation of the Iran-contra affair ongoing, Reagan received personal approval ratings over 70%, while his job approval rating suffered, falling below 50%. Additionally, only 36% of Americans in August 1987 wanted to see the next president continue with Reagan's policies, compared to 50% today for Clinton's.
Thus, compared to Reagan, Clinton has had greater political success, but much less personal success. What is the net evaluation of his presidency? When last asked early in 1999, despite his personal image problems and the impact of the impeachment crisis, 77% of Americans said they believed Clinton's presidency had been a success.
Clinton Fatigue Has Limited Impact on Voters
One question included in the October 8-10 Gallup survey asked the
public directly about their being fatigued with Clinton. The
results suggest that the public is split: 43% of Americans agree
they are "tired of anyone or anything associated with Bill Clinton"
while the majority, 56%, disagree. An analysis of voter preferences
indicates that this sentiment is driving some, but not large
numbers of votes away from Gore.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the "Clinton fatigue" group -- the 43% who are tired of the president -- is largely comprised of the standard Republican base in the electorate (including Republicans and independents who are inclined to support the Republican Party). It also contains almost the same set of people who disapprove of the job Clinton is doing as president. Importantly, this group prefers George W. Bush for president regardless of whether Bush is running against Al Gore or his Democratic challenger, Bill Bradley. In a head-to-head trial heat with Bush, only 24% of this group would vote for Bradley, compared to 17% who would vote for Gore. This translates into a loss of 2% of the national vote for Gore that might be ascribed directly to Clinton fatigue. However, if these voters who are "tired" of Clinton were voting for Gore rather than Bush, Gore would still trail Bush by 11 points (rather than the current 15).
Within the Democratic Party, the impact of Clinton fatigue on voter preferences is slight. Democrats who admit to being tired of Clinton favor Bradley over Gore by a 48% to 39% margin. However, since they account for only 19% of all Democrats their effect on the overall Democratic vote choice is small. Even among Democrats who approve of Clinton's job performance and say they are not tired of him, Gore receives just 55% of the vote, compared to 36% for Bradley.
Additionally, when Democrats are asked to agree or disagree with various reasons for their vote choice, very few Bradley voters, just 28%, admit that his distance from Bill Clinton is a key reason why they favor Bradley over Gore for the nomination. Of much greater importance is their admiration for Bradley's character, his intelligence, his political independence and the sense that he can bring needed change to government. Conversely, many Gore voters view the vice president's ties to Bill Clinton as a positive factor. Over half cite continuation of Clinton's policies as a key reason why they support Gore for the nomination, and 42% cite their admiration of Gore's loyalty to his president.
Bush's Formidable Appeal
There are several indicators in Gallup Poll data that Gore's weak
performance in pre-election surveys to date is due more to the
formidable appeal of George W. Bush, than to voter rejection of
Gore for his association with Bill Clinton.
Gore's image has remained relatively constant throughout the Clinton presidency, with just over half the public saying they have a favorable image of the vice president. While the percentage viewing Gore unfavorably has grown as he has become better known, his current rating of 54% favorable and 42% unfavorable is similar to the ratings he received in October 1997, months before Clinton's impeachment problems or any sense of fatigue with his presidency emerged. In sharp contrast, George W. Bush is viewed favorably by 70% of Americans, and unfavorably by only 25%.
Asked if each candidate's policies would move the country in the right or wrong direction, 64% predict Bush's policies would take the U.S. in the right direction, compared with only 52% who say the same for Gore. In fact, Gore fares worse on this measure than does Bill Clinton, whose policies are perceived as "right-headed" by 60% of Americans. And while Americans are evenly divided over whether the Republican Party or the Democratic Party would do a better job of keeping the country prosperous -- a measure that presumably taps perceptions of Bill Clinton's handling of the economy -- a solid majority chooses George W. Bush over Al Gore as the candidate who could do the better job with this important task. Thus, Gore underperforms his party on this critical performance measure -- at least in comparison with Governor Bush.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 976 adults, 18 years and older,
conducted October 8-10, 1999. For results based on this sample, one
can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus
3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
Next, please tell me if the following statement describes or does not describe you personally: You are tired of anyone or anything associated with Bill Clinton.
| Yes, describes | No, does not describe | |
|---|---|---|
| % | % | |
| National Adults | 43 | 56 |
| Men | 44 | 55 |
| Women | 43 | 56 |
| White | 47 | 52 |
| Nonwhite | 24 | 75 |
| 18-29 years | 50 | 49 |
| 30-49 | 41 | 58 |
| 50-64 | 43 | 56 |
| 65 and older | 41 | 57 |
| East | 31 | 68 |
| Midwest | 49 | 50 |
| South | 48 | 50 |
| West | 44 | 56 |
| Republican | 69 | 30 |
| Independent | 45 | 53 |
| Democratic | 19 | 81 |
| Clinton's Job Performance | ||
| Approve | 18 | 80 |
| Disapprove | 82 | 18 |
("No opinion" responses omitted)
Apart from whether you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president, what do you think of Clinton as a person? Would you say you approve or disapprove of him?
| Clinton Oct 8-10, 1999 |
Reagan Jul 10-13, 1987 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Approve | 35% | 72% |
| Disapprove | 62 | 21 |
| No opinion | 3 | 7 |
| 100% | 100% |
Would you like to see the next president generally continue with Bill Clinton's policies, or would you rather see the next president change direction from Clinton's policies?
| Clinton Oct 8-10, 1999 |
Reagan Jul 10-13, 1987 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Continue policies | 50% | 36% |
| Change direction | 47 | 57 |
| No opinion | 3 | 7 |
| 100% | 100% |
Do you think the policies being proposed by Bill Clinton would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction?
BASED ON -- 482 -- NATIONAL ADULTS ASKED FORM B; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Right direction | Wrong direction | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 | 60% | 35 | 5 |
| (NA) 1998 Oct 23-25 | 70% | 22 | 8 |
| (NA) 1997 Apr 18-20 | 56% | 33 | 11 |
| (LV) 1996 Oct 28-29 | 55% | 33 | 12 |
| (NA) 1996 Apr 9-10 | 55% | 35 | 10 |
| (NA) 1995 Dec 15-18 | 51% | 39 | 10 |
Next, do you think the policies being proposed by each of the following presidential candidates would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction? First, .... How about ... [ROTATED]?
| Right direction | Wrong direction | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. George W. Bush | 64% | 27 | 9 |
| B. Al Gore | 52% | 40 | 8 |
Which candidate, if elected president, do you think would do a better job of keeping the country prosperous -- [ROTATE: Al Gore or George W. Bush]?
BASED ON -- 482 -- NATIONAL ADULTS ASKED FORM B; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Al Gore | 37% |
| George W. Bush | 56 |
| NO DIFFERENCE (vol.) | 3 |
| No opinion | 4 |
| 100% |
Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. First, ... . How about ... [RANDOM ORDER]?
(NA) = National adults(RV) = Registered voters
(LV) = Likely voters
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Never Heard Of | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| Al Gore | ||||
| (NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 | 54 | 42 | 1 | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Sep 23-26 | 55 | 40 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Aug 16-18 | 58 | 37 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Aug 3-4 | 52 | 40 | 1 | 7 |
| (NA) 1999 Jul 22-25 | 53 | 35 | 1 | 11 |
| (NA) 1999 Jun 25-27 | 56 | 39 | 1 | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 30-May 2 | 55 | 37 | 1 | 7 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 13-14 | 54 | 39 | 1 | 6 |
| (NA) 1999 Feb 19-21 | 59 | 33 | 1 | 7 |
| (NA) 1999 Feb 4-8 | 61 | 31 | * | 8 |
| (NA) 1998 Dec 28-29 | 57 | 28 | 1 | 14 |
| (NA) 1998 Sep 14-15 | 56 | 32 | 2 | 10 |
| (NA) 1998 Feb 13-15 | 57 | 33 | 2 | 8 |
| (NA) 1998 Jan 30-Feb 1 | 62 | 31 | 1 | 6 |
| (NA) 1998 Jan 24-25 | 56 | 32 | 1 | 11 |
| (NA) 1998 Jan 23-24 | 55 | 33 | 1 | 11 |
| (NA) 1997 Dec 18-21 | 50 | 37 | 3 | 10 |
| (NA) 1997 Oct 27-29 | 53 | 38 | 1 | 8 |
| (NA) 1997 Oct 3-5 | 47 | 42 | 1 | 10 |
| (NA) 1997 Sep 25-28 | 51 | 39 | 2 | 8 |
| (NA) 1997 Sep 6-7 | 55 | 32 | 3 | 10 |
| (NA) 1997 Jun 26-29 | 57 | 32 | 1 | 10 |
| (NA) 1997 Apr 18-20 | 56 | 34 | 1 | 9 |
| (NA) 1997 Mar 24-26 | 57 | 31 | 2 | 10 |
| (NA) 1997 Jan 3-5 | 60 | 26 | 2 | 12 |
| (LV) 1996 Oct 26-29 | 61 | 31 | 1 | 7 |
| (RV) 1996 Aug 30-Sep 1 | 61 | 27 | 2 | 10 |
| (RV) 1996 Aug 28-29 | 60 | 26 | 2 | 12 |
| (RV) 1996 Aug 16-18 | 59 | 30 | * | 11 |
| (RV) 1996 Aug 11 | 59 | 29 | 1 | 11 |
| (NA) 1996 Jan 12-15 | 52 | 34 | 2 | 12 |
| (NA) 1995 Jan 16-18 | 57 | 29 | 3 | 11 |
| (NA) 1994 Sep 6-7 | 56 | 31 | 2 | 11 |
| (NA) 1994 Apr 22-24 | 60 | 28 | 2 | 10 |
| (NA) 1994 Mar 25-27 | 56 | 29 | 2 | 13 |
| (NA) 1994 Jan 15-17 | 62 | 26 | 3 | 9 |
| (NA) 1993 Nov 2-4 | 49 | 30 | -- | 21 |
| (NA) 1993 Jul 19-21 | 55 | 30 | -- | 15 |
| (NA) 1993 Apr 22-24 | 55 | 24 | -- | 21 |
| (NA) 1993 Jan 18-19 | 63 | 22 | -- | 15 |
| (NA) 1992 Nov 10-11 | 56 | 28 | -- | 16 |
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Never Heard Of | No opinion | |
| % | % | % | % | |
| Former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley | ||||
| (NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 | 53 | 20 | 9 | 18 |
| (NA) 1999 Sep 23-26 | 44 | 14 | 21 | 21 |
| (NA) 1999 Aug 16-18 | 48 | 11 | 18 | 23 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 13-14 | 46 | 10 | 20 | 24 |
| (NA) 1999 Feb 19-21 | 38 | 9 | 33 | 20 |
| Texas Governor George W. Bush | ||||
| (NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 | 70 | 25 | 1 | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 Sep 23-26 | 71 | 22 | 1 | 6 |
| (NA) 1999 Aug 16-18 | 68 | 21 | 1 | 10 |
| (NA) 1999 Jun 25-27 | 69 | 16 | 4 | 11 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 13-14 | 73 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| (NA) 1999 Feb 19-21 | 69 | 12 | 5 | 14 |
* less than 0.5%
(vol.) volunteered response